AZ-Civiqs: Kelly with an astronomical 9 point lead
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  AZ-Civiqs: Kelly with an astronomical 9 point lead
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Author Topic: AZ-Civiqs: Kelly with an astronomical 9 point lead  (Read 2010 times)
Panda Express
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« on: June 16, 2020, 07:40:32 AM »
« edited: June 16, 2020, 07:50:00 AM by Panda Express »

Kelly: 51%
McSally: 42%

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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1 on: June 16, 2020, 07:46:28 AM »

McSally is -20 in favorability. I don't even know how it's possible to be that bad. Can anyone clue me in why she's so unpopular even compared to Trump?
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #2 on: June 16, 2020, 07:49:25 AM »

McSally is -20 in favorability. I don't even know how it's possible to be that bad. Can anyone clue me in why she's so unpopular even compared to Trump?

Her losing an election yet being gifted a Senate seat anyway can't help. 
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: June 16, 2020, 08:34:21 AM »

McSally is -20 in favorability. I don't even know how it's possible to be that bad. Can anyone clue me in why she's so unpopular even compared to Trump?

She went full Trump in a state that doesn't seem to want full Trump. But it also seems that even some people who like Trump are not a fan of hers, either.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #4 on: June 16, 2020, 08:34:47 AM »

Someone else 4%
Undecided 3%

Sampling period: June 13-15, 2020
1368 registered voters
MoE: 2.9%
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #5 on: June 16, 2020, 08:36:34 AM »

McSally is -20 in favorability. I don't even know how it's possible to be that bad. Can anyone clue me in why she's so unpopular even compared to Trump?

She went full Trump in a state that doesn't seem to want full Trump. But it also seems that even some people who like Trump are not a fan of hers, either.
She had to go full Trump if she wanted to be nominated. The problem is that to be nominated and be able to win a spot in the GE, you have to take steps that will undermine any GE campaign.
It really is a catch-22.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #6 on: June 16, 2020, 09:07:55 AM »

Martha "I'm not talking to you liberal hack" McSally will definitely do worse than Trump. JHK forecast gives Kelly the same chance of winning than Hickenlooper. That tells you everything.
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #7 on: June 16, 2020, 09:21:44 AM »

McSally is -20 in favorability. I don't even know how it's possible to be that bad. Can anyone clue me in why she's so unpopular even compared to Trump?

Her losing an election yet being gifted a Senate seat anyway can't help. 
doug cant wait to 2024 he wants the seat now why he didnt apoint any of the gop row office holder
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #8 on: June 16, 2020, 10:59:15 AM »

Gov. Ducey’s favorability rating is -17.

Good news for Kelly’s 2022 prospects.
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #9 on: June 16, 2020, 11:07:49 AM »

Martha McSally is starting to remind me of Martha Coakley in terms of candidate skills.  But Martha C. wasn't gifted a seat after losing the first time!
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AZDem
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« Reply #10 on: June 16, 2020, 11:07:57 AM »

McSally is -20 in favorability. I don't even know how it's possible to be that bad. Can anyone clue me in why she's so unpopular even compared to Trump?

Her losing an election yet being gifted a Senate seat anyway can't help.  
doug cant wait to 2024 he wants the seat now why he didnt apoint any of the gop row office holder

Well little Dougie Douchey may have shot himself in the foot if he thinks he has a shot at 2022 (or 2024). He's terribly unpopular here right now. Our Covid hospitalizations are increasing, some restaurants are shutting down again due to infected employees and customers, and he is not listening to the experts to increase hospital capacity (last I heard the state was at 93% ICU occupancy).

Let's not forget that he has consistently polled near the bottom when looking at the national governors approvals of handling the virus. Unless things change drastically between now and 2022 (which is unlikely to happen), AZ governor is the highest office he's going to achieve.

He also promised teachers a 20% pay increase to get reelected in 2018 but if he is unable to follow through on that now give the economic situation, he's really toast

Maybe Cold Stone will be hiring after his term is up.

There aren't a whole lot of viable Republicans in the state right now. All the heavy hitters: Joe Arpaio and "Chemtrail" Kelly are unelectable statewide. The only viable candidate would be Mark Brnovich, the attorney general.

The state is just trending in the wrong direction now. There's a possibility one or both of the state house and senate could flip in November.
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Astatine
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« Reply #11 on: June 16, 2020, 11:13:47 AM »

Martha McSally is starting to remind me of Martha Coakley in terms of candidate skills.  But Martha C. wasn't gifted a seat after losing the first time!
At least Martha Coakley could win statewide races.
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S019
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« Reply #12 on: June 16, 2020, 11:14:22 AM »

Likely D, moving close to Safe, at this point, the NRSC would be wise to triage McSally (and Gardner).
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President Johnson
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« Reply #13 on: June 16, 2020, 01:19:13 PM »

I get that appointing a previously rejected senate candidate isn't necessarily a wise idea, but that McSally is doing this worse is atrocious. Likely Democratic for now.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #14 on: June 16, 2020, 01:22:58 PM »

I get that appointing a previously rejected senate candidate isn't necessarily a wise idea, but that McSally is doing this worse is atrocious. Likely Democratic for now.
I think it was a wise move but mainly due to how the AZ GOP bench is quite terrible. And those who are best on that bench would find it hard to win a primary.
While the "appointed a loser" thing would hurt for sure, ideological extremism from a Kelly Ward type would without a doubt be worse from an electoral perspective.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #15 on: June 16, 2020, 01:25:09 PM »

I get that appointing a previously rejected senate candidate isn't necessarily a wise idea, but that McSally is doing this worse is atrocious. Likely Democratic for now.
I think it was a wise move but mainly due to how the AZ GOP bench is quite terrible. And those who are best on that bench would find it hard to win a primary.
While the "appointed a loser" thing would hurt for sure, ideological extremism from a Kelly Ward type would without a doubt be worse from an electoral perspective.

