IA-Selzer: Trump +1

[lfromnj]

If Biden wins three congressional districts then he probably will win the state.

Not when the state was Trump +9 and 3 of the districts are Trump + 4 lol. Hubbel literally managed to win all 3 districts yet still lose.

[DrScholl]

If Biden wins three congressional districts then he probably will win the state.

Not when the state was Trump +9 and 3 of the districts are Trump + 4 lol. Hubbel literally managed to win all 3 districts yet still lose.

Lol read the damn poll before you try to chastise anyone. The poll has Biden leading from 5% to 14% in three districts with Trump up big in IA-4 and Trump is only up by 1% overall. All Biden has to do is slightly perform better in one district and he wins the state.

It is not 2016 anymore, so what happened then is irrelevant now.

[redjohn]

A very good sign for Biden, Trump+1 is consistent with a national lead of ~7 points for Biden.

[roxas11]

wow I never thought I would ever see IA be this close in an election year ever again

This is giving me flashback of the Obama years
I remember when Obama ended his 2012 campaign in IA

He gave an emotional speech about it being the last campaign for him and he thanked IA for putting him on the path to the presidency. he would later go on to once again win the state 24 hours after he gave that speech.

but in later years IA had starting becoming a red state and I though after 2016 the state was forever gone for the Dems. I don't know if Biden can win it but just seeing it this close is enough to give me some hope that he at least can give trump a run for his money in the state

[Alben Barkley]

If Biden were looking for a place to spend money, I don't think Iowa would be a terrible option.

The only reason to spend money here is to keep the margin close to help Greenfield, Axne, Hart and Finkenauer. Iowa’s 6 electoral votes pale in comparison to Texas and Georgia

It’s also a relatively cheap state to advertise in though, compared to say Texas. And right now IA and TX seem to be polling about the same, plus the senate race here does seem to be more competitive.

[NOVA Green]

wow I never thought I would ever see IA be this close in an election year ever again

This is giving me flashback of the Obama years
I remember when Obama ended his 2012 campaign in IA

He gave an emotional speech about it being the last campaign for him and he thanked IA for putting him on the path to the presidency. he would later go on to once again win the state 24 hours after he gave that speech.

but in later years IA had starting becoming a red state and I though after 2016 the state was forever gone for the Dems. I don't know if Biden can win it but just seeing it this close is enough to give me some hope that he at least can give trump a run for his money in the state

Iowa is a complex State....

Recall the surprise watching the election returns as a Teenager watching the '88 Numbers and seeing Dukackis win it covinvingly, although being defeated by a huge % nationwide...

Tons of Obama>Trump voters floating around in IA, vast majority of whom aren't wearing Maga hats or bumperstickers... etc...

Still early on. but IA does have a history of voting DEM from way back, but also a swingey state in many ways,,,,

No reason not to fight to core.... no reason why Trump would somehow invigorate down-ballot turnout any better than Biden at this point...

Looks pretty obvious to most Americans that Trump is not a real Christian (25% YES),.... Biden should work well with the Iowa Catholic and Mainstream Protestant Bloc...

College kids come back and REG to VOTE, IA could def be a toss-up, depending upon ntl margins.

[Alben Barkley]

Safe R

A statistical tie, isn’t Safe R lmao

Oh god is this the new SN?

[lfromnj]

If Biden wins three congressional districts then he probably will win the state.

Not when the state was Trump +9 and 3 of the districts are Trump + 4 lol. Hubbel literally managed to win all 3 districts yet still lose.

Lol read the damn poll before you try to chastise anyone. The poll has Biden leading from 5% to 14% in three districts with Trump up big in IA-4 and Trump is only up by 1% overall. All Biden has to do is slightly perform better in one district and he wins the state.

It is not 2016 anymore, so what happened then is irrelevant now.

Why don't you read the damn poll?
The entire poll is 700 people which is a fine sample but htat means each district has sub 200 people and it wouldn't even be perfectly weighted.

[ProudModerate2]

Iowa looks to be in play.
trump has to play defense all over the map, and will not have time or resources to play any offence (target new states).
This is not looking good for the Orange Buffoon.

[DrScholl]

If Biden wins three congressional districts then he probably will win the state.

Not when the state was Trump +9 and 3 of the districts are Trump + 4 lol. Hubbel literally managed to win all 3 districts yet still lose.

Lol read the damn poll before you try to chastise anyone. The poll has Biden leading from 5% to 14% in three districts with Trump up big in IA-4 and Trump is only up by 1% overall. All Biden has to do is slightly perform better in one district and he wins the state.

