Change Research: Biden +10% nationally, +1 in AZ, +7 in FL, +2 in MI, +2 in NC, +3 in PA, +4 in WI
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  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  Change Research: Biden +10% nationally, +1 in AZ, +7 in FL, +2 in MI, +2 in NC, +3 in PA, +4 in WI
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Author Topic: Change Research: Biden +10% nationally, +1 in AZ, +7 in FL, +2 in MI, +2 in NC, +3 in PA, +4 in WI  (Read 2785 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« on: June 17, 2020, 06:27:04 AM »

https://www.changeresearch.com/post/states-of-play-battleground-states-of-play-battleground-wave-7

Change Research/CNBC
June 12-14, 2020
1250 likely voters in the national sample
MoE for the national sample: 2.77%

Biden 51%
Trump 41%
Libertarian 3%
Green 2%
Would not vote 0%
Undecided 3%

2408 likely voters in the battleground state sample
MoE for the full battleground sample: 2%
MoE not given for individual states

AZ: 8% of the sample, ~193 voters
Biden 45%
Trump 44%
Libertarian/Green 5%

FL: 30% of the sample, ~722 voters
Biden 50%
Trump 43%
Libertarian/Green 3%

MI: 15% of the sample, ~361 voters
Biden 47%
Trump 45%
Libertarian/Green 3%

NC: 16% of the sample, ~385 voters
Biden 47%
Trump 45%
Libertarian/Green 1%

PA: 21% of the sample, ~501 voters
Biden 49%
Trump 46%
Libertarian/Green 3%

WI: 10% of the sample, ~241 voters
Biden 48%
Trump 44%
Libertarian/Green 5%
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: June 17, 2020, 06:31:59 AM »

Well, on first thought - if Change, which has been historically bullish on Trump, is now saying Biden +10 nationally, then you know that's huge.

State polls are still weird, but they've shifted towards Biden (glad they seemed to get their PA sample at least somewhat right I guess)

But Biden +7 in FL while only +3 in PA and +2 in MI (and +2 in NC) still doesn't jive.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #2 on: June 17, 2020, 06:56:35 AM »

State samples ouside of Florida are super small. Canít really take them too seriously.
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Georgia Democrat in 2023
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« Reply #3 on: June 17, 2020, 07:47:12 AM »

At least they got the PA Trump +4 out of the picture.  And RCP, to their credit, recorded the updated number--even though they are keeping the both Change Research readings in their averages.
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Buzz
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« Reply #4 on: June 17, 2020, 07:48:49 AM »

Nice to see polling from several key states.  State polls closer than I expected considering whatís all happening ATM.  Not terrible, but definitely not good either   
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: June 17, 2020, 07:52:00 AM »

Nice to see polling from several key states.  State polls closer than I expected considering whatís all happening ATM.  Not terrible, but definitely not good either  

If Trump loses WI or PA he is finished, never mind AZ, NC and FL. Trump is done
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Buzz
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« Reply #6 on: June 17, 2020, 08:02:56 AM »

Nice to see polling from several key states.  State polls closer than I expected considering whatís all happening ATM.  Not terrible, but definitely not good either  

If Trump loses WI or PA he is finished, never mind AZ, NC and FL. Trump is done
Yep, your right.  He might as well go ahead and concede now.  Down 2-3 points in several battlegrounds is just too much to make up in 4+ months.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: June 17, 2020, 08:07:40 AM »

Nice to see polling from several key states.  State polls closer than I expected considering whatís all happening ATM.  Not terrible, but definitely not good either   

The sample sizes for FL and PA are really the only meaningful ones here. Everything else is too small - and tbh, even FL and PA seem like they should be switched at the very least.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: June 17, 2020, 08:07:52 AM »

Nice to see polling from several key states.  State polls closer than I expected considering whatís all happening ATM.  Not terrible, but definitely not good either  

If Trump loses WI or PA he is finished, never mind AZ, NC and FL. Trump is done
Yep, your right.  He might as well go ahead and concede now.  Down 2-3 points in several battlegrounds is just too much to make up in 4+ months.

