Change Research: Biden +10% nationally, +1 in AZ, +7 in FL, +2 in MI, +2 in NC, +3 in PA, +4 in WI (user search)
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  Change Research: Biden +10% nationally, +1 in AZ, +7 in FL, +2 in MI, +2 in NC, +3 in PA, +4 in WI (search mode)
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Author Topic: Change Research: Biden +10% nationally, +1 in AZ, +7 in FL, +2 in MI, +2 in NC, +3 in PA, +4 in WI  (Read 3105 times)
Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: 0.00


« on: June 17, 2020, 11:03:24 AM »

not just in the poll below but generally speaking Biden seems to be gaining a lot of ground in the 3 states he was perceived to be weaker in (Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina) while losing ground in the 3 stronger ones (Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan).  Though Michigan recently had some very large leads for him as well.  But conversely, the Arizona and Pennsylvania trends seem real while the Florida and Wisconsin ones do too.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/biden-leads-trump-in-2020-election-swing-states-cnbcchange-research-poll.html

Biden has some weak polling numbers - I expect him to lose AZ, NC, and FL. He has a chance at the Rust Belt. A Democrat should be doing much better than this [in a national crisis] and getting over 50% consistently to beat an incumbent president.
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Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: 0.00


« Reply #1 on: June 17, 2020, 11:07:54 AM »

not just in the poll below but generally speaking Biden seems to be gaining a lot of ground in the 3 states he was perceived to be weaker in (Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina) while losing ground in the 3 stronger ones (Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan).  Though Michigan recently had some very large leads for him as well.  But conversely, the Arizona and Pennsylvania trends seem real while the Florida and Wisconsin ones do too.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/biden-leads-trump-in-2020-election-swing-states-cnbcchange-research-poll.html

Biden has some weak polling numbers - I expect him to lose AZ, NC, and FL. He has a chance at the Rust Belt.

If you're gonna talk out of your ass, can you provide examples? I mean the last few Florida polls have had huge Biden leads, so much so that quite a few people here were even questioning it  

Florida is inelastic and some of Biden's leads are within the MOE. On 538, he has some polling numbers under 50%. He can't win FL with 48% or 47% of the vote.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/florida/

For example, a lot of the polls showing Biden with 50+ are small sample sizes while the larger ones show a competitive race.
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Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: 0.00


« Reply #2 on: June 17, 2020, 11:09:11 AM »

not just in the poll below but generally speaking Biden seems to be gaining a lot of ground in the 3 states he was perceived to be weaker in (Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina) while losing ground in the 3 stronger ones (Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan).  Though Michigan recently had some very large leads for him as well.  But conversely, the Arizona and Pennsylvania trends seem real while the Florida and Wisconsin ones do too.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/biden-leads-trump-in-2020-election-swing-states-cnbcchange-research-poll.html

Biden has some weak polling numbers - I expect him to lose AZ, NC, and FL. He has a chance at the Rust Belt. A Democrat should be doing much better than this and getting over 50% consistently to beat an incumbent president.


Biden has a 10% national average according to 538 (8.5% according to RCP), and he's leading by 7 in FL in this poll, and by 11 in FL in another poll. Stop talking out of your ass.

If anything, Biden has a better chance of winning FL than WI/PA based on polls. Your statement is 100% not based on facts, and 100% based on feelings

National average is biased and inflated. If you look at the states that matter he needs to focus on the Rust Belt. Historically, Florida votes for incumbents and it's the president's home state so he is favored. I can cite additional reasons as well.
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