Change Research: Biden +10% nationally, +1 in AZ, +7 in FL, +2 in MI, +2 in NC, +3 in PA, +4 in WI

[ProgressiveModerate]

not just in the poll below but generally speaking Biden seems to be gaining a lot of ground in the 3 states he was perceived to be weaker in (Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina) while losing ground in the 3 stronger ones (Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan).  Though Michigan recently had some very large leads for him as well.  But conversely, the Arizona and Pennsylvania trends seem real while the Florida and Wisconsin ones do too.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/biden-leads-trump-in-2020-election-swing-states-cnbcchange-research-poll.html

Biden has some weak polling numbers - I expect him to lose AZ, NC, and FL. He has a chance at the Rust Belt. A Democrat should be doing much better than this and getting over 50% consistently to beat an incumbent president.

Biden has a 10% national average according to 538 (8.5% according to RCP), and he's leading by 7 in FL in this poll, and by 11 in FL in another poll. Stop talking out of your ass.

If anything, Biden has a better chance of winning FL than WI/PA based on polls. Your statement is 100% not based on facts, and 100% based on feelings

National average is biased and inflated. If you look at the states that matter he needs to focus on the Rust Belt. Historically, Florida votes for incumbents and it's the president's home state so he is favored. I can cite additional reasons as well.

First off, the "home state boost" doesn't really matter much especially in this case since Trump has only recently moved to FL and was never a politician or well known person from the state for a long time, like McCain with AZ, or Biden with PA. Also, FL, doesn't have a special affinity for incumbents, its just that incumbents usually win re-election. In 2004, Bush did better than in 2000, so it makes sense he won FL again. In 2012, Obama narrowly held onto the state that he won by a decent amount in 2008, and it narrrowed up. Trump barely won FL in 2016 by 1.2% in 2016, and there's a very good chance that he does worse than he did nationally in 2016, which automatically puts him at risk of losing FL. For refernce, it only voted 0.5 points to the right of PA, a state which the majority of people on this forum will flip bck to Biden. The state is at the very least competative for Biden, since he's leading Trump in pretty much every poll, some by a comfortable margin. "Gut feelings" are how you end up with very flawed forecasts because you avoid the data being presented.

[ProgressiveModerate]

not just in the poll below but generally speaking Biden seems to be gaining a lot of ground in the 3 states he was perceived to be weaker in (Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina) while losing ground in the 3 stronger ones (Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan).  Though Michigan recently had some very large leads for him as well.  But conversely, the Arizona and Pennsylvania trends seem real while the Florida and Wisconsin ones do too.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/biden-leads-trump-in-2020-election-swing-states-cnbcchange-research-poll.html

Biden has some weak polling numbers - I expect him to lose AZ, NC, and FL. He has a chance at the Rust Belt. A Democrat should be doing much better than this [in a national crisis] and getting over 50% consistently to beat an incumbent president.

Lol if the election was held today, based on polls, Biden would win with 334 EVs. How is that "weak polling numbers"?