Mayor Bloomberg.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

November 4th, 2020.


"It's now 1:15 AM. Multiple states are too close to call, in an election that's shaping up to be even closer than 2016 was, and neither candidate has crossed the 270 threshold.  The closest state is New Hampshire where Mike Bloomberg is up 296 votes with 99% of precincts reporting, and has consistently been up between 400 and 1000 votes.  Regardless of who wins the election, half of the country is going to focus intense scrutiny on third party voters, as some states approach, and even easily exceed 10 percent of votes going to a third party candidate.  What are your thoughts, Frank?
-Wolf Blitzer, CNN.

It is really something, Wolf.  The battleground map is like nothing we've seen in decades with several states being decided by under 2.5%, as well as the largest it's been in a long time, as a large proportion of voters on both sides are unsatisfied with their partie's nominee.  Although it's still anyone's game, I think I'd rather be David Plouffe than Brad Parscale right now.  It's also plainly obvious that Nate Silver was correct in labeling Utah as a "toss up" state in early September despite the ridicule he received for it, with other firms like Sabato following suit within weeks.
-Frank Luntz, GOP pollster.







I intend to do this TL from January-November, with every update covering 4-8 weeks and updating within every few days-1 week.  That is if my ADHD/aspergers lets me.  Above is just a tease and every true update will be 10X as big.


Might even get the first part out today.

[Illini Moderate]

November 4th, 2020.


"It's now 1:15 AM. Multiple states are too close to call, in an election that's shaping up to be even closer than 2016 was, and neither candidate has crossed the 270 threshold.  The closest state is New Hampshire where Mike Bloomberg is up 296 votes with 99% of precincts reporting, and has consistently been up between 400 and 1000 votes.  Regardless of who wins the election, half of the country is going to focus intense scrutiny on third party voters, as some states approach, and even easily exceed 10 percent of votes going to a third party candidate.  What are your thoughts, Frank?
-Wolf Blitzer, CNN.

It is really something, Wolf.  The battleground map is like nothing we've seen in decades with several states being decided by under 2.5%, as well as the largest it's been in a long time, as a large proportion of voters on both sides are unsatisfied with their partie's nominee.  Although it's still anyone's game, I think I'd rather be David Plouffe than Brad Parscale right now.  It's also plainly obvious that Nate Silver was correct in labeling Utah as a "toss up" state in early September despite the ridicule he received for it, with other firms like Sabato following suit within weeks.
-Frank Luntz, GOP pollster.







I intend to do this TL from January-November, with every update covering 4-8 weeks and updating within every few days-1 week.  That is if my ADHD/aspergers lets me.  Above is just a tease and every true update will be 10X as big.


Might even get the first part out today.

interesting so far

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

November 4th, 2020.


"It's now 1:15 AM. Multiple states are too close to call, in an election that's shaping up to be even closer than 2016 was, and neither candidate has crossed the 270 threshold.  The closest state is New Hampshire where Mike Bloomberg is up 296 votes with 99% of precincts reporting, and has consistently been up between 400 and 1000 votes.  Regardless of who wins the election, half of the country is going to focus intense scrutiny on third party voters, as some states approach, and even easily exceed 10 percent of votes going to a third party candidate.  What are your thoughts, Frank?
-Wolf Blitzer, CNN.

It is really something, Wolf.  The battleground map is like nothing we've seen in decades with several states being decided by under 2.5%, as well as the largest it's been in a long time, as a large proportion of voters on both sides are unsatisfied with their partie's nominee.  Although it's still anyone's game, I think I'd rather be David Plouffe than Brad Parscale right now.  It's also plainly obvious that Nate Silver was correct in labeling Utah as a "toss up" state in early September despite the ridicule he received for it, with other firms like Sabato following suit within weeks.
-Frank Luntz, GOP pollster.







I intend to do this TL from January-November, with every update covering 4-8 weeks and updating within every few days-1 week.  That is if my ADHD/aspergers lets me.  Above is just a tease and every true update will be 10X as big.


Might even get the first part out today.

interesting so far

[Nightcore Nationalist]

"What you heard was pure speculative rumors. We're in it to win it."
Kamala Harris, on rumors that she was planning on suspending her campaign. December 4th 2019

"South Carolina extended it's filing deadline by one week.  Mike Bloomberg is expected to compete there, to the ire of Biden, Harris and Steyer supporters"
Chris Cuomo, CNN. December 5th, 2019

"Mike Bloomberg to spend 75 million in South Carolina alone, ignoring the first 3 early states"
Fox News, December 17th.

"CNN to lower donor threshold so that Bloomberg can attend the debate scheduled for the 14th"
Maggie Haberman, NYT. January 9th, 2020

"This is a brazen attempt to change the rules at the last minute to the benefit of a single candidate.  A candidate that just so happens to own a media empire and a net worth of 50 billion dollars."
Senator Bernie Sanders. January 10th, 2020

"This party has to stand up to oppose a man who makes sexist comments in the workplace, implemented policies that harms people of color disproportionately, and is a symbol of billionaire greed and inequality.  And I'm talking about Mike Bloomberg, not Donald Trump."
Senator Elizabeth Warren. Nevada debate, January 14th 2020.

