Why did Ted Cruz underperform Trump so much In Texas in 2018?
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  Why did Ted Cruz underperform Trump so much In Texas in 2018?
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Author Topic: Why did Ted Cruz underperform Trump so much In Texas in 2018?  (Read 384 times)
Cyrusman
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« on: June 14, 2020, 01:29:56 PM »

Not only did Beto overperform Clinton by a lot but Cruz got over 400k less votes than Trump.

Was this an example of Democrats being way more energized to vote and a lot of 16 Trump voters being complacent in a midterm and staying home?
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ctrepublican512
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« Reply #1 on: June 14, 2020, 01:30:55 PM »

cause he sucks
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #2 on: June 14, 2020, 01:34:56 PM »

Because the state is changing rapidly and 2018 was a massive Democratic wave election. I know people love to parrot this myth, but Cruz isn’t actually deeply unpopular in the state (or more unpopular than Cornyn and Trump, for that matter).
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Brittain33
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« Reply #3 on: June 14, 2020, 01:42:49 PM »

Given midterm dropoffs, even with high turnout this time, how many Republican senators in competitive races didn’t underperform Trump ‘16?
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #4 on: June 14, 2020, 01:48:55 PM »

Given midterm dropoffs, even with high turnout this time, how many Republican senators in competitive races didn’t underperform Trump ‘16?

In terms of margin, Romney, Hugin, Wicker and Diehl were the only Senate candidates to outperform him.
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Orser67
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« Reply #5 on: June 14, 2020, 02:16:54 PM »

In 2016, Trump won TX by just under 9 points while losing the national popular vote by 2.1 points, so TX voted about 11.1 points to the right of the country.

In 2018, Cruz won TX by about 2.6 points, while Dems won the national popular house vote by about 8.6 points, so (if one takes the national House vote as a reliable indicator of the nationwide atmosphere) TX voted about 11.2 points to the right of the country.

I'm not saying these numbers are a perfect indicator of exactly how much TX voted to the right of the country (and some might prefer to adjust the 2018 House vote for uncontested seats, or to compare the 2018 House vote to the 2016 House vote, etc.) but it's important to understand that 2018 was a more favorable national environment for Dems than 2016, and the vast majority (if not all) of the Senate Republicans who ran in 2018 would have done better in 2016.

Also, it's generally not wise to compare raw vote totals between presidential election years and mid-term years. For example, in 2014 Cornyn won about 1.7 million less votes than Romney had in 2012, even though Cornyn won by ~25 points and Romney won by ~17 points. The fact that Cruz "only" won 400k less votes than Trump is a testament to the extraordinarily high turnout rate of the 2018 midterms.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #6 on: June 14, 2020, 03:18:20 PM »

Easy. 2018 was a much better year for Democrats and Texas is trending Democratic.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: June 14, 2020, 03:32:54 PM »

Abbott saved Ted Cruz from certain defeat, that's why Trump is endangered in TX, due to fact Abbott isnt on ballot
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Miss J
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« Reply #8 on: June 14, 2020, 04:55:03 PM »

Beto did an excellent job in energizing and mobilizing voters in the state.  Unlike the presidential campaign he ran, his Senate campaign was probably one of the best of the cycle.  He really came from nowhere.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #9 on: June 14, 2020, 07:56:48 PM »


Lyin' Ted.
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