Rank SC, MS, and KY Senate races

[Orser67]

In light of some recent polls showing close or semi-close races, which of these Southern states do Democrats have the best chances of winning?

[7,052,770]

1. KY
2. SC
3. MS

Always open to changing the rankings as new information comes in.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

SC, TX and KY. Why waste $$$ in MS

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

SC. If there really was a coordinated attempt to release oppo research on Graham in the final few weeks, it could give Harrison a shot.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Dems have a shot in TX, since Abbott isn't on ballot and Biden is tied with Trump in TX

[SnowLabrador]

All Safe R.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

All Safe R.

Replace TX with MS and you have a Supermajority.  Minimum wage havent been raised since 2006 and WC whites want a minimum wage increase just like poor Latinos and African Americans whom work in manufacturing just like WC whites. That's why NC is getting away from Rs

7.25 to 15.00 needs to be raised and since 2006 Rs have been in the WH or Congress as the majority blocking minimum wage Bill

[Tekken_Guy]

At the very least, Harrison could at least help pull Cunningham over the finish line. I don’t see how Cunningham loses if Graham doesn’t carry SC-1 in his Senate race.

[ProgressiveModerate]

MS - Safe R, too inelastic
KY - Safe R, KY is too red, and they've had him fro all these years, plus he gves KY a seat at the table they otherwise wouldn't have
SC - Likely R, Lindsay Graham has defiantely become less popular, but SC is very inelastic, but still slightly less red than MS.

[Orser67]

1)South Carolina
2)Kentucky
(large gap for comical effect)
3)Mississippi

South Carolina and Kentucky are both Likely R at this point for me, although both are far closer to Safe than Lean. MS is Titanium R.

[Calthrina950]

MS - Safe R, too inelastic
KY - Safe R, KY is too red, and they've had him fro all these years, plus he gives KY a seat at the table they otherwise wouldn't have
SC - Likely R, Lindsay Graham has definitely become less popular, but SC is very inelastic, but still slightly less red than MS.

I agree with your ranking here, but a paradox is evident here, with regards to Lindsey Graham's popularity. By turning himself into a staunch Trumpist, he has locked up the loyalty of the Republican base, as demonstrated by the fact that he won his primary with an overwhelming majority this time. Conversely, Graham has weakened his position with independents and Democrats, who once held a higher regard for him as one of the Senate's "maverick" conservatives. Hence, a Graham victory by high single digits against Jaime Harrison would not surprise me.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

W.r.t. MS and KY, I’m not sure which is a more likely Democratic flip. They’re both safe, non-titanium R right now (Democratic chances are <5% but a winning coalition is theoretically possible in both states). That being said, if the Democratic nominee stepped aside in KY and was replaced (is this legal in KY? It is in some states) by an especially strong candidate, the race would instantly become competitive. There’s no obvious figure for whom this would be true in MS, so my rankings go:

1. SC
(Big gap)
2. KY
3. MS

If Trump’s terrible trend somehow got even worse (I have a hard time seeing any acceleration beyond the steady decline at this point), these non-titanium races might become competitive, along with - perhaps - AL-SEN. I just don’t see it so they’re all (SC aside) still safe R in my book.

[GlobeSoc]

South Carolina is the only one that might be winnable in a sub-double digit year if Graham falls asleep at the wheel or something. Now, if the bottom falls out for Republicans and Biden/congressional dems are winning by double digits, KY might be in reach just because of McConnel's inevitable underperformance - usually KY is too republican for it to matter though, and outside of an absolutely perfect storm it won't flip. If the economy wasn't such epic trash i'd say that the volatility wouldn't be there for a KY flip to be possible; this is the difference between a 0% and a ~2-5% chance though, not too much in the grand scheme of things. It certainly isn't a high enough chance to stop meming about mcconnel's invincibility, because a McConnel+6 win is still a win for McConnel lol

MS won't flip period, but it may have some interesting swings in the Jackson metro.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

SC
TX
KY
MS

In that order

[andjey]

1. SC: Likely R
2. KY: Safe R
3. MS: Safe R

[YE]

All safe R. Not really buying the SC hype.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Realistically, all of them are Safe R, but SC will probably be the closest.

[We Live in Black and White]

There is a universe in which we win SC, but that window is borderline impossibly narrow. The other two are safe.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

All safe R. Not really buying the SC hype.

Harrison can win and Dems are targeting TX and TX is a battleground state at Prez level

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

MS will flip someday but 2020 is too early. I say 2030s
SC is going to trend hard R this decade

[VAR]

All Safe R.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

All Safe R.

SC can flip.

[smoltchanov]

SC, but - unlikely too.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

SC, but - unlikely too.

Yes it can with Biden leading by 13 pts nationally

[Consuming is good, it's what we're made for]

SC is most likely but yeah none of these are flipping.