IA-Selzer: Trump +1

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

If Biden wins three congressional districts then he probably will win the state.

IA-04 is like Trumplingrad. Fred Hubble won 3/4 districts narrowly but lost because he got killed in the 4th. This seems to be where Iowa is at now in the Presidential polling.

[Bidenworth2020]

One thing to note about Iowa-- Trump just did a pretty big ad buy here. This might help to explain the unusually large gap between between Biden and other democrats' performances.

[Hope For A New Era]

IA-01: 48-43 Biden
IA-02: 48-34 Biden
IA-03: 49-41 Biden
IA-04: 59-28 Trump

Great, the northwest part is going to do a NoVa.

[BudgieForce]

If Biden were looking for a place to spend money, I don't think Iowa would be a terrible option.

[Senator-elect Spark]

"The Gold Standard"

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems dont need to win IA, Dems only IA is only critical in Congressional races and Senate, since IA will gove Ds 51 votes instead of 50, and incumbent House members are critical for House majority.

Ernst is just as endangered as Collins and Tillis

[DrScholl]

Reynolds is not a maniac and managed to keep the other districts within 3 points. Biden is leading by 5, 14 and 8 in IA-1, IA-2 and IA-3 respectively. That is a lot better than what Hubbell got.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

If Biden were looking for a place to spend money, I don't think Iowa would be a terrible option.

The only reason to spend money here is to keep the margin close to help Greenfield, Axne, Hart and Finkenauer. Iowa’s 6 electoral votes pale in comparison to Texas and Georgia

[South Dakota Democrat]

Time to give IA-04 to South Dakota.

Nah, Iowa can keep it.

[NOVA Green]

Trump only captured 51% of the Vote in 2016 in IA, despite winning the State by about 9% margins.

Today, just 22% of Iowans say the nation is on the right track. Another 63% say the nation is on the wrong track, including a plurality of Republicans (45%). It’s rare for members of a political party to break with a sitting president of the same party, Selzer said.

Trump’s approval rating has fallen 5 percentage points from March to 45% today. Now, a majority of Iowans — 52% — disapprove of the job he’s doing.

That ratings dip coincides with disapproval of the president’s handling of two major current events.

Forty-five percent of Iowans say they approve of how he has addressed COVID-19, while 53% disapprove and 6% are unsure. Just 37% approve of the way he has addressed protests surrounding race and police actions. Another 55% disapprove and 8% are unsure.

It appears as though there is more room for Biden to grow and less room for Trump to grow among outstanding undecided / "3rd Party" voters.

Tons of Obama > Trump voters in Iowa, not to mention higher than average numbers of Catholics & Evangelical Christian & Union Type swing voters....

Also a good chance with colleges having been effectively shut down, that once school opens up in September there are a bunch more out-of-state college students coming back to town....

Wouldn't trip on the PRES poll yet if I were a DEM, let alone get to excitable and have sour cream running down by swimming trunks if I were a pro-Trump PUB....

Fact that we are even talking about this right now speaks volumes about the current state of the PRES race....

[South Dakota Democrat]

How the heck is Ernst underperforming Trump

Hes not, if Biden is leading by 9 pts, then Biden will win IA. Polls are based on turnout

I don't think you actually read the post you quoted.

Also, I think you're a bot.

[South Dakota Democrat]

If Biden were looking for a place to spend money, I don't think Iowa would be a terrible option.

It's pretty cheap to advertise in, as well.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

How the heck is Ernst underperforming Trump

Hes not, if Biden is leading by 9 pts, then Biden will win IA. Polls are based on turnout

I don't think you actually read the post you quoted.

Also, I think you're a bot.

He's not.  That's why we love him. 

[BlueGrassKentuckian]

What’s the fascination with this man? Or Biden for a matter of fact.

[wbrocks67]

First of all, really Selzer? 13% undecided? That's ridiculous (March, three months ago, had 8% undecided)

Secondly, I don't see how this poll is good for Trump. He has a -7 approval in a state he won by 10%, and his approval is 45%... essentially his vote share of 44%. Could mean his ceiling is lower than we all think.

Thirdly, Dems are leading the GCB and Greenfield is leading as well, so that to me, shows that Biden has more wiggle room to grow here than Trump does.

