Abacus Data: Biden +10% among 'certain to vote', +14% among registered voters

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://abacusdata.ca/biden_trump_2020_abacus-data/

June 11-13, 2020
Full sample: 1500 adults with an MoE of 2.5%
Likely ("certain to vote") voter sample: 63% of this, so around 945 likely voters

Among registered voters (sample size not given, but presumably larger than the LV sample):
Biden 49%
Trump 35%
Not sure 9%
Other 4%
Would not vote 2%

Among likely voters:
Biden 51%
Trump 41%

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Among men, Biden leads by 13, although he is tied with Trump among White men. Biden leads by 15-points among women and 14-points among White women. Biden also leads, albeit by a smaller margin among White suburban women by 7-points. In our sample, Clinton lost suburban White women to Trump by 9-points in 2016. This represents a 16-point swing in Biden’s favour.

[wbrocks67]

Never heard of them but lines up with what we're seeing right now.

Muh jobs bump tho

[ugabug]

Considering how high partisanship is nowadays it's rather amazing Trump seems to be down double digits in so many of these polls.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is leading by 14, Trump isnt gonna win, too bad

[wbrocks67]

Interesting, they're legit:

With less than 150 days until Americans choose a President for the next four years, Abacus (one of Canada’s most accurate polling company in the 2019 federal election) surveyed 1500 Americans on their feelings about the choice coming up, and also about Canada-US relations.

[Adam Griffin]

Among men, Biden leads by 13, although he is tied with Trump among White men. Biden leads by 15-points among women and 14-points among White women. Biden also leads, albeit by a smaller margin among White suburban women by 7-points. In our sample, Clinton lost suburban White women to Trump by 9-points in 2016. This represents a 16-point swing in Biden’s favour.

🗑️🗑️🗑️

[ON Progressive]

Weird crosstabs, although given they were very accurate in last year’s Canadian federal election and it isn’t an outlier, I can believe the topline.

[Sir Mohamed]

Biden leading by 13 among men? Nah.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Sample sizes retrieved by 538:

1224 registered voters
1004 "certain to vote"

[Lief 🗽]

Always enjoy when foreign pollsters hop across the border and bless us with some of their numbers. Would absolutely love a Survation poll one of these days if possible!

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Always enjoy when foreign pollsters hop across the border and bless us with some of their numbers. Would absolutely love a Survation poll one of these days if possible!

Trump would be at 100% among REAL Americans.