MI-03 (Dem Internal): Biden +5

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1272888027669561349

Amash (R) won MI-03 11% in 2018. Anyone know how much Trump on MI-03 by in 2016?

[Panda Express]

Anyone know how much Trump on MI-03 by in 2016?

Trump won by 10 (52-42) in 2016

[Lief 🗽]

So a 15-point swing, exactly in line with the EPIC poll. Tremendous!

[wbrocks67]

Anyone know how much Trump on MI-03 by in 2016?

Trump won by 10 (52-42) in 2016

Woah. That's massive. Biden +5 here after Trump +10 in 2016 would be huge. Biden winning at all would be huge, let alone +5

[DrScholl]

This is one reason why Trump is in huge trouble in Michigan. Biden is certainly leading in Kent County if he is leading in the district overall by 5% and Kent County has been a Republican base county forever.

[pbrower2a]

Gerald Ford's old district. The Gerald Ford Museum is in plain sight from the northbound lanes of US 131, an Interstate-grade freeway for a long distance in Michigan.

Donald Trump isn't exactly Gerald Ford, a kindly, decent, smart man who respected protocol and precedent... but just didn't know how to run a Presidential campaign in 1976.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Gerald Ford's old district. The Gerald Ford Museum is in plain sight from the northbound lanes of US 131, an Interstate-grade freeway for a long distance in Michigan.

Donald Trump isn't exactly Gerald Ford, a kindly, decent, smart man who respected protocol and precedent... but just didn't know how to run a Presidential campaign in 1976.

Had his fair share of run-ins with ramps and stairs, too. 

[BoJack Horseman]

This district voted for Schuette by less than 1 point FWIW

[The '90s' Last Champion]

I doubt Biden is leading in this seat by 5, but if he is, not only is MI gone for the GOP, but this CD is gone as well.

[wbrocks67]

This district voted for Schuette by less than 1 point FWIW

then Biden +5 here does line-up with Biden +14-16 in Michigan

[Orwell]

Gerald Ford's old district. The Gerald Ford Museum is in plain sight from the northbound lanes of US 131, an Interstate-grade freeway for a long distance in Michigan.

Donald Trump isn't exactly Gerald Ford, a kindly, decent, smart man who respected protocol and precedent... but just didn't know how to run a Presidential campaign in 1976.

Had his fair share of run-ins with ramps and stairs, too. 

Only difference is Ford was an excellent athlete, he was an All-American center, linebacker, and long snapper at the University of Michigan. In 1936 when the team played Georgia Tech, Tech threatened to forfeit if Michigan played an African American player who happened to be Ford's best friend. Michigan relented and Ford threatened to quit the team if his friend was not allowed to play, but after his friend Willis Ward asked him to play Ford relented, but there was still significant outrage among University staff, coaches, students, and alumnists.

[pbrower2a]

Gerald Ford's old district. The Gerald Ford Museum is in plain sight from the northbound lanes of US 131, an Interstate-grade freeway for a long distance in Michigan.

Donald Trump isn't exactly Gerald Ford, a kindly, decent, smart man who respected protocol and precedent... but just didn't know how to run a Presidential campaign in 1976.

Had his fair share of run-ins with ramps and stairs, too. 

...except that those were results of old football injuries.

Ford had a choice of going to the NFL or to law school. He chose law school. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Gerald Ford's old district. The Gerald Ford Museum is in plain sight from the northbound lanes of US 131, an Interstate-grade freeway for a long distance in Michigan.

Donald Trump isn't exactly Gerald Ford, a kindly, decent, smart man who respected protocol and precedent... but just didn't know how to run a Presidential campaign in 1976.

Had his fair share of run-ins with ramps and stairs, too. 

...except that those were results of old football injuries.

Ford had a choice of going to the NFL or to law school. He chose law school. 

I know, I know -- I actually feel badly for President Ford in that him tripping down the stairs has been overblown by history. 

[Podgy the Bear]

Donald Trump isn't exactly Gerald Ford, a kindly, decent, smart man who respected protocol and precedent... but just didn't know how to run a Presidential campaign in 1976.

Agree with you on everything except ? on Ford's 1976 presidential campaign.  It may have been the best losing campaign in electoral history.  He fought off a furious charge from Ronald Reagan for the nomination, cut a 33 point deficit down to 2 in November, and came within 7,000 votes each in Ohio and Hawaii to win the whole thing.  He picked up significant independent support to make it very close, as the Republican Party was literally at a low point in 1976.

