GA-PPP: Biden +2
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Author Topic: GA-PPP: Biden +2  (Read 3131 times)
LimoLiberal
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« on: June 16, 2020, 10:32:03 AM »
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6945877-GeorgiaResults1-1.html

Biden - 48
Trump - 46
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1 on: June 16, 2020, 10:34:17 AM »
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Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
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« Reply #2 on: June 16, 2020, 10:34:53 AM »
This is a good day for NUT polls
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The Mikado
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« Reply #3 on: June 16, 2020, 10:35:40 AM »
Cue the skeptic brigade to say that GA is Safe R somehow.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #4 on: June 16, 2020, 10:36:14 AM »
Nah, Perdue’s Inoffensive Incumbent coattails will make GA even safer for Trump than it already is. I mean, maybe the R advantage will be down to 0.46% in 2048, but it’s just not there yet.
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YE
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« Reply #5 on: June 16, 2020, 10:39:55 AM »
But I was told GA isn’t there yet.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #6 on: June 16, 2020, 10:40:35 AM »
BLUGIA!
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #7 on: June 16, 2020, 10:41:51 AM »
This doesn't look egregiously off on the education weighting. Maybe marginally too college educated but not enough to change the topline by more than a point (if that).
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Buzz
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« Reply #8 on: June 16, 2020, 10:52:52 AM »
In line with current polling.  Trump will win by 1-2 on Election Day.  Tilt R
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #9 on: June 16, 2020, 10:56:51 AM »
Holy sh**t
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Holmes
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« Reply #10 on: June 16, 2020, 10:58:26 AM »
Undecideds in Georgia are notoriously R-leaning, right? So the closer Biden is to 50%, the better.
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YE
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« Reply #11 on: June 16, 2020, 11:01:14 AM »
Quote from: Holmes on June 16, 2020, 10:58:26 AM
Undecideds in Georgia are notoriously R-leaning, right? So the closer Biden is to 50%, the better.

They were in 2008 but the coalitions in the state are very different now.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #12 on: June 16, 2020, 11:04:06 AM »
The primary turnout is worth paying attention to. Democrats really do have enthusiasm on their side going into this.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #13 on: June 16, 2020, 11:04:48 AM »
Be still, my beating heart.
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soundchaser
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« Reply #14 on: June 16, 2020, 11:05:34 AM »
Quote from: Buzz on June 16, 2020, 10:52:52 AM
In line with current polling.  Trump will win by 1-2 on Election Day.  Tilt R

A poll that has my opponent up by several points is good, actually.
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #15 on: June 16, 2020, 11:06:07 AM »
Quote from: Buzz on June 16, 2020, 10:52:52 AM
In line with current polling.  Trump will win by 1-2 on Election Day.  Tilt R

If Trump wins Georgia by 1-2, he's losing the electoral college.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #16 on: June 16, 2020, 11:10:44 AM »


all credit to Griff for this beautiful gif, of course
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #17 on: June 16, 2020, 11:12:43 AM »
Quote from: Holmes on June 16, 2020, 10:58:26 AM
Undecideds in Georgia are notoriously R-leaning, right? So the closer Biden is to 50%, the better.
I don’t think so, the polls in 2016 and 2018 were very accurate in Georgia. The 2014 polls underestimated the Republicans by a few points but nothing major.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #18 on: June 16, 2020, 11:17:56 AM »
Seems about right. Nearly every poll has been tied or Biden up 1-2.

And the fact that Ossoff has actually now led Perdue in multiple polls is something too.
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BobbieMac
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« Reply #19 on: June 16, 2020, 11:22:19 AM »
Completely in line with national polling (around Biden +9) on a UNS.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #20 on: June 16, 2020, 11:23:40 AM »
I thought the undecided breaking Republican thing was a Dixiecrat phenomenon that is less true in more modern Southern states like Georgia at this point.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #21 on: June 16, 2020, 11:47:51 AM »
I could see this happening, actually.  At least it's possible if there is a free and fair election.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #22 on: June 16, 2020, 11:50:49 AM »
The theory that Biden is just running up his margins in heavily blue states really isn't looking so hot right now.

Hope this holds.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #23 on: June 16, 2020, 11:51:04 AM »
I agree with the take that GA is on the road to becoming another VA. The swings in the Atlanta suburban counties are very reminiscent of NOVA 2004-2008.
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Buzz
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« Reply #24 on: June 16, 2020, 11:56:42 AM »
Quote from: soundchaser on June 16, 2020, 11:05:34 AM
Quote from: Buzz on June 16, 2020, 10:52:52 AM
In line with current polling.  Trump will win by 1-2 on Election Day.  Tilt R

A poll that has my opponent up by several points is good, actually.
where the **** did I say it was good?  I said Trump would win it by 1-2 points on 11/3 which is logical.  Ignorance
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