He is behind by 7 in FL and or AZ, if he loses FL , with 29 EC votes it makes up WI and PA, that was my point. He has no way to win  even if he wins WI and PA. He is gonna lose FL, MI, CO, NV and VA which puts Biden at 270
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Buzz
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« Reply #9 on: June 17, 2020, 08:14:03 AM »

Nice to see polling from several key states.  State polls closer than I expected considering whatís all happening ATM.  Not terrible, but definitely not good either   

The sample sizes for FL and PA are really the only meaningful ones here. Everything else is too small - and tbh, even FL and PA seem like they should be switched at the very least.
Agreed.  Also this is a C- pollster according so 538 with a 1.1+ D bias.  All these results should obviously be taken with a large grain of salt
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #10 on: June 17, 2020, 08:26:35 AM »

Nice to see polling from several key states.  State polls closer than I expected considering whatís all happening ATM.  Not terrible, but definitely not good either   

The sample sizes for FL and PA are really the only meaningful ones here. Everything else is too small - and tbh, even FL and PA seem like they should be switched at the very least.
Agreed.  Also this is a C- pollster according so 538 with a 1.1+ D bias.  All these results should obviously be taken with a large grain of salt

Really the only thing I take from the Change polls in general is the trendline, and this poll had Biden +3 overall not that long ago. So it just confirms what we're seeing elsewhere
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Nyvin
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« Reply #11 on: June 17, 2020, 08:44:13 AM »

Kind of hard to believe Biden is leading by 7 in FL but only 3 in PA.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #12 on: June 17, 2020, 10:05:45 AM »

not just in the poll below but generally speaking Biden seems to be gaining a lot of ground in the 3 states he was perceived to be weaker in (Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina) while losing ground in the 3 stronger ones (Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan).  Though Michigan recently had some very large leads for him as well.  But conversely, the Arizona and Pennsylvania trends seem real while the Florida and Wisconsin ones do too.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/biden-leads-trump-in-2020-election-swing-states-cnbcchange-research-poll.html
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #13 on: June 17, 2020, 10:35:43 AM »

Itís basically impossible that Biden leads by 10 nationally, but by such tiny margins in swing states.

It would only be possible if he also collapses in deep red states.
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Spark
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« Reply #14 on: June 17, 2020, 11:03:24 AM »

not just in the poll below but generally speaking Biden seems to be gaining a lot of ground in the 3 states he was perceived to be weaker in (Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina) while losing ground in the 3 stronger ones (Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan).  Though Michigan recently had some very large leads for him as well.  But conversely, the Arizona and Pennsylvania trends seem real while the Florida and Wisconsin ones do too.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/biden-leads-trump-in-2020-election-swing-states-cnbcchange-research-poll.html

Biden has some weak polling numbers - I expect him to lose AZ, NC, and FL. He has a chance at the Rust Belt. A Democrat should be doing much better than this [in a national crisis] and getting over 50% consistently to beat an incumbent president.
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Holmes
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« Reply #15 on: June 17, 2020, 11:05:07 AM »

not just in the poll below but generally speaking Biden seems to be gaining a lot of ground in the 3 states he was perceived to be weaker in (Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina) while losing ground in the 3 stronger ones (Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan).  Though Michigan recently had some very large leads for him as well.  But conversely, the Arizona and Pennsylvania trends seem real while the Florida and Wisconsin ones do too.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/biden-leads-trump-in-2020-election-swing-states-cnbcchange-research-poll.html

Biden has some weak polling numbers - I expect him to lose AZ, NC, and FL. He has a chance at the Rust Belt.

If you're gonna talk out of your ass, can you provide examples? I mean the last few Florida polls have had huge Biden leads, so much so that quite a few people here were even questioning it 
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DTC
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« Reply #16 on: June 17, 2020, 11:05:31 AM »

not just in the poll below but generally speaking Biden seems to be gaining a lot of ground in the 3 states he was perceived to be weaker in (Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina) while losing ground in the 3 stronger ones (Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan).  Though Michigan recently had some very large leads for him as well.  But conversely, the Arizona and Pennsylvania trends seem real while the Florida and Wisconsin ones do too.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/biden-leads-trump-in-2020-election-swing-states-cnbcchange-research-poll.html

Biden has some weak polling numbers - I expect him to lose AZ, NC, and FL. He has a chance at the Rust Belt. A Democrat should be doing much better than this and getting over 50% consistently to beat an incumbent president.