[pbrower2a]

Ford had never run a statewide campaign for anything. He may have caught on... but too late.

Most Presidents have either been US Senators or state governors. Big-city mayors do not win nominations even though "Mayor of Los Angeles" or even "Mayor of Indianapolis" has similar responsibilities. (My dream nominee for President would have been George Voinovich, who had been Mayor of Cleveland, Governor of Ohio, and US Senator from Ohio. Tough city and a swing state). 

US Rep is as far as one can go in some states (Jack Kemp), and he would have probably been a good President if given the chance. I don't know if I can blame him for the defeat of Bob Dole in 1996. Geraldine Ferraro (1984) was a substandard choice for a nominee who had no chance. Paul Ryan (2012) ended up defending his House seat in what should have been a close Presidential election.

Dick Cheney is an odd case because he was an at-large Congressman, so he won a statewide election. Of course, Wyoming is not a swing state. Dubya chose him for ideological compatibility and for his administrative skills... like him or not he was a good administrator.         

[OSR stands with Israel]

Donald Trump isn't exactly Gerald Ford, a kindly, decent, smart man who respected protocol and precedent... but just didn't know how to run a Presidential campaign in 1976.

Agree with you on everything except ? on Ford's 1976 presidential campaign.  It may have been the best losing campaign in electoral history.  He fought off a furious charge from Ronald Reagan for the nomination, cut a 33 point deficit down to 2 in November, and came within 7,000 votes each in Ohio and Hawaii to win the whole thing.  He picked up significant independent support to make it very close, as the Republican Party was literally at a low point in 1976.

I would say the all time Republican low point for the GOP was 1932-1938 and second was 1964-1966

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Donald Trump isn't exactly Gerald Ford, a kindly, decent, smart man who respected protocol and precedent... but just didn't know how to run a Presidential campaign in 1976.

Agree with you on everything except ? on Ford's 1976 presidential campaign.  It may have been the best losing campaign in electoral history.  He fought off a furious charge from Ronald Reagan for the nomination, cut a 33 point deficit down to 2 in November, and came within 7,000 votes each in Ohio and Hawaii to win the whole thing.  He picked up significant independent support to make it very close, as the Republican Party was literally at a low point in 1976.

"The State of the Union is not good" remains one of the most memorable and powerful quotes in SOTU history, IMO.  Can't imagine the pressure on Ford to speak in front of an angry and disillusioned nation, still reeling from Vietnam, Watergate, and the oil crisis.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

Donald Trump isn't exactly Gerald Ford, a kindly, decent, smart man who respected protocol and precedent... but just didn't know how to run a Presidential campaign in 1976.

Agree with you on everything except ? on Ford's 1976 presidential campaign.  It may have been the best losing campaign in electoral history.  He fought off a furious charge from Ronald Reagan for the nomination, cut a 33 point deficit down to 2 in November, and came within 7,000 votes each in Ohio and Hawaii to win the whole thing.  He picked up significant independent support to make it very close, as the Republican Party was literally at a low point in 1976.

"The State of the Union is not good" remains one of the most memorable and powerful quotes in SOTU history, IMO.  Can't imagine the pressure on Ford to speak in front of an angry and disillusioned nation, still reeling from Vietnam, Watergate, and the oil crisis.  

Ford was a good man who was unexpectedly elevated to the Presidency during a difficult time, and did his best.  I quite liked him after getting over my initial anger at his pardon of Nixon (as a young Republican at the time, I felt that Nixon had betrayed both the country and the party, although I later came to believe Ford's decision was understandable).  I voted for him in '76 - my first Presidential vote.

[Podgy the Bear]

Donald Trump isn't exactly Gerald Ford, a kindly, decent, smart man who respected protocol and precedent... but just didn't know how to run a Presidential campaign in 1976.

Agree with you on everything except ? on Ford's 1976 presidential campaign.  It may have been the best losing campaign in electoral history.  He fought off a furious charge from Ronald Reagan for the nomination, cut a 33 point deficit down to 2 in November, and came within 7,000 votes each in Ohio and Hawaii to win the whole thing.  He picked up significant independent support to make it very close, as the Republican Party was literally at a low point in 1976.