"If the Democratic party nominates somebody who doesn't recognize or understand the problems that caused Donald Trump to be elected in the first place, then the country will suffer through another version of Trump, except more intelligent and articulate, four or eight years from now. The country cannot afford for us to make that mistake"
Andrew Yang, Nevada debate.

"Listen here, I've been loyal to the Democratic party my entire career, since 1972. I've been loyal to Barack Obama's administration for 8 years *applause*.  This party should not nominate someone who can't decide which party to join.
Joe Biden, Nevada Debate.

"It would be a major, just a.. colossal mistake to throw out the principles of capitalism that created the greatest economy in the history of the world.  There are inequalities that need to be looked at, but when you tear the market down, you get people starving.  You get Venezuela."
Mike Bloomberg, Nevada Debate.

"With all due respect Senator Harris, my law enforcement policies have saved thousands of lives over the course of my three terms as mayor.  Mostly black and Hispanic lives, does their safety not matter?  I'm proud of what I've accomplished as mayor and I stand by my record"
Mike Bloomberg, Nevada Debate.

"Bloomberg's relatively strong debate performance has him on the rise, cracking 10% in most polls.  His support seems to be at the expense of Mayor Buttigieg (who's now competing for 4th place with the other mayor), Senators Harris and Klobuchar, and Tom Steyer.  Perhaps a bit from Biden, but his numbers have barely budged.
Nate Cohn, NYT Upshot. January 21st, 2020.

"Rumors are spreading that Steyer and Harris are planning on dropping out. National averages: Biden: 26.8%. Sanders: 19.4% Warren:14.3%  Bloomberg:10.9% Buttigieg:6.7% Klobuchar:5.3% Yang:3.6% Harris:3.2%  Everyone else: under 3%."
Nate Silver, 538.com. January 24th, 2020.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Iowa polling averages on January 29th 2020:
Bernie Sanders: 27.1%
Pete Buttigieg:23.9%
Amy Klobuchar:19.6%
Elizabeth Warren: 16.7%
Joseph Biden:14.8%
Kamala Harris:5.9%
Andrew Yang:5.2%
Everyone else:under 5%
RealClearPolitics.

"Report: Iowa Caucus shadow app crashes and shows irregularities.  Both Sander's and Buttigieg's supporters cry foul as Bernie leads by under 2%. "
The Guardian, February 3rd 2020.

"Senator Bernie Sanders declared winner in Iowa Caucus with a virtual tie in SDEs, and leading Pete Buttigieg 25.8 to 24.9% in the popular vote."
CNN.com February 4th 2020

"73% of registered voters in our poll approved of President Trump's state of the union address, including 49% of registered Democrats."
Nate Cohn February 5th 2020

"Pete Buttigieg takes a surprise victory over Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire by under half a point.  Andrew Yang received a surprisingly strong 8 percent of the vote, undermining Sanders"
John King, CNN. February 11th.

"Citing low support, Tom Steyer drops out before Nevada Caucus, he endorses Senator Sanders."

"Tremors inside the Democratic establishment as Senator Bernie Sanders wins the Nevada Caucus in a landslide with 53% of the vote""His attack on the Obama-Biden immigration policy proved to be effective as he outperformed polls"
Politico, February 22nd.

"Bernie's people have blasted me for being a partisan.  I may be a partisan, but at least I'm not a f***ing communist!"
James Carville, speaking with Chris Matthews, February 23rd.

"At South Carolina debate, Bloomberg criticizes Biden for apologizing for his previous positions, cites his record of reducing crime and claims Warren's and Sander's economic proposals threaten America's geopolitical strength"
Fox news, February 25th.

"Many Biden supporters are blaming the Harris campaign for lowering his support in South Carolina".  "Bloomberg's spending to top 85M in SC alone with Steyer out of the race"
Matt Drudge, February 27th


South Carolina results:
Mike Bloomberg: 32.8%
Joe Biden:26.1%
Bernie Sanders:17.5%
Kamala Harris:8.9%
Elizabeth Warren:6.7%
Pete Buttigieg:4.9%
Everyone else: under 4%
538.com



National polling averages:
Bernie Sanders:22.1%
Mike Bloomberg:20.8%
Joe Biden:18.3%
Elizabeth Warren:12.6%
Pete Buttigieg:6.4%
Amy Klobuchar:5.0%
Kamala Harris:4.3%
Everyone else: under 4%
@NateSilver538


"Kamala Harris suspends her campaign citing low funding and no path to victory, will not endorse a candidate yet." "Stacy Abrams calls the Harris campaign a victim of a primary schedule that diminishes urban and diverse constituencies".
Vox.com, March 1st.




Next update-more winnowing, super Tuesday and primary maps!