NY-16 Data for Progress: Bowman +10

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/davecatanese/status/1273215377510748160

[andjey]

Yeah, I will be very surprised if Engel wins. Also we need polls from NY-09, NY-15 and NY-17.

[OneJ]

Wonderful poll!

A few interesting findings from the crosstabs:
-Big gender gap
-Large age gap
-Undecideds lean Bowman (unsurprisingly just looking at the groups he's winning)
-Black voters backing the more progressive candidate over the establishment incumbent while white voters are doing the opposite.

Even before this poll, I figured that Bowman probably had the advantage and this poll pretty much confirms it. Engel's chances really aren't looking too great. This race is looking like a AOC-Crowley redux.

[Consuming is good, it's what we're made for]

Excellent!

[You Don’t Mess With The Zohran]

Bowman wins by more than AOC did at this point, I suspect.

[Pyro]

Wonderful. I hope it's right as Engel is booted out.

[The Mamdani Virus]

Engel+8 to Bowman+10 seems like a reasonable range for this race, but those people taking this poll or any other internal at face value and as an accurate measure of the race shouldn't be taken seriously. I'd say Bowman wins by a couple of points if the election was tomorrow, but I'm not confident about that at all, and I would be very shocked if the race landed outside of the margin of the two internals, also nearly a third undecided makes it even harder to take this at face value.

[Gracile]

Engel+8 to Bowman+10 seems like a reasonable range for this race, but those people taking this poll or any other internal at face value and as an accurate measure of the race shouldn't be taken seriously. I'd say Bowman wins by a couple of points if the election was tomorrow, but I'm not confident about that at all, and I would be very shocked if the race landed outside of the margin of the two internals, also nearly a third undecided makes it even harder to take this at face value.

Data For Progress was one of the most accurate pollsters during the Democratic primary, so I’d take these numbers more seriously than the internal poll (with no crosstabs, dates, etc.) that the Engel team is trying to claim.