AK-AL: Data for Progress Poll - Galvin +1

[Hassan 2022]

https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1272915158004895744

Galvin - 43
Young - 42

589 likely voters - text to web
May 21-27
MOE +/- 4.0

Thoughts on this race? Obviously Young is favored here, but Alaska elections are weird and Galvin did pretty well here in 2018.

[The Mamdani Virus]

Lean R, but Young outperforms Sullivan by a point or two, my guess is Young+8 and Sullivan+6

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

With respect to General Elections, Don Young's closest Congressional victory was his first. In almost 50 years, he's never again been held to his first winning margin.

He could be beatable, but is something of an electoral titan.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Great news, it's funny Progressive Moderate predicted a blue wave in AK and at same time he predicts Rs to hold Senate.

[KaiserDave]

Great news, it's funny Progressive Moderate predicted a blue wave in AK and at same time he predicts Rs to hold Senate.

OC please pass judgement on me I need to know my worthiness.

[Canis]

Did they poll Ak Sen?

[Mr.Phips]

Lol, there were polls in 2018 showing Don Young losing.  He never does.

[NewYorkExpress]

I can easily see Sullivan winning and Don Young losing.

Don Young is corrupt, has a horrific temper, and will drive Alaska Democrats and Independents to the polls to vote against him, in ways Sullivan won't.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I can easily see Sullivan winning and Don Young losing.

Don Young is corrupt, has a horrific temper, and will drive Alaska Democrats and Independents to the polls to vote against him, in ways Sullivan won't.

But think of the pork! Young has been far more effective in acquiring that, hasn't he? That's what's served him well in moments where his corruption has been laid bare far more obviously than it has been in this cycle.

[NewYorkExpress]

I can easily see Sullivan winning and Don Young losing.

Don Young is corrupt, has a horrific temper, and will drive Alaska Democrats and Independents to the polls to vote against him, in ways Sullivan won't.

But think of the pork! Young has been far more effective in acquiring that, hasn't he? That's what's served him well in moments where his corruption has been laid bare far more obviously than it has been in this cycle.

Give Sullivan, Galvin or Gross twenty years and they can acquire the same amount of pork-barrel spending that Don Young has.

[Calthrina950]

This race is fools gold for the Democrats, as it has been for the past 47 years. Don Young will win yet another term, even if Dan Sullivan is upset by Al Gross, and will continue to serve in the House until he is carried out in a gurney. Young is erratic and corrupt, but he has built close ties with many of Alaska's constituencies and has always brought home "the goods" from Washington D.C. And for many Alaskans, this is all that matters.

[The Arizonan]

This race is fools gold for the Democrats, as it has been for the past 47 years. Don Young will win yet another term, even if Dan Sullivan is upset by Al Gross, and will continue to serve in the House until he is carried out in a gurney. Young is erratic and corrupt, but he has built close ties with many of Alaska's constituencies and has always brought home "the goods" from Washington D.C. And for many Alaskans, this is all that matters.

If Don Young loses, then I’m going to quote this post.

[Calthrina950]

This race is fools gold for the Democrats, as it has been for the past 47 years. Don Young will win yet another term, even if Dan Sullivan is upset by Al Gross, and will continue to serve in the House until he is carried out in a gurney. Young is erratic and corrupt, but he has built close ties with many of Alaska's constituencies and has always brought home "the goods" from Washington D.C. And for many Alaskans, this is all that matters.

If Don Young loses, then I’m going to quote this post.

You're free to do so. If he does lose, he would be the first Dean of the House in almost 90 years to lose reelection. One can never count things out, but the balance of the past half-century leads me to believe that he has the advantage.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

This race is fools gold for the Democrats, as it has been for the past 47 years. Don Young will win yet another term, even if Dan Sullivan is upset by Al Gross, and will continue to serve in the House until he is carried out in a gurney. Young is erratic and corrupt, but he has built close ties with many of Alaska's constituencies and has always brought home "the goods" from Washington D.C. And for many Alaskans, this is all that matters.

If Don Young loses, then I’m going to quote this post.

Normal trends dont apply to Recessions, that's why Dems almost won KY in 2008, in another Recession. In a 10.1 percent unemployment,  where Rs took 60 House seats in 2010, Dems can net more Congressional and Senate seats and expand their majority 🤩🤩🤩 including AK. And Galloway can even win in MO

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

It’s probably worth investing at least a bit into this race.

[Mr.Phips]

This race is fools gold for the Democrats, as it has been for the past 47 years. Don Young will win yet another term, even if Dan Sullivan is upset by Al Gross, and will continue to serve in the House until he is carried out in a gurney. Young is erratic and corrupt, but he has built close ties with many of Alaska's constituencies and has always brought home "the goods" from Washington D.C. And for many Alaskans, this is all that matters.

If Don Young loses, then I’m going to quote this post.

Normal trends dont apply to Recessions, that's why Dems almost won KY in 2008, in another Recession. In a 10.1 percent unemployment,  where Rs took 60 House seats in 2010, Dems can net more Congressional and Senate seats and expand their majority 🤩🤩🤩 including AK. And Galloway can even win in MO

Then why didn’t Young lose in 2008?  And don’t blame Palin, Young won by a solid margin after trailing by double digits in polls.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Due to fact Murkowski didnt create the 1K per month for residents until recently, after the 2008 Recession. The UBI benefits are getting traction, since the Covid 19 is a long term problem.

AK is the only state to use its oil revenues to give its residents 1K Per month. I didnt know that AK did this until I moved to CA and people have family in AK, here

[Abolish ICE]

Lol, there were polls in 2018 showing Don Young losing.  He never does.

I mean, he won by less than 7% despite the race not really being on most people's radar and has had some close calls over the years.  He's definitely favored, but it this political environment, he could go down.

[Suburbia]

This race is fools gold for the Democrats, as it has been for the past 47 years. Don Young will win yet another term, even if Dan Sullivan is upset by Al Gross, and will continue to serve in the House until he is carried out in a gurney. Young is erratic and corrupt, but he has built close ties with many of Alaska's constituencies and has always brought home "the goods" from Washington D.C. And for many Alaskans, this is all that matters.

So basically he is the Alaskan McConnell.

Begich was lucky to defeat Stevens in 2008

[walleye26]

What was Young’s first victory margin?

[Strong Candidate]

What was Young’s first victory margin?

2 points in a special election.


And yeah, while this is a good poll, Young is a real survivor. In 2008 he was a serious Democratic target who was viewed as an outright underdog and he still won. He has the hardiness of a cockroach and a proven ability to win Native American crossover votes.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This race is fools gold for the Democrats, as it has been for the past 47 years. Don Young will win yet another term, even if Dan Sullivan is upset by Al Gross, and will continue to serve in the House until he is carried out in a gurney. Young is erratic and corrupt, but he has built close ties with many of Alaska's constituencies and has always brought home "the goods" from Washington D.C. And for many Alaskans, this is all that matters.

So basically he is the Alaskan McConnell.

Begich was lucky to defeat Stevens in 2008

Traditionally, he has been much more vulnerable to primary challenges than McConnell. A more key difference is that he can only conduct so much pork barreling and has to use his own political talents (and threats to John Boehner at knifepoint) to win his bridges to nowhere. As Senate Majority Leader, McConnell can summon a disgusting amount of pork at a moment's notice. Don Young's corruption is genuinely impressive, but Mitch is playing the game of Congress on easy mode with cheats enabled.