Alaska (Dem Internal): Biden and Trump in a Dead Heat

[Bidenworth2020]

Not many details, but the recent Cook article on the Alaska Senate race had this little tidbit:

Recent Democratic polling shows the race is tied, with Sullivan not well-defined among voters. The same poll also has Trump and Biden in a statistical dead heat and puts the president's approval rating slightly underwater. However, Alaska is a state that is notoriously hard to poll and Republicans are, perhaps rightly, skeptical of such numbers. They say their own polling doesn't worry them in regards to Sullivan, but that they're taking the race seriously.

Source:  https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/alaska-senate/alaska-senate-moves-likely-republican

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Wish we could see the numbers. Only other Alaska poll was from Summer 2019, from Zogby no less.

[Stockdale for Veep]

Alaskans heard that sunlight kills COVID. But due to 24 of constant daylight, they have become sleep-deprived and delirious.

[2016]

Not many details, but the recent Cook article on the Alaska Senate race had this little tidbit:

Recent Democratic polling shows the race is tied, with Sullivan not well-defined among voters. The same poll also has Trump and Biden in a statistical dead heat and puts the president's approval rating slightly underwater. However, Alaska is a state that is notoriously hard to poll and Republicans are, perhaps rightly, skeptical of such numbers. They say their own polling doesn't worry them in regards to Sullivan, but that they're taking the race seriously.

Source:  https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/alaska-senate/alaska-senate-moves-likely-republican

I mean what do you expect when Trumps JA Nationally is 39 % via Politico and Gallup. These Numbers seem plausible.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is getting ridiculous. There is only so much positivity that I am willing believe.

[2016]

This is getting ridiculous. There is only so much positivity that I am willing believe.

Why ridiculous! National Polls and State Polls go Hand-In-Hand. If you're an Incumbent President having a 39 % JA in the Country per Politico/Morning Consult & Gallup and trailing by Double Digits to your Opponent you are not going to win a lot of States and even Republican-favoured States are statistical Dead-Heats then.

[wbrocks67]

Not really surprising - Civiqs has Trump approval at 49/48 right now

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

[Eraserhead]

Too bad the election isn't this Tuesday. It sure looks like Trump would be wiped out in brutal fashion.

There's still lots of time for him to falter though.

[Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy]

Alaska, like Montana, has always seemed like one of those states that could go in a real wave year. I want to see some more data before I make any ratings changes, but I'm keeping an eye on it.

[NewYorkExpress]

Can't see Biden beating Trump here, and I'd be curious about which party Gross would actually caucus with in the Senate if he wins, as he's not a registered Democrat or Republican, if my memory is correct.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is gonna get wiped out, Gary Johnson last time ensured that Trump got elected and Amash, whom isnt running, and a 10.1 percent unemployment rate is gonna be the factor in a Supermajority Senate and Dem trifecta

[pppolitics]

The problem is that, in Alaska, you have to be pro-oil and I don't think Biden can be pro-oil without alienating some liberal supporters.

[NOVA Green]

Trump is gonna get wiped out, Gary Johnson last time ensured that Trump got elected and Amash, whom isnt running, and a 10.1 percent unemployment rate is gonna be the factor in a Supermajority Senate and Dem trifecta

Current unemployment rate in Alaska (non seasonally adjusted) is 13.7%.... with 15.5% in MatSu, 13.9% in Anchorage....

Obviously there is a good chance this will change once some of the tourism related stuff starts to come back (although with cruise ships not really running, and a lot of folks not wanting to fly anytime soon, makes it a lot harder to get to Alaska than most other States in the Union.

Alaska also has one the highest rates of Union Membership in the United States, much if it because of the outsized role of public sector employment within the labor market....

I would imagine that a combination of collapsing oil markets, not to mention hits to the State Budget, might well cause sustained unemployment rates through November, even with a bit of a recovery to tourism related employment numbers....

https://live.laborstats.alaska.gov/labforce/

Obviously we'll need a bit more than one DEM internal, and granted it's still a bit of time before the election, but yeah although Alaskans might be able to see Russia from their back porch, they also know much could have been done to reduce the spread and impact of the virus within the US.

Also, anti=incumbent sentiment should help the DEMs here, plus Biden doesn't have the same kind of issues that HRC might have had with some types of Western voters....

[CivicParticipant]

Malarkey.

[ponderosa peen 🌲]

Sounds like Biden has a real shot in winning the majority of Land Area and therefore the election.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Joe Biden needs to pick Sarah Palin as VP to finish the job, they will never see it coming!

[NOVA Green]

Joe Biden needs to pick Sarah Palin as VP to finish the job, they will never see it coming!

Biden-Murkowski ticket might do better....

At that point we got AK, MT, UT, & AZ pretty much locked up....   

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Can't see Biden beating Trump here, and I'd be curious about which party Gross would actually caucus with in the Senate if he wins, as he's not a registered Democrat or Republican, if my memory is correct.

He's pledged to caucus with the Dems. From what I've seen he's running a lot on climate change so it makes sense.

[PSOL]

I doubt Alaska goes Democratic this year, but this is a sign of what’s to come if the GOP keeps shooting itself in the foot in a few more cycles.

[Lief 🗽]

There is definitely a coalition of Democrats, independents, and moderate Republicans in this state that can win. Look at Murkowski's re-elections, Walker in 2014, the state legislature. Even Begich's loss in a wave year was still pretty close. And Trump, while he won by 15 points, barely hit a majority. So if Biden is really up double digits, it could happen.

[WD]

This is getting ridiculous. There is only so much positivity that I am willing believe.

Why ridiculous! National Polls and State Polls go Hand-In-Hand. If you're an Incumbent President having a 39 % JA in the Country per Politico/Morning Consult & Gallup and trailing by Double Digits to your Opponent you are not going to win a lot of States and even Republican-favoured States are statistical Dead-Heats then.

What happened to you? I thought you were a huge Trump fan

[Sir Mohamed]

What's going on? Multiple polls showing Mr. Trump tied or barely up in Titanium R states. Usually I would discount such polls as garbage, but appears to be a pattern here. Probably he's actually in deep trouble as we speak, which would also explain Biden up by 10-14 pts in national polls. Even if the case, I don't think it will last to November. Biden will remain favored to election day unless something drastic happens, but AK, MO or AR won't be in play.

[Landslide Lyndon]

A Democratic internal poll of Alaska has less predictive value that drawing numbers out of a hat.

[Adam Griffin]

Alaska is and has been a sleeper for quite some time.

Ignoring the fact that we won the Senate race in '08 and barely lost it in '14, as well as the fact that Democrats won* the gubernatorial election there in '14, it's the only state to swing Democratic in 3 consecutive presidential elections in the 21st century (and when its track record ceased in 2016, it was because the state swung a measly 0.74 points to Trump).

With the oil crisis disproportionately affecting AK, Biden has a small but realistic chance of hitting 44-45% in the state. Given state/local Democrats overperform, such a performance would probably be enough to win the Senate seat (and depending on third party behavior, Biden himself might have an outside chance). Let's not forget that Begich won in '08 with Obama garnering 38% statewide.

[Panda Express]

Alaska isn't really a rural state, 40% live in Anchorage. Only New York has a higher percentage of residents who live in its most populous city.

Meaning, urban/rural trends will actually benefit Democrats in Alaska.