I would say the all time Republican low point for the GOP was 1932-1938 and second was 1964-1966

Check the article on party ID from 1939-2014:

https://www.people-press.org/interactives/party-id-trend/

Gallup had the Republican Party ID at about 21% (with Democrats at 45%) in 1976.    It's running at about 31/29 D/R with 41% independent today.

Of course, the Republicans were in terrible shape in the mid 1930s and mid 1960s but the presidential campaigns of those years were disasters for the Republican candidates as well.  That's what makes Ford's performance all the more remarkable.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Donald Trump isn't exactly Gerald Ford, a kindly, decent, smart man who respected protocol and precedent... but just didn't know how to run a Presidential campaign in 1976.

Agree with you on everything except ? on Ford's 1976 presidential campaign.  It may have been the best losing campaign in electoral history.  He fought off a furious charge from Ronald Reagan for the nomination, cut a 33 point deficit down to 2 in November, and came within 7,000 votes each in Ohio and Hawaii to win the whole thing.  He picked up significant independent support to make it very close, as the Republican Party was literally at a low point in 1976.

"The State of the Union is not good" remains one of the most memorable and powerful quotes in SOTU history, IMO.  Can't imagine the pressure on Ford to speak in front of an angry and disillusioned nation, still reeling from Vietnam, Watergate, and the oil crisis.  

 I voted for him in '76 - my first Presidential vote.

So you voted for Hayes, then?

Ohhh, you meant 1976!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Donald Trump isn't exactly Gerald Ford, a kindly, decent, smart man who respected protocol and precedent... but just didn't know how to run a Presidential campaign in 1976.

Agree with you on everything except ? on Ford's 1976 presidential campaign.  It may have been the best losing campaign in electoral history.  He fought off a furious charge from Ronald Reagan for the nomination, cut a 33 point deficit down to 2 in November, and came within 7,000 votes each in Ohio and Hawaii to win the whole thing.  He picked up significant independent support to make it very close, as the Republican Party was literally at a low point in 1976.

"The State of the Union is not good" remains one of the most memorable and powerful quotes in SOTU history, IMO.  Can't imagine the pressure on Ford to speak in front of an angry and disillusioned nation, still reeling from Vietnam, Watergate, and the oil crisis.  

 I voted for him in '76 - my first Presidential vote.

So you voted for Hayes, then?

Ohhh, you meant 1976!

Oh, I'm not that old, although I'll admit I'm not too sure about these new automobeel contraptions all you young whippersnappers are going around in!

[BoJack Horseman]

Donald Trump isn't exactly Gerald Ford, a kindly, decent, smart man who respected protocol and precedent... but just didn't know how to run a Presidential campaign in 1976.

Agree with you on everything except ? on Ford's 1976 presidential campaign.  It may have been the best losing campaign in electoral history.  He fought off a furious charge from Ronald Reagan for the nomination, cut a 33 point deficit down to 2 in November, and came within 7,000 votes each in Ohio and Hawaii to win the whole thing.  He picked up significant independent support to make it very close, as the Republican Party was literally at a low point in 1976.

"The State of the Union is not good" remains one of the most memorable and powerful quotes in SOTU history, IMO.  Can't imagine the pressure on Ford to speak in front of an angry and disillusioned nation, still reeling from Vietnam, Watergate, and the oil crisis.  

Ford was a good man who was unexpectedly elevated to the Presidency during a difficult time, and did his best.  I quite liked him after getting over my initial anger at his pardon of Nixon (as a young Republican at the time, I felt that Nixon had betrayed both the country and the party, although I later came to believe Ford's decision was understandable).  I voted for him in '76 - my first Presidential vote.

My dad turned 18 in 1976 and he voted for Ford. Ford is the last Republican President I would have considered voting for. He then voted for Reagan in 1980 because of the economy and then flipped to Mondale in 1984 also because of the economy. He got out of the Air Force in 1982 and the economy was terrible here in the Midwest in the mid-80s.

[Orwell]

Donald Trump isn't exactly Gerald Ford, a kindly, decent, smart man who respected protocol and precedent... but just didn't know how to run a Presidential campaign in 1976.

Agree with you on everything except ? on Ford's 1976 presidential campaign.  It may have been the best losing campaign in electoral history.  He fought off a furious charge from Ronald Reagan for the nomination, cut a 33 point deficit down to 2 in November, and came within 7,000 votes each in Ohio and Hawaii to win the whole thing.  He picked up significant independent support to make it very close, as the Republican Party was literally at a low point in 1976.

