AZ-Civiqs: Biden 49, Trump 45

[ON Progressive]

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_AZ_banner_book_2020_06_gh368w.pdf

[BlueGrassKentuckian]

Donald is more favorable than Biden in Arizona, tells me everything. I think its going to end up +0-2 in either direction come November.

[tagimaucia]

Donald is more favorable than Biden in Arizona, tells me everything. I think its going to end up +0-2 in either direction come November.

Civiqs is weird with favorability though. They show Trump ahead of Biden in favorability in.. most states, and nationwide, which doesn't really lineup with any other pollsters at all.

[ProudModerate2]

1368 registered voters in Arizona
from June 13-15
margin of error of ±2.9%


Joe Biden, Democrat 49%
Donald Trump, Republican 45%
Someone else 5%
Unsure 1%

---------------------------------

Mark Kelly, Democrat 51%
Martha McSally, Republican 42%

[Buzz]

Tilt D.  Will probably be the closest state and might decide the election

[wbrocks67]

Biden +4 sounds about right.

Those 18-29 #s for Republicans. Oof.

[BlueSwan]

Biden +4 sounds about right.

Those 18-29 #s for Republicans. Oof.

I don't know. Given a bunch of the most recent polls it almost sounds a bit weak for Biden.

[wbrocks67]

Biden +4 sounds about right.

Those 18-29 #s for Republicans. Oof.

I don't know. Given a bunch of the most recent polls it almost sounds a bit weak for Biden.

I mean, despite it's pretty fast lurch leftward, Arizona still wouldn't be a blowout. If Biden is up about 8% from HRC's margin nationwide (+2 to +10), then Arizona would be at about +4-5% for Biden (versus +3.5% for Trump in 16), so it makes sense.

Biden would seemingly have room to grow too, since people who see both unfavorably like Biden better, and Kelly may even have some coattails

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Biden +4 sounds about right.

Those 18-29 #s for Republicans. Oof.

AZ is a state with a disproportionately old Republican vote. Fundamentally the state is polarized between old MWers on one end and young liberals of various backgrounds, esp. Latino, on the other, with a large, large moderate yet partisan middle.

[wbrocks67]

Donald is more favorable than Biden in Arizona, tells me everything. I think its going to end up +0-2 in either direction come November.

Civiqs is weird with favorability though. They show Trump ahead of Biden in favorability in.. most states, and nationwide, which doesn't really lineup with any other pollsters at all.

And I'd bet that McSally isn't near -20 (though she is very unliked), and that Sinema is higher than +10. Even Ducey's #s, despite his horrible handling of the virus, seem too bad to be true. Same with Biden's, though.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Someone else 5%
Undecided 1%

Sampling period: June 13-15, 2020
1368 registered voters
MoE: 2.9%

[Bidenworth2020]

Donald is more favorable than Biden in Arizona, tells me everything. I think its going to end up +0-2 in either direction come November.

The Fox Poll taken here a week ago had Biden at +2 favorability, while Trump was at -10 favorability.

[Alben Barkley]

Donald is more favorable than Biden in Arizona, tells me everything. I think its going to end up +0-2 in either direction come November.

The Fox Poll taken here a week ago had Biden at +2 favorability, while Trump was at -10 favorability.

Though, interestingly, came up with the same Biden +4 result.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Civiqs and Change are the only pollsters that find Biden with favorables as bad or worse than Trump. God knows why.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Biden +4 sounds about right.

Those 18-29 #s for Republicans. Oof.

It ain't just Republican retirees who are moving out of California

[pppolitics]

weighing polls by party identification is a bad idea

online polls are also usually less accurate

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-to-read-2020-polls-like-a-pro/

[Progressive Pessimist]

Well, considering the glass-half-empty numbers that Biden gets out of this pollster for him to be leading buy this much in Arizona in spite of that is pretty exemplary.

[SnowLabrador]

Meanwhile Kelly is leading by 9 points in the Senate race. I'm glad we have such a strong candidate for the Senate race; might help compensate for Biden's relative weakness with Latino voters.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Arizona President by Civiqs on 2020-06-15

Summary: D: 49%, R: 45%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details