Kentucky Senate 1984: Huddleston (D) beats McConnell

[voice_of_resistance]

What if Dee Huddleston actually campaigned properly and beat Mitch McConnell? How long would he survive? Any noticeable policy changes now that the Grim Turtle is gone?

I personally think this is how it goes

1984: wins vs. McConnell 50-49
1990: wins vs. Larry Hopkins 54-46
1996: wins vs. Ed Whitfield 55-43
2002: here's where it gets tough. 2002 sunk many southern Dems, but I think if Huddleston could beat a dogged campaigner like McConnell in 84, he could win in 2002. wins vs. Ernie Fletcher 49-48
2008: blue wave carries him over vs. Geoff Davis 55-40
2014: at this point he is a 7th-term incumbent running for an 8th. Most of the losses in 2014 were from shorter-serving senators. The longer-serving ones like Baucus/Harkin/Rockefeller retired. If Huddleston retires, then safe R pickup obviously. If he stays in, I'm thinking he wins 51-48 vs. Matt Bevin, and then dies in office.

What are your thoughts?

[S019]

1984, 1990, and 1996, I agree that he wins. 2002 is a bit hard, given Cleland lost, and Clement didn't do that well in a competitive race in TN, but Landrieu also won in a runoff. Given KY was still somewhat downballot Democrat, I'll say he wins by 1 to 2, he wins in 2008, but only by like 5 to 6. In 2014, his approval ratings would be in the cellar and he would lose by Blanche Lincoln margins, if he ran again, he probably retires though. Safe R, either way.

[voice_of_resistance]

Fair. Why would his approvals be in the cellar in 2014? He definitely would have voted against Obamacare/cap and trade/gun reform.

[😥]

I think he would win reelections pretty easily in 1990, 1996, barely wins in 2002 and retires in 2008. Kentucky elected Daniel Mongiardo as Senator in 2008, who lost in 2014

[S019]

Fair. Why would his approvals be in the cellar in 2014? He definitely would have voted against Obamacare/cap and trade/gun reform.

How can we be sure of that, Ben Nelson was also sure to vote against these things. Anyways, ask 2010 rural Democrats how voting against the ACA saved their re-election bids. KY was simply not voting Democrat in 2014, especially not when the Democrats were the party of liberals like Obama and Reid, Huddleston would have been crushed in the coal country part of the state.



Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patient_Protection_and_Affordable_Care_Act

For comparison (2010 House elections):

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections

For instance, look at this map, Herseth-Sandlin, Walt Minnick, Harry Teague, Rick Boucher, etc. voted against the ACA, and they still lost in 2010. Also the minute that Republican Super PACs ran the "Huddleston would be a deciding vote for Harry Reid's agenda" he would have been dead in the water.

[KaiserDave]

[voice_of_resistance]

Fair. Why would his approvals be in the cellar in 2014? He definitely would have voted against Obamacare/cap and trade/gun reform.

How can we be sure of that, Ben Nelson was also sure to vote against these things. Anyways, ask 2010 rural Democrats how voting against the ACA saved their re-election bids. KY was simply not voting Democrat in 2014, especially not when the Democrats were the party of liberals like Obama and Reid, Huddleston would have been crushed in the coal country part of the state.



Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patient_Protection_and_Affordable_Care_Act

For instance, look at this map, Herseth-Sandlin, Walt Minnick, Harry Teague, Rick Boucher, etc. voted against the ACA, and they still lost in 2010. Also the minute that Republican Super PACs ran the "Huddleston would be a deciding vote for Harry Reid's agenda" he would have been dead in the water.

Yeah good point. He'd still get 7 terms though, serving 1973-2015, which is pretty legendary. Wasn't he a member of some anti immigrant hate group later in life?

[WD]

Fair. Why would his approvals be in the cellar in 2014? He definitely would have voted against Obamacare/cap and trade/gun reform.

How can we be sure of that, Ben Nelson was also sure to vote against these things. Anyways, ask 2010 rural Democrats how voting against the ACA saved their re-election bids. KY was simply not voting Democrat in 2014, especially not when the Democrats were the party of liberals like Obama and Reid, Huddleston would have been crushed in the coal country part of the state.



Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patient_Protection_and_Affordable_Care_Act

For instance, look at this map, Herseth-Sandlin, Walt Minnick, Harry Teague, Rick Boucher, etc. voted against the ACA, and they still lost in 2010. Also the minute that Republican Super PACs ran the "Huddleston would be a deciding vote for Harry Reid's agenda" he would have been dead in the water.

Yeah good point. He'd still get 7 terms though, serving 1973-2015, which is pretty legendary. Wasn't he a member of some anti immigrant hate group later in life?

Yeah, https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federation_for_American_Immigration_Reform

[voice_of_resistance]

lol he and Steve King would have torn up the floor. Still prob better than McConnell though

[voice_of_resistance]

Fair. Why would his approvals be in the cellar in 2014? He definitely would have voted against Obamacare/cap and trade/gun reform.

How can we be sure of that, Ben Nelson was also sure to vote against these things. Anyways, ask 2010 rural Democrats how voting against the ACA saved their re-election bids. KY was simply not voting Democrat in 2014, especially not when the Democrats were the party of liberals like Obama and Reid, Huddleston would have been crushed in the coal country part of the state.



Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patient_Protection_and_Affordable_Care_Act

For instance, look at this map, Herseth-Sandlin, Walt Minnick, Harry Teague, Rick Boucher, etc. voted against the ACA, and they still lost in 2010. Also the minute that Republican Super PACs ran the "Huddleston would be a deciding vote for Harry Reid's agenda" he would have been dead in the water.

Yeah good point. He'd still get 7 terms though, serving 1973-2015, which is pretty legendary. Wasn't he a member of some anti immigrant hate group later in life?

Yeah, https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federation_for_American_Immigration_Reform

Assuming he ran in 2014, how much would he lose by? Would it be a Landrieu level loss or a Mark Pryor level loss?

[WD]

Fair. Why would his approvals be in the cellar in 2014? He definitely would have voted against Obamacare/cap and trade/gun reform.

How can we be sure of that, Ben Nelson was also sure to vote against these things. Anyways, ask 2010 rural Democrats how voting against the ACA saved their re-election bids. KY was simply not voting Democrat in 2014, especially not when the Democrats were the party of liberals like Obama and Reid, Huddleston would have been crushed in the coal country part of the state.



Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patient_Protection_and_Affordable_Care_Act

For instance, look at this map, Herseth-Sandlin, Walt Minnick, Harry Teague, Rick Boucher, etc. voted against the ACA, and they still lost in 2010. Also the minute that Republican Super PACs ran the "Huddleston would be a deciding vote for Harry Reid's agenda" he would have been dead in the water.

Yeah good point. He'd still get 7 terms though, serving 1973-2015, which is pretty legendary. Wasn't he a member of some anti immigrant hate group later in life?

Yeah, https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federation_for_American_Immigration_Reform

Assuming he ran in 2014, how much would he lose by? Would it be a Landrieu level loss or a Mark Pryor level loss?

He’d Probably preform similar to Grimes in 2014

[voice_of_resistance]

so like 56-41 or so? I don't see a 7-term incumbent losing THAT badly, maybe like 55-44 or so.

[NewYorkExpress]

1990: Defeats McConnell again 55-40.

1996: Defeats Hal Rogers 54-46

2002: Loses to Anne Northup 51-48.

[Alben Barkley]

I think you’re right that he could have made it as far as 2014, 2002 at least.

Oh what could have been if Reagan’s coattails in 1984 hadn’t put the Turtle over the top with just a few thousand Kentucky votes...

Seriously, if Mondale had done just slightly better, that might have been enough to avoid this.

[voice_of_resistance]

I think you’re right that he could have made it as far as 2014, 2002 at least.

Oh what could have been if Reagan’s coattails in 1984 hadn’t put the Turtle over the top with just a few thousand Kentucky votes...

Seriously, if Mondale had done just slightly better, that might have been enough to avoid this.

I know. This senate race was the real tragedy of 84. Was Huddleston a Dixiecrat conservative or was he more populist in the Fritz Hollings manner?

[Left Wing]

1990: Defeats McConnell again 55-40.

1996: Defeats Hal Rogers 54-46

2002: Loses to Anne Northup 51-48.

I think Northup would lose in 2008 as she would be less entrenched than McConnell.