AR-Hendrix: Trump +2
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  AR-Hendrix: Trump +2
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Author Topic: AR-Hendrix: Trump +2  (Read 9702 times)
South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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« Reply #75 on: June 14, 2020, 09:09:41 PM »

It's a blue wave, reliable states that other party controls switches sides, as we saw in 2016, blue wall was cracked due to red wave.

I wouldn't call 2016 a red wave.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #76 on: June 14, 2020, 09:17:34 PM »

If Biden was actually only down 2 in Arkansas, he should be up like 15 in Iowa and like 27 nationally. Clearly those aren't the numbers we're seeing, so needless to say, this poll is an extreme outlier.

Still, just for fun here's what the map might look like if there actually was a 25 point uniform swing from 2016:



Biden: 478
Trump: 60

Note Nebraska (statewide) would be almost exactly tied here, but I'm assuming most of the third party vote goes to Biden, giving him the edge.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #77 on: June 14, 2020, 09:24:42 PM »

If Biden was actually only down 2 in Arkansas, he should be up like 15 in Iowa and like 27 nationally. Clearly those aren't the numbers we're seeing, so needless to say, this poll is an extreme outlier.

Still, just for fun here's what the map might look like if there actually was a 25 point uniform swing from 2016:



Biden: 478
Trump: 60

Note Nebraska (statewide) would be almost exactly tied here, but I'm assuming most of the third party vote goes to Biden, giving him the edge.

Best part of this is Biden would be taking something like 103% of the vote in Washington DC, with Trump around -8%.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #78 on: June 14, 2020, 09:42:37 PM »

If Biden was actually only down 2 in Arkansas, he should be up like 15 in Iowa and like 27 nationally. Clearly those aren't the numbers we're seeing, so needless to say, this poll is an extreme outlier.

Still, just for fun here's what the map might look like if there actually was a 25 point uniform swing from 2016:



Biden: 478
Trump: 60

Note Nebraska (statewide) would be almost exactly tied here, but I'm assuming most of the third party vote goes to Biden, giving him the edge.

NUT
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #79 on: June 15, 2020, 07:04:30 AM »

Strange things happen in wave elections -- like Ronald Reagan winning Massachusetts in 1980. Or did Carter lose it?  Or did Anderson take enough votes away from Carter...

The Republican Party has done extremely well in the Mountain and Deep South by exploiting identity politics... but at some point the question arises among voters: "What have you done for me?"

This poll is likely an outlier, but I have also noticed shaky approval numbers for the President in Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri -- and especially Texas.

In 2016 the evidence of Trump's eventual win appeared as seeming outliers. No, Trump couldn't possibly be ahead in Michigan or Minnesota.  Arkansas obviously will not decide the 2006 Presidential election; there was only one election in which it could have made a difference, and that was 2000. 
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Orwell
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« Reply #80 on: June 15, 2020, 08:18:54 AM »

This makes sense if they polled all the now deceased Yellow Dog Democrats who voted for Clinton in 1992.

Damn DemoRATS getting dead people to vote for KKKklinton
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BigVic
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« Reply #81 on: June 15, 2020, 08:25:33 AM »

It’s a (Very) safe R state
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BobbieMac
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« Reply #82 on: June 15, 2020, 11:52:45 AM »

Polls in 2016 were showing Trump barely winning SC.  There all junk and if you believe the result will be anything like this in 11/3 your a moron.

Polls from September - October 2016 had SC as +4, 11, 13 and 15, compared to the actual result of +14, which isnt too bad. That was much further into the election though.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #83 on: June 15, 2020, 06:55:07 PM »

This poll is likely an outlier, but I have also noticed shaky approval numbers for the President in Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri -- and especially Texas. 
Good to see I'm not the only one who has noticed this. I've also noticed that Iowa occasionally even has lower approval numbers than the Big Three of PA/MI/WI (see Morning Consult, September and October 2019). The polls showing Iowa as a tossup for both President and Senate are no surprise to me at all, especially considering that the state recently regained its Dem registration advantage.

Those oddly culturally liberal rural areas in the east of the state combined with the increasingly strong influence of Des Moines (rapidly growing + solidly Dem city) should keep the state at least somewhat swingy for a while, certainly more than Ohio at least.
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #84 on: November 27, 2020, 08:20:53 PM »

...

The highlight of the 2020 polling cycle.
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