I'll repeat though that Selzer having 13% undecided is embarrassing. C'mon now. Push people. This 44-43 nonsense is some 2016 sh**t.

[BudgieForce]

First of all, really Selzer? 13% undecided? That's ridiculous (March, three months ago, had 8% undecided)

Secondly, I don't see how this poll is good for Trump. He has a -7 approval in a state he won by 10%, and his approval is 45%... essentially his vote share of 44%. Could mean his ceiling is lower than we all think.

Thirdly, Dems are leading the GCB and Greenfield is leading as well, so that to me, shows that Biden has more wiggle room to grow here than Trump does.

I'll repeat though that Selzer having 13% undecided is embarrassing. C'mon now. Push people. This 44-43 nonsense is some 2016 sh**t.

I believe this poll has 9% "someone else", 1% "will not vote" and 3% "undecided". While it seems hard to believe, "someone else" did get about 8% in Iowa in 2016.

[Ferguson97]

Having a 1 point lead in a state you won by 9 points is good, actually

[Xing]

It would take a landslide to flip IA, but it’s noteworthy that Ernst is underperforming Trump by 4.

[psychprofessor]

This was one of the swing states Trump carried with over 50% in 2016 - for him to only be at 44% 4.5 months out is pretty bad tbh.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

First of all, really Selzer? 13% undecided? That's ridiculous (March, three months ago, had 8% undecided)

Secondly, I don't see how this poll is good for Trump. He has a -7 approval in a state he won by 10%, and his approval is 45%... essentially his vote share of 44%. Could mean his ceiling is lower than we all think.

Thirdly, Dems are leading the GCB and Greenfield is leading as well, so that to me, shows that Biden has more wiggle room to grow here than Trump does.

I'll repeat though that Selzer having 13% undecided is embarrassing. C'mon now. Push people. This 44-43 nonsense is some 2016 sh**t.

I believe this poll has 9% "someone else", 1% "will not vote" and 3% "undecided". While it seems hard to believe, "someone else" did get about 8% in Iowa in 2016.

Sources? I don't see that in the Des Moines register.

[BudgieForce]

First of all, really Selzer? 13% undecided? That's ridiculous (March, three months ago, had 8% undecided)

Secondly, I don't see how this poll is good for Trump. He has a -7 approval in a state he won by 10%, and his approval is 45%... essentially his vote share of 44%. Could mean his ceiling is lower than we all think.

Thirdly, Dems are leading the GCB and Greenfield is leading as well, so that to me, shows that Biden has more wiggle room to grow here than Trump does.

I'll repeat though that Selzer having 13% undecided is embarrassing. C'mon now. Push people. This 44-43 nonsense is some 2016 sh**t.

I believe this poll has 9% "someone else", 1% "will not vote" and 3% "undecided". While it seems hard to believe, "someone else" did get about 8% in Iowa in 2016.

Sources? I don't see that in the Des Moines register.

The actual poll is at the bottom of the page. It's 4 pages.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

First of all, really Selzer? 13% undecided? That's ridiculous (March, three months ago, had 8% undecided)

Secondly, I don't see how this poll is good for Trump. He has a -7 approval in a state he won by 10%, and his approval is 45%... essentially his vote share of 44%. Could mean his ceiling is lower than we all think.

Thirdly, Dems are leading the GCB and Greenfield is leading as well, so that to me, shows that Biden has more wiggle room to grow here than Trump does.

I'll repeat though that Selzer having 13% undecided is embarrassing. C'mon now. Push people. This 44-43 nonsense is some 2016 sh**t.

I believe this poll has 9% "someone else", 1% "will not vote" and 3% "undecided". While it seems hard to believe, "someone else" did get about 8% in Iowa in 2016.

Sources? I don't see that in the Des Moines register.

The actual poll is at the bottom of the page. It's 4 pages.

I'm not seeing that here, but will take your word for it assuming you mean a physical copy of the DMR/the US site being different than the EU version.

[Lief 🗽]

Would love to get some Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin polls. If Selzer says Iowa is tied, Biden should be up ~10 points in those states.

[OneJ]

I'm not really sure why people really don't think Ernst could underperform Trump regardless of whether or not she actually would.

[Buzz]

Safe R