Obviously Ducey appointed someone who thought would lose to set the stage for his own 2022 run. I think he should have appointed Cindy McCain.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #16 on: June 16, 2020, 01:27:52 PM »

I get that appointing a previously rejected senate candidate isn't necessarily a wise idea, but that McSally is doing this worse is atrocious. Likely Democratic for now.
I think it was a wise move but mainly due to how the AZ GOP bench is quite terrible. And those who are best on that bench would find it hard to win a primary.
While the "appointed a loser" thing would hurt for sure, ideological extremism from a Kelly Ward type would without a doubt be worse from an electoral perspective.

Obviously Ducey appointed someone who thought would lose to set the stage for his own 2022 run. I think he should have appointed Cindy McCain.
Oh, I don't disagree too much, just stressing that McSally is in fact the best potential pick from an electoral perspective.
Which is...quite sad for the AZ GOP. Too bad nutcases are so powerful in their primaries.
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #17 on: June 16, 2020, 01:32:38 PM »

I get that appointing a previously rejected senate candidate isn't necessarily a wise idea, but that McSally is doing this worse is atrocious. Likely Democratic for now.
I think it was a wise move but mainly due to how the AZ GOP bench is quite terrible. And those who are best on that bench would find it hard to win a primary.
While the "appointed a loser" thing would hurt for sure, ideological extremism from a Kelly Ward type would without a doubt be worse from an electoral perspective.

Obviously Ducey appointed someone who thought would lose to set the stage for his own 2022 run. I think he should have appointed Cindy McCain.
Oh, I don't disagree too much, just stressing that McSally is in fact the best potential pick from an electoral perspective.
Which is...quite sad for the AZ GOP. Too bad nutcases are so powerful in their primaries.

He should have dug up JD Hayworth 😂
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #18 on: June 16, 2020, 01:52:19 PM »

I get that appointing a previously rejected senate candidate isn't necessarily a wise idea, but that McSally is doing this worse is atrocious. Likely Democratic for now.
I think it was a wise move but mainly due to how the AZ GOP bench is quite terrible. And those who are best on that bench would find it hard to win a primary.
While the "appointed a loser" thing would hurt for sure, ideological extremism from a Kelly Ward type would without a doubt be worse from an electoral perspective.

Obviously Ducey appointed someone who thought would lose to set the stage for his own 2022 run. I think he should have appointed Cindy McCain.
Oh, I don't disagree too much, just stressing that McSally is in fact the best potential pick from an electoral perspective.
Which is...quite sad for the AZ GOP. Too bad nutcases are so powerful in their primaries.

He should have dug up JD Hayworth 😂
Lol. JD Hayworth. And I thought Jon Kyl was ancient!
Hayworth is so last-century that he was there when the Sea Peoples attacked Egypt.
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xavier110
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« Reply #19 on: June 16, 2020, 01:56:05 PM »

If Sinema could win in 2018, I see no way McSally pulls this off, even if Trump has a resurgence. Two years is a lifetime as the demographic trends work in the Dems' favor, and you factor in increased turnout with it being a presidential election. She may close the gap slightly but she's not winning.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #20 on: June 16, 2020, 01:59:32 PM »

I get that appointing a previously rejected senate candidate isn't necessarily a wise idea, but that McSally is doing this worse is atrocious. Likely Democratic for now.
I think it was a wise move but mainly due to how the AZ GOP bench is quite terrible. And those who are best on that bench would find it hard to win a primary.
While the "appointed a loser" thing would hurt for sure, ideological extremism from a Kelly Ward type would without a doubt be worse from an electoral perspective.

Obviously Ducey appointed someone who thought would lose to set the stage for his own 2022 run. I think he should have appointed Cindy McCain.

Cindy McCain probably would not have run in the 2020 special election, and if she had, would probably be polling much better than McSally is now. Many of those who are supporting Kelly, after all, are moderate suburbanites who were McCain supporters for decades prior to Trump.
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Webnicz
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« Reply #21 on: June 16, 2020, 02:10:08 PM »
« Edited: June 16, 2020, 02:14:35 PM by Webnicz »

McSally is -20 in favorability. I don't even know how it's possible to be that bad. Can anyone clue me in why she's so unpopular even compared to Trump?

She went full Trump in a state that doesn't seem to want full Trump. But it also seems that even some people who like Trump are not a fan of hers, either.
She had to go full Trump if she wanted to be nominated. The problem is that to be nominated and be able to win a spot in the GE, you have to take steps that will undermine any GE campaign.
It really is a catch-22.

This basically. What the republican base in AZ wants is so far off from when the general population wants. It’s been like this for more than a decade now and it’s starting to catch up with the GOP, along with their pretty awful bench especially compared to the Dems in AZ which is one of the best benches in the country  is only expediting the trend in AZ

Also keep in mind Sinema was largely considered a weaker candidate in 2018, yet she still won against mcsally, given that she’s up against the best candidate who’s been sitting on the dem bench for years, it’s rather hard to se her pulling it off. Plus she just kinda comes off as phony.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #22 on: June 16, 2020, 06:17:02 PM »

Kelly's polling here continues to be out of this world!
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We Live in Black and White
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« Reply #23 on: June 16, 2020, 09:20:35 PM »

Is this over? I think this may be over.
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #24 on: June 17, 2020, 03:56:39 AM »

New Poll: Arizona Senator (Special) by Civiqs on 2020-06-15

Summary: D: 51%, R: 42%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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