Biden has a 10% national average according to 538 (8.5% according to RCP), and he's leading by 7 in FL in this poll, and by 11 in FL in another poll. Stop talking out of your ass.

If anything, Biden has a better chance of winning FL than WI/PA based on polls. Your statement is 100% not based on facts, and 100% based on feelings
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Spark
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« Reply #17 on: June 17, 2020, 11:07:54 AM »

not just in the poll below but generally speaking Biden seems to be gaining a lot of ground in the 3 states he was perceived to be weaker in (Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina) while losing ground in the 3 stronger ones (Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan).  Though Michigan recently had some very large leads for him as well.  But conversely, the Arizona and Pennsylvania trends seem real while the Florida and Wisconsin ones do too.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/biden-leads-trump-in-2020-election-swing-states-cnbcchange-research-poll.html

Biden has some weak polling numbers - I expect him to lose AZ, NC, and FL. He has a chance at the Rust Belt.

If you're gonna talk out of your ass, can you provide examples? I mean the last few Florida polls have had huge Biden leads, so much so that quite a few people here were even questioning it  

Florida is inelastic and some of Biden's leads are within the MOE. On 538, he has some polling numbers under 50%. He can't win FL with 48% or 47% of the vote.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/florida/

For example, a lot of the polls showing Biden with 50+ are small sample sizes while the larger ones show a competitive race.
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Spark
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« Reply #18 on: June 17, 2020, 11:09:11 AM »

not just in the poll below but generally speaking Biden seems to be gaining a lot of ground in the 3 states he was perceived to be weaker in (Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina) while losing ground in the 3 stronger ones (Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan).  Though Michigan recently had some very large leads for him as well.  But conversely, the Arizona and Pennsylvania trends seem real while the Florida and Wisconsin ones do too.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/biden-leads-trump-in-2020-election-swing-states-cnbcchange-research-poll.html

Biden has some weak polling numbers - I expect him to lose AZ, NC, and FL. He has a chance at the Rust Belt. A Democrat should be doing much better than this and getting over 50% consistently to beat an incumbent president.


Biden has a 10% national average according to 538 (8.5% according to RCP), and he's leading by 7 in FL in this poll, and by 11 in FL in another poll. Stop talking out of your ass.

If anything, Biden has a better chance of winning FL than WI/PA based on polls. Your statement is 100% not based on facts, and 100% based on feelings

National average is biased and inflated. If you look at the states that matter he needs to focus on the Rust Belt. Historically, Florida votes for incumbents and it's the president's home state so he is favored. I can cite additional reasons as well.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #19 on: June 17, 2020, 11:13:58 AM »

Kind of hard to believe Biden is leading by 7 in FL but only 3 in PA.

They arent polling the Senate races, that's why, AZ,,NC and MI would be more tilted towards Biden since Cunningham,  Kelly and Peter's are leading.  But, I will take the FL 7 poll, the race is basically over If Trump loses AZ, IA,, OH or FL
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #20 on: June 17, 2020, 11:37:01 AM »

Itís basically impossible that Biden leads by 10 nationally, but by such tiny margins in swing states.

It would only be possible if he also collapses in deep red states.

It's basically impossible that Change Research is right and everyone else is wrong.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #21 on: June 17, 2020, 11:37:04 AM »

not just in the poll below but generally speaking Biden seems to be gaining a lot of ground in the 3 states he was perceived to be weaker in (Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina) while losing ground in the 3 stronger ones (Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan).  Though Michigan recently had some very large leads for him as well.  But conversely, the Arizona and Pennsylvania trends seem real while the Florida and Wisconsin ones do too.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/biden-leads-trump-in-2020-election-swing-states-cnbcchange-research-poll.html

Biden has some weak polling numbers - I expect him to lose AZ, NC, and FL. He has a chance at the Rust Belt.

