GA-PPP: Ossoff +1

[brucejoel99]

Idk how November plays out, but as of today, GA is closer than people think. If the election were held today, I wouldn't be surprised if Ossoff flipped the seat.

[Calthrina950]

Georgia-Regular is clearly a Tossup, as is Georgia-Special. If I were forced to say who would win right now, it would be Perdue. However, it is clear that he is in serious jeopardy, and Ossoff could force him to a runoff if he does not win outright in November.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Even if Ossoff beats Purdue in November, I still don't see how he clears 50% and avoids a runoff.

And I don't see how Ossoff wins a January runoff, especially if Senate control is in jeopardy.

[We Live in Black and White]

I feel like the underappreciated strength behind Ossoff is the fact that he was the first person to start cracking the very suburbs in which Perdue is supposedly so strong.

[Hammy]

Do 69% of Georgians really live in the Atlanta metro area? I think it’s just slightly over 50%.

It would probably depend on how the Metro area is defined and which counties are included, it seems to vary from source to source.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ossoff is looking more and more electable; whereas, the other GA is looking more unlikely as this point.

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm still not sold on Dems winning GA, just like TX. I believe it will flip after 2020 and become similar to VA, with growing suburbs trending D and making it increasingly difficult for the GOP to win.

Even if Ossoff beats Purdue in November, I still don't see how he clears 50% and avoids a runoff.

And I don't see how Ossoff wins a January runoff, especially if Senate control is in jeopardy.

Wait... the runoff is in January? In 2008, it was in December?

[jamestroll]

Lots of bad takes in this thread. Even if Sanders was chosen as the nominee I doubt there would be much, if any, movement to Trump and the GOP in suburban Georgia.

[Harvey Updyke Jr🌹]

New Poll: Georgia Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2020-06-13

Summary: D: 45%, R: 44%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[GeorgiaModerate]

Do 69% of Georgians really live in the Atlanta metro area? I think it’s just slightly over 50%.

It would probably depend on how the Metro area is defined and which counties are included, it seems to vary from source to source.

2019 population estimates:

State of Georgia - 10.6 million

ARC (Atlanta Regional Commission) 10-county region (Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, DeKalb, Douglas, Fayette, Fulton, Gwinnett, Henry, Rockdale) - 4.6 million

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta MSA (29 counties) - 6.0 million

Atlanta–Athens/Clarke–Sandy Springs CSA (39 counties) - 6.9 million

IMO the MSA feels like the "best" definition of metro Atlanta.

[Xing]

Why did they only poll Fulton county? If they had bothered to poll ancestrally Republican Cobb and Gwinnett counties, Remarkably Inoffensive Incumbent David Perdue would be ahead by double digits.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Even if Ossoff beats Purdue in November, I still don't see how he clears 50% and avoids a runoff.

And I don't see how Ossoff wins a January runoff, especially if Senate control is in jeopardy.

Wait... the runoff is in January? In 2008, it was in December?

The runoff will be held on January 5th, 2021.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems have IA, NC, MT and KS to makeup for Senate control. Hopefully, it wont come to that. Bullock and Bollier and Greenfield are wave insurance

[wbrocks67]

We're gonna get 5 more Ossoff +1 or 2 polls and people will still be yelling Tilt R

[South Dakota Democrat]

Even if Ossoff beats Purdue in November, I still don't see how he clears 50% and avoids a runoff.

And I don't see how Ossoff wins a January runoff, especially if Senate control is in jeopardy.

Wait... the runoff is in January? In 2008, it was in December?

The runoff will be held on January 5th, 2021.

Are you sure?  New congressional terms begin January 3.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Even if Ossoff beats Purdue in November, I still don't see how he clears 50% and avoids a runoff.

And I don't see how Ossoff wins a January runoff, especially if Senate control is in jeopardy.

Wait... the runoff is in January? In 2008, it was in December?

The runoff will be held on January 5th, 2021.

Are you sure?  New congressional terms begin January 3.

Yes, it is the first Tuesday of January. If it goes to a runoff, no Senator from Georgia will be seated at the beginning of the new Congress until the runoff determines a winner.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia

[jamestroll]

Why did they only poll Fulton county? If they had bothered to poll ancestrally Republican Cobb and Gwinnett counties, Remarkably Inoffensive Incumbent David Perdue would be ahead by double digits.

What are you talking about? I really think Gwinnett County is done for the GOP.

I could see Cobb voting for a Republican in a statewide landslide or if a Republican is winning the national popular vote. But I am 100% certain Ossoff will win Gwinnett and 80% certain that he will win Cobb.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Why did they only poll Fulton county? If they had bothered to poll ancestrally Republican Cobb and Gwinnett counties, Remarkably Inoffensive Incumbent David Perdue would be ahead by double digits.

What are you talking about? I really think Gwinnett County is done for the GOP.

I could see Cobb voting for a Republican in a statewide landslide or if a Republican is winning the national popular vote. But I am 100% certain Ossoff will win Gwinnett and 80% certain that he will win Cobb.

They’re being sarcastic because R’s on this forum have insisted that Perdue will somehow reverse Kemp’s abhorrent performance in the Atlanta Metro in 2018 and even do better than Trump 2016. Completely delusional.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Even if Ossoff beats Purdue in November, I still don't see how he clears 50% and avoids a runoff.

And I don't see how Ossoff wins a January runoff, especially if Senate control is in jeopardy.

Wait... the runoff is in January? In 2008, it was in December?

The runoff will be held on January 5th, 2021.

Are you sure?  New congressional terms begin January 3.

Yes, it is the first Tuesday of January. If it goes to a runoff, no Senator from Georgia will be seated at the beginning of the new Congress until the runoff determines a winner.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia

Interesting.  Wonder why they do it this way.

[Adam Griffin]

Biden's probably going to need to win by 3-4 points for either Senate candidate to have a shot at clearing 50% in November. Given the runoff concept for non-presidential races + standard drop-off dynamics in GA, it's very difficult to see Ossoff earning a majority if Biden doesn't (and even harder for Warnock, given there's still some evidence in GA of black under-performance & there's like 8 other Democrats on the ballot in his race). Biden can probably win the state with as little as 48.5% under the right circumstances, but Ossoff and Warnock don't have that same luxury.

Still, I guess some Democrats will be able to celebrate potential pyrrhic victories if polls like this are accurate and the Democratic Senate candidates earn the most votes in November? Even in '18, we saw that runoffs = death for Democrats, so no need to delve into "2008 was a lifetime ago" dialog.

[Adam Griffin]

Do 69% of Georgians really live in the Atlanta metro area? I think it’s just slightly over 50%.

65% of Georgia lived in the ATL media market in 2010; I'm sure that number has grown by at least 2-3 percentage points since (plus a lot of rural downstate doesn't produce turnout matching its population), so if they're using media markets as (quasi)delineators, then it's accurate.

EDIT: yeah, after closer inspection, I'm pretty sure PPP's regional categories line up as such (they consolidated Columbus + all the other partial media markets into "Other"):

[Bismarck]

Pretty sure Ossof will be the first non Christian senator  in the Deep South since Judah Benjamin before the civil war. Does that matter to swing voters in a state like Georgia that still has a huge evangelical presence?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Pretty sure Ossof will be the first non Christian senator  in the Deep South since Judah Benjamin before the civil war. Does that matter to swing voters in a state like Georgia that still has a huge evangelical presence?

It will matter as much as mattered that Stacey Abrams was a larger, Black woman with no husband or children when many said she would do worse than Jason Carter.

[SN2903]

Lean R

[WD]

Lean R

Ossoff is narrowly leading, this is a tossup.