GA-PPP: Biden +2

[Adam Griffin]

Undecideds in Georgia are notoriously R-leaning, right? So the closer Biden is to 50%, the better.

They were (on the order of 2:1 to 3:1) in every election prior to 2018, when they finally broke for Abrams slightly. Historically, Democrats needed to be leading in aggregate polling by 3 or more to win given that factor, which may still be true given voter disenfranchisement now.


However and on that note:

[Roblox]

Actually Ohio and Iowa have a better chance of flipping because I met a plumber guy named Jack who is angry about not being able to hang out in rust belt diners due to covid-19.

[Orwell]

Actually Ohio and Iowa have a better chance of flipping because I met a plumber guy named Jack who is angry about not being able to hang out in rust belt diners due to covid-19.

This is a serious thing please do not underestimate this effect, I know someone who eats breakfast at the same place, same time, same seat every Sunday morning and he hasn't been able to go to the diner in 2 months he is voting for Biden of course.