If you're gonna talk out of your ass, can you provide examples? I mean the last few Florida polls have had huge Biden leads, so much so that quite a few people here were even questioning it  

Florida is inelastic and some of Biden's leads are within the MOE. On 538, he has some polling numbers under 50%. He can't win FL with 48% or 47% of the vote.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/florida/

For example, a lot of the polls showing Biden with 50+ are small sample sizes while the larger ones show a competitive race.

Try again

Florida has elasticity score >1.00

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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #22 on: June 17, 2020, 11:40:33 AM »

not just in the poll below but generally speaking Biden seems to be gaining a lot of ground in the 3 states he was perceived to be weaker in (Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina) while losing ground in the 3 stronger ones (Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan).  Though Michigan recently had some very large leads for him as well.  But conversely, the Arizona and Pennsylvania trends seem real while the Florida and Wisconsin ones do too.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/biden-leads-trump-in-2020-election-swing-states-cnbcchange-research-poll.html

Biden has some weak polling numbers - I expect him to lose AZ, NC, and FL. He has a chance at the Rust Belt. A Democrat should be doing much better than this and getting over 50% consistently to beat an incumbent president.


Biden has a 10% national average according to 538 (8.5% according to RCP), and he's leading by 7 in FL in this poll, and by 11 in FL in another poll. Stop talking out of your ass.

If anything, Biden has a better chance of winning FL than WI/PA based on polls. Your statement is 100% not based on facts, and 100% based on feelings

National average is biased and inflated. If you look at the states that matter he needs to focus on the Rust Belt. Historically, Florida votes for incumbents and it's the president's home state so he is favored. I can cite additional reasons as well.

First off, the "home state boost" doesn't really matter much especially in this case since Trump has only recently moved to FL and was never a politician or well known person from the state for a long time, like McCain with AZ, or Biden with PA. Also, FL, doesn't have a special affinity for incumbents, its just that incumbents usually win re-election. In 2004, Bush did better than in 2000, so it makes sense he won FL again. In 2012, Obama narrowly held onto the state that he won by a decent amount in 2008, and it narrrowed up. Trump barely won FL in 2016 by 1.2% in 2016, and there's a very good chance that he does worse than he did nationally in 2016, which automatically puts him at risk of losing FL. For refernce, it only voted 0.5 points to the right of PA, a state which the majority of people on this forum will flip bck to Biden. The state is at the very least competative for Biden, since he's leading Trump in pretty much every poll, some by a comfortable margin. "Gut feelings" are how you end up with very flawed forecasts because you avoid the data being presented.
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #23 on: June 17, 2020, 11:41:20 AM »

not just in the poll below but generally speaking Biden seems to be gaining a lot of ground in the 3 states he was perceived to be weaker in (Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina) while losing ground in the 3 stronger ones (Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan).  Though Michigan recently had some very large leads for him as well.  But conversely, the Arizona and Pennsylvania trends seem real while the Florida and Wisconsin ones do too.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/biden-leads-trump-in-2020-election-swing-states-cnbcchange-research-poll.html

Biden has some weak polling numbers - I expect him to lose AZ, NC, and FL. He has a chance at the Rust Belt. A Democrat should be doing much better than this [in a national crisis] and getting over 50% consistently to beat an incumbent president.

Stop doing drugs.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #24 on: June 17, 2020, 11:43:44 AM »

not just in the poll below but generally speaking Biden seems to be gaining a lot of ground in the 3 states he was perceived to be weaker in (Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina) while losing ground in the 3 stronger ones (Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan).  Though Michigan recently had some very large leads for him as well.  But conversely, the Arizona and Pennsylvania trends seem real while the Florida and Wisconsin ones do too.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/biden-leads-trump-in-2020-election-swing-states-cnbcchange-research-poll.html

Biden has some weak polling numbers - I expect him to lose AZ, NC, and FL. He has a chance at the Rust Belt. A Democrat should be doing much better than this [in a national crisis] and getting over 50% consistently to beat an incumbent president.

Lol if the election was held today, based on polls, Biden would win with 334 EVs. How is that "weak polling numbers"?
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