Change Research: Biden +10% nationally, +1 in AZ, +7 in FL, +2 in MI, +2 in NC, +3 in PA, +4 in WI

[pppolitics]

not just in the poll below but generally speaking Biden seems to be gaining a lot of ground in the 3 states he was perceived to be weaker in (Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina) while losing ground in the 3 stronger ones (Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan).  Though Michigan recently had some very large leads for him as well.  But conversely, the Arizona and Pennsylvania trends seem real while the Florida and Wisconsin ones do too.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/biden-leads-trump-in-2020-election-swing-states-cnbcchange-research-poll.html

Biden has some weak polling numbers - I expect him to lose AZ, NC, and FL. He has a chance at the Rust Belt.

If you're gonna talk out of your ass, can you provide examples? I mean the last few Florida polls have had huge Biden leads, so much so that quite a few people here were even questioning it  

Florida is inelastic and some of Biden's leads are within the MOE. On 538, he has some polling numbers under 50%. He can't win FL with 48% or 47% of the vote.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/florida/

For example, a lot of the polls showing Biden with 50+ are small sample sizes while the larger ones show a competitive race.

Try again

Florida has elasticity score >1.00

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1272618296571985920