I'd hedge a bet that he'd flip NC and nothing else.
He'd have flipped NC and IN and maybe FL. That's a big maybe. With a really good campaign and a slip up from Obama, they MIGHT have even flipped VA.
McCain lost not because of Sarah Palin, but because his own campaign was so poor. McCain "suspended" his campaign to "work on the financial crisis", but when it came time to present solutions, McCain really didn't present any. That failure made him look like a guy who really wasn't the man of the hour. (I decided in the voting booth to vote for McCain, based on my admiration for his military service and his willingness to deviate from orthodoxy over the course of his career, but it was in spite of his campaign.) McCain was, however, the STRONGEST GOP candidate in 2008; every poll gave him a chance against Obama while all of the other GOP candidates were sure losers.
A better question to ask is whether or not Joe Lieberman would have been a better running mate for McCain. I believe he would have been the best choice, and a McCain/Lieberman ticket was the GOP's only chance of winning. (A side effect of that would have been Lieberman switching to the GOP in mid-term and flipping the Senate back to the GOP.) That, too, would have been tough sledding, but it would have been the best shot. The Movement Conservative GOP wouldn't go for that, however.
