AR-Hendrix: Trump +2

[ProgressiveModerate]

LOL. No.

[Left Wing]

I doubt this poll is good, but I'm very disappointed that Democrats haven't candidate for Senate here

Pretty much every Democrat is going to vote for Whitfield though.

[Sirius_]

https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1272189409329328128

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

absolute junk poll though it is worth noting they were pretty close in 2016

[2016]

absolute junk poll though it is worth noting they were pretty close in 2016

It's not a junk Poll, not if Trumps JA is at 39 % Nationally as Gallup claims.

Trump will lose 2020 like Dukakis lost in 1988 if this continues.

[Tartarus Sauce]

First thought on seeing headline:

"Eh, I'm sure it's like 35-33 with a boatload of "undecided" Trump supporters."

Sees 47-45:

"OK, it's just junk. Hendrix needs to get out of polling."

Arkansas margin since 2004:

2004: Bush +10
2008: McCain +20
2012: Romney +24
2016: Trump +27

Even getting that back to McCain numbers would be a massive swing and would, really, not fit at all with what we know about Arkansas, which, frankly, is probably the best state in America for the Trumpist model, or at least one of the top 5. Arkansas is basically the last place I'd expect to have a real Dem swing.

Shifts in Pulaski County and the northwest corner would be enough to get Arkansas back to a McCain margin for the Democrats.

But this poll is obviously junk.

[President Johnson]

Complete trash. What year is this? 2000? Trump will get over 60% in Arkansas.

[2016]

Complete trash. What year is this? 2000? Trump will get over 60% in Arkansas.

No he won't especially if his JA is in the