Utah-Y2 Analytics: Trump +3

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1265306746689654784

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Utah President by Y2 Analytics on 2020-05-19

Summary: D: 41%, R: 44%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Xing]

Much as I’d like to see Bluetah become a reality, it’s not happening.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Their last poll only had Trump +5, but enough with Blutah, show us Blue Idaho and Wyoming next!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Users still talk about the MSN polls if they were real, online polls arent scientific,  or else we would have a Dem SCOTUS, Zogby online polls said Prez Kerry in 2004 and Prez Hilary in 2016 from a new source of polling in 2016.


Emerson polls are gonna be coming out, I will look at those

[pbrower2a]

Utah is definitely a state to watch out for in the near future.

If these numbers are anywhere near true, Ben McAdams should be fine.

Utah was reliably D for FDR and Truman. It was a firm New Deal State. Then Eisenhower courted the support of the LDS hierarchy, got it, and made Utah so firmly R as it is now.

Here's an oddity: in its demographics and social conditions, Utah is closer to New England than to the Deep and Mountain South. Non-Mormons may see Mormonism as a cranky religion, but Mormons do not go for the anti-intellectual demagoguery that Trump shows. Mormons handled Obergfell v. Hedges well. Utah seems to be dealing with COVID-19 like a typical Blue state. This is a well-educated state, which suggests a pattern that favors Democrats over a long time.

Know well: Trump did worse in Utah in getting a vote share for any Republican nominee for President since Thomas E. Dewey. Sure, Goldwater came close to winning Utah in 1964; even he got a bigger share of the vote altogether (49%)  than did Trump in 2016.

Strange things can happen in wave elections, and some polling suggests that Trump can lose "bigly" in November. What Mitt Romney said of Donald Trump in 2016 is true. It was an ugly portrait then and it has become an even uglier reality.

[Spark]

Junk.

[ProudModerate2]

The Biden team should not waste any time, money and resources here.
Zero.

[SN2903]

Junk it

[redjohn]

Red avatars will criticize a R+6 texas poll as trump-leaning garbage but seriously consider a poll showing Utah as a pure tossup... you love to see it

[ON Progressive]

Red avatars will criticize a R+6 texas poll as trump-leaning garbage but seriously consider a poll showing Utah as a pure tossup... you love to see it

The vast majority of the red avatars on this thread are saying this poll is unrealistic.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes due to there is no one running in the Gov race 70 to 30 R win

[Stockdale for Veep]

Romney voted for removal. Therefore, he should get his name on the ballot only in Utah to ensure Trump's defeat.

6D Mormon Chess

[President Johnson]

Romney voted for removal. Therefore, he should get his name on the ballot only in Utah to ensure Trump's defeat.

6D Mormon Chess

How would this ensure his defeat? Either Trump falls short of 270 electoral votes anyway (most likely), or it will throw the election in the House. Say, if only Pennsylvania and Michigan flip from 2016 and Wisconsin stays in his column (this would be 270 for Trump). Since state delegations are likely under Republican control beyond January 3, 2021, the House would reelect him. In addition, Trump could again play the victim of a rigged system and the swamp. Don't give him that. If Trump is above 276 electoral votes outright, Utah wouldn't matter the slightest bit.

Anyhow, the poll should be dismissed as junk. Utah won't be competitive despite Trump being a terrible fit for the state.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Not happening. Never happening.

[Panda Express]

Once Mormon King and Champion of Utah, Willard "Mitt" Romney endorses Biden, Utah will swing blue and, along with Arirzona, create an aesthetically pleasing blue splotch on the American map on Election night that spans from Colorado to California

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds are aggressively targeting FL, TX and AZ, and UT is fools gold to those states; consequently, just like the WVA poll was fools gold so the Ds dont target OH.

The Gov race will give Trump a 70 to 30 victory,  likewise in WVA, Justice and SMC will give Trump a 70 to 30 chance

[Hope For A New Era]

Do you all think Utah will trend like Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada have in the past? Or will the mormon vote keep it relatively conservative compared to other southwestern states? I have to think the impact of Californians moving to SLC will have an impact at some point.

Mormons themselves are rapidly trending left. Unsurprising, as they're a very educated, very middle-class demographic, and most of them live in suburbs. I doubt it will flip this year, but I definitely see potential for an Indiana-style surprise swing in a few years.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Y2 Analytics have done some kinds of education weighting for this poll and promised to include that in their future methodology.

[woodley park]

Isn't Utah likely going to be a light blue state by the 2030s?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Isn't Utah likely going to be a light blue state by the 2030s?

Not unless Roe v.s. Wade is shot down.

[pbrower2a]

This poll is even more favourable for Biden than the daily Microsoft/MSN poll ...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/polls

It’s probably the only poll because Microsoft/MSN is ca. 10-15% biased for Biden in every other state.

TRUMP is carrying UT 70 to 30 with Rs carrying the Gov race 70 to 30 MSN polls are online not phone polls and arent scientific

Romney beat Obama 70-30 because Romney is a Mormon.

McCain beat Obama 62-34, which shows the usual partisan divide between Republicans and Democrats in Utah.

Mormons take their moral values seriously, and if the choice is between a Christian and a rogue, they just might vote for the Christian. If Mormons had to choose between Barack Obama, whose family life is closer to Mormon values than is that of Donald Trump... then they would pick Obama.   

Democrats are going to play the Romney speech excoriating Trump.

I don't ordinarily give this as political advice... but I will say this of a Biden-Trump race: vote for the Christian. Sleazy business deals, divorcing wives because they no longer look like the Playmate of the Month, grabbing women by the crotch, and consorting with whores while, paying for abortions, and paying hush money are all inconsistent with Christianity.   So his his sacrilegious stunt of clearing the front of a church so that he can hold a Bible whose contents he does not know and whose moral directions he in no way follows as a suggestion of piety that he so blatantly lacks. 

Joe Biden is a devout Catholic. That is good enough for me.  (I would vote for a Jew if that were the choice).