KY-D Primary - YouGov Blue/MVMT/Booker for Kentucky: McGrath + 9%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://bookerforkentucky.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Booker-Internal-2020-06-13.pdf

A Charles Booker internal of 314 registered voters from June 8 - 10 with an MoE of 7%. Including leaners and those who've already voted and rounding to the nearest integer % value, the results we get are:

McGrath 50%
Booker 41%
Broihier 6%
Other 1%
Undecided 3%

[Ferguson97]

MOE 7% and n=314?

Completely garbage poll.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The pollster's previous internals for Booker, not counting leaners:

McGrath 65%-Booker 7% (January)
McGrath 62%-Booker 11% (April)
McGrath 62%-Booker 13% (May)
McGrath 49%-Booker 39% (this one, June)

[Alben Barkley]

Booker has gotten a lot of buzz and several big endorsements lately, including from Matt Jones and Kentucky’s two biggest papers (Herald-Leader and Courier-Journal). But McGrath still has the money and establishment support behind her. Plus I don’t see many of the rural areas of the state going for Booker — he might win Jefferson and Fayette counties, but probably not much else. That said, wouldn’t be the most shocking upset in the world if he pulled it out.

It would mean that even our already extremely faint chances of beating McConnell would evaporate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I disagree, McConnell beat ALG by 20 pts in a midterm and  beat Lunsford by 6 in a Prez election,  since this is a landslide by Biden, Booker will win. This is a Prez race not a midterm, that's why McConnell and Graham and Ernst and Daines are stuck at 45

We need Harrison and Booker in the Senate

[Alben Barkley]

I disagree, McConnell beat ALG by 20 pts in a midterm and  beat Lunsford by 6 in a Prez election,  since this is a landslide by Biden, Booker will win. This is a Prez race not a midterm, that's why McConnell and Graham and Ernst and Daines are stuck at 45

We need Harrison and Booker in the Senate

K.

I’m just telling you as someone who lives here that there is literally no chance of this state electing a black progressive left Democrat who among other things supports the Green New Deal. He is simply DOA in this state.

McConnell beat ALG by 15, not 20, in a horrendous midterm year for Democrats (2014). He beat Lunsford even in a presidential year that was pretty much a landslide for Obama (2008), and Biden is unlikely to win that much bigger nationally. And even if he does, Kentucky has just moved farther right since then so it won’t help much. Lunsford’s performance would still probably be pretty much the ceiling for even McGrath. If by some miracle she squeaks out a win, it would be because of McConnell’s personal unpopularity combined with an extremely favorable national climate for Democrats that sees a collapse in Trump support even in states like Kentucky. But even that I don’t think would be enough to save Booker.

Our best chance was in fact neither, it was Rocky Adkins, but sadly he didn’t run.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If this primary is even close, it will suggest the dixiecrats are finally changing their registrations.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I disagree, McConnell beat ALG by 20 pts in a midterm and  beat Lunsford by 6 in a Prez election,  since this is a landslide by Biden, Booker will win. This is a Prez race not a midterm, that's why McConnell and Graham and Ernst and Daines are stuck at 45

We need Harrison and Booker in the Senate

K.

I’m just telling you as someone who lives here that there is literally no chance of this state electing a black progressive left Democrat who among other things supports the Green New Deal. He is simply DOA in this state.

McConnell beat ALG by 15, not 20, in a horrendous midterm year for Democrats (2014). He beat Lunsford even in a presidential year that was pretty much a landslide for Obama (2008), and Biden is unlikely to win that much bigger nationally. And even if he does, Kentucky has just moved farther right since then so it won’t help much. Lunsford’s performance would still probably be pretty much the ceiling for even McGrath. If by some miracle she squeaks out a win, it would be because of McConnell’s personal unpopularity combined with an extremely favorable national climate for Democrats that sees a collapse in Trump support even in states like Kentucky. But even that I don’t think would be enough to save Booker.

Our best chance was in fact neither, it was Rocky Adkins, but sadly he didn’t run.

All I know is that McConnell is stuck at 45 percent in every poll. We will see after primary. I am supporting Espy top for Senate and Jones, whom are underdogs as well.

Trump is not a Politician,  he is a businessman and lucked out being Prez due to Gary Johnson take 3% in WI, MI, PA. The wave will be 2008 again

[Canis]

I disagree, McConnell beat ALG by 20 pts in a midterm and  beat Lunsford by 6 in a Prez election,  since this is a landslide by Biden, Booker will win. This is a Prez race not a midterm, that's why McConnell and Graham and Ernst and Daines are stuck at 45

We need Harrison and Booker in the Senate

K.

I’m just telling you as someone who lives here that there is literally no chance of this state electing a black progressive left Democrat who among other things supports the Green New Deal. He is simply DOA in this state.

McConnell beat ALG by 15, not 20, in a horrendous midterm year for Democrats (2014). He beat Lunsford even in a presidential year that was pretty much a landslide for Obama (2008), and Biden is unlikely to win that much bigger nationally. And even if he does, Kentucky has just moved farther right since then so it won’t help much. Lunsford’s performance would still probably be pretty much the ceiling for even McGrath. If by some miracle she squeaks out a win, it would be because of McConnell’s personal unpopularity combined with an extremely favorable national climate for Democrats that sees a collapse in Trump support even in states like Kentucky. But even that I don’t think would be enough to save Booker.

Our best chance was in fact neither, it was Rocky Adkins, but sadly he didn’t run.

Any reason as to why Adkins didn't run? It really seems like he should have