Change Research: Biden +10% nationally, +1 in AZ, +7 in FL, +2 in MI, +2 in NC, +3 in PA, +4 in WI

[Non Swing Voter]

not just in the poll below but generally speaking Biden seems to be gaining a lot of ground in the 3 states he was perceived to be weaker in (Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina) while losing ground in the 3 stronger ones (Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan).  Though Michigan recently had some very large leads for him as well.  But conversely, the Arizona and Pennsylvania trends seem real while the Florida and Wisconsin ones do too.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/biden-leads-trump-in-2020-election-swing-states-cnbcchange-research-poll.html

[Non Swing Voter]

not just in the poll below but generally speaking Biden seems to be gaining a lot of ground in the 3 states he was perceived to be weaker in (Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina) while losing ground in the 3 stronger ones (Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan).  Though Michigan recently had some very large leads for him as well.  But conversely, the Arizona and Pennsylvania trends seem real while the Florida and Wisconsin ones do too.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/biden-leads-trump-in-2020-election-swing-states-cnbcchange-research-poll.html

Biden has some weak polling numbers - I expect him to lose AZ, NC, and FL. He has a chance at the Rust Belt. A Democrat should be doing much better than this [in a national crisis] and getting over 50% consistently to beat an incumbent president.

I disagree.  If anything I'm shocked at how well he's doing in Florida.  Also, the pandemic hasn't really hit Florida yet but it seems to be getting out of control there.  If covid doesn't improve in Florida before Election Day it might be really bad for Trump.  I don't think Trump has a path without Florida.