It is not 2016 anymore, so what happened then is irrelevant now.

Why don't you read the damn poll?
The entire poll is 700 people which is a fine sample but htat means each district has sub 200 people and it wouldn't even be perfectly weighted.

Whatever. No matter how you dissect it it's not a good poll for Trump, period.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Iowa President by Selzer & Co on 2020-06-10

Summary: D: 43%, R: 44%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[lfromnj]

If Biden wins three congressional districts then he probably will win the state.

Not when the state was Trump +9 and 3 of the districts are Trump + 4 lol. Hubbel literally managed to win all 3 districts yet still lose.

Lol read the damn poll before you try to chastise anyone. The poll has Biden leading from 5% to 14% in three districts with Trump up big in IA-4 and Trump is only up by 1% overall. All Biden has to do is slightly perform better in one district and he wins the state.

It is not 2016 anymore, so what happened then is irrelevant now.

Why don't you read the damn poll?
The entire poll is 700 people which is a fine sample but htat means each district has sub 200 people and it wouldn't even be perfectly weighted.

Whatever. No matter how you dissect it it's not a good poll for Trump, period.

Ok?
when did I say that, im just arguing the lean of each district relative to the state and then you just call me a Trump hack?

[MT Treasurer]

If Biden can’t flip IA in this environment, 2012 will have been the last time a Democrat has carried that state at the presidential level for a long time. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to predict that whatever success IA Democrats may have this fall is going to be very short-lived.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Anyone surprised by Iowa potentially being in play clearly has not studied the political history of the state.  It can often swing wildly, sometimes in unpredictable ways.  For example, it was the only state in the union to swing toward George Bush in 1992.

[Sir Mohamed]

Lean R.

Trump just at 44% should worry him to an extent, but I'm not convinced IA will flip for Biden. It's going to be closer than 2016 for sure.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R.

Trump just at 44% should worry him to an extent, but I'm not convinced IA will flip for Biden. It's going to be closer than 2016 for sure.

Yeah and Collins in the ME is up by 1 as well, is that Likely R. OH, IA and FL all flipped when Obama and Biden won the PVI hy 4 points in 2012. I can see all 3 flipping again in this climate, it doesnt take much in 10.1 percent unemployment to have a natl tide: 2008 and 2010 proved this point

[BobbieMac]

Was 51/41 in March, so this is in line with the overall national polling shift.

[MillennialModerate]

Now THIS is a state I wouldn’t mind a congressional allocation

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is gonna be some split voting, I wouldn't mind if Collins sticks around either. But, Ernst is far more conservative than Collins and dont want her to stick around.

Dems arent gonna sweep everything, just like TX can vote to left of FL, given that Mexican Latinos are more liberal than Cubans and PR.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Safe R

A statistical tie, isn’t Safe R lmao

Oh god is this the new SN?

Probably. They're slightly less obnoxious so far though. It just goes to show that Trump supporters really are a hive-mind though when it comes down to how they perceive of things.

[NOVA Green]

Should be noted that it is worthwhile for Biden to invest, since not only do we have the (3) Fed House Districts, US-SEN race, but additionally, a decent chance DEM's could flip the State House (Currently 53-47 R)....

Biden $$$ need to go not only to PRES Swing States, but additionally support down-ballot races, including potential flips to State House & Senate Races....

IA is much cheaper than TX, but same concept applies....

Boost turnout so that down-ballot DEMs squeak over the top to flip seats that otherwise might go the other direction without high levels DEM and IND leaning DEM Turnout....

Esp when the Enthusiasm Gap is starting to run a bit more favorable towards the DEMs as Biden solidifies much of the Bernie supporters that were a bit more skeptical prior to massive hits from COVID-19 & George Floyd Protest Movements that helps unite the skeptical young idealists with their suffering parents and grandparents....

IA is a cheap "pay to play" state that doesn't involve tons of $$$ on advertising, but certainly some $$$ to support DEM GE Volunteers at many County Levels will fund the bills for various DEM candidates to piggy-back off w/o having to foot the real estate off of their own dime....

[Gass3268]

If Biden is winning non-college educated white women by 18 points in Iowa that means he's probably winning Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Minnesota by Baldwin, Whitmer, Casey, and Walz margins. If he's getting close to that number in Ohio, he's probably pulling out a narrow win.

Non-college educated white women are probably the most important demographic this election.