"The State of the Union is not good" remains one of the most memorable and powerful quotes in SOTU history, IMO.  Can't imagine the pressure on Ford to speak in front of an angry and disillusioned nation, still reeling from Vietnam, Watergate, and the oil crisis.  

Ford was a good man who was unexpectedly elevated to the Presidency during a difficult time, and did his best.  I quite liked him after getting over my initial anger at his pardon of Nixon (as a young Republican at the time, I felt that Nixon had betrayed both the country and the party, although I later came to believe Ford's decision was understandable).  I voted for him in '76 - my first Presidential vote.

My dad turned 18 in 1976 and he voted for Ford. Ford is the last Republican President I would have considered voting for. He then voted for Reagan in 1980 because of the economy and then flipped to Mondale in 1984 also because of the economy. He got out of the Air Force in 1982 and the economy was terrible here in the Midwest in the mid-80s.

Y'all old as hell by dad was 6 years old in 1976 and my mom was 2 years old.

[Ferguson97]

Donald Trump isn't exactly Gerald Ford, a kindly, decent, smart man who respected protocol and precedent... but just didn't know how to run a Presidential campaign in 1976.

Agree with you on everything except ? on Ford's 1976 presidential campaign.  It may have been the best losing campaign in electoral history.  He fought off a furious charge from Ronald Reagan for the nomination, cut a 33 point deficit down to 2 in November, and came within 7,000 votes each in Ohio and Hawaii to win the whole thing.  He picked up significant independent support to make it very close, as the Republican Party was literally at a low point in 1976.

"The State of the Union is not good" remains one of the most memorable and powerful quotes in SOTU history, IMO.  Can't imagine the pressure on Ford to speak in front of an angry and disillusioned nation, still reeling from Vietnam, Watergate, and the oil crisis.  

Ford was a good man who was unexpectedly elevated to the Presidency during a difficult time, and did his best.  I quite liked him after getting over my initial anger at his pardon of Nixon (as a young Republican at the time, I felt that Nixon had betrayed both the country and the party, although I later came to believe Ford's decision was understandable).  I voted for him in '76 - my first Presidential vote.

My dad turned 18 in 1976 and he voted for Ford. Ford is the last Republican President I would have considered voting for. He then voted for Reagan in 1980 because of the economy and then flipped to Mondale in 1984 also because of the economy. He got out of the Air Force in 1982 and the economy was terrible here in the Midwest in the mid-80s.

Y'all old as hell by dad was 6 years old in 1976 and my mom was 2 years old.

How young are you? I'm only 22 and my parents were 10 in '76.

[Orwell]

Donald Trump isn't exactly Gerald Ford, a kindly, decent, smart man who respected protocol and precedent... but just didn't know how to run a Presidential campaign in 1976.

Agree with you on everything except ? on Ford's 1976 presidential campaign.  It may have been the best losing campaign in electoral history.  He fought off a furious charge from Ronald Reagan for the nomination, cut a 33 point deficit down to 2 in November, and came within 7,000 votes each in Ohio and Hawaii to win the whole thing.  He picked up significant independent support to make it very close, as the Republican Party was literally at a low point in 1976.

"The State of the Union is not good" remains one of the most memorable and powerful quotes in SOTU history, IMO.  Can't imagine the pressure on Ford to speak in front of an angry and disillusioned nation, still reeling from Vietnam, Watergate, and the oil crisis.  

Ford was a good man who was unexpectedly elevated to the Presidency during a difficult time, and did his best.  I quite liked him after getting over my initial anger at his pardon of Nixon (as a young Republican at the time, I felt that Nixon had betrayed both the country and the party, although I later came to believe Ford's decision was understandable).  I voted for him in '76 - my first Presidential vote.

My dad turned 18 in 1976 and he voted for Ford. Ford is the last Republican President I would have considered voting for. He then voted for Reagan in 1980 because of the economy and then flipped to Mondale in 1984 also because of the economy. He got out of the Air Force in 1982 and the economy was terrible here in the Midwest in the mid-80s.

Y'all old as hell by dad was 6 years old in 1976 and my mom was 2 years old.

How young are you? I'm only 22 and my parents were 10 in '76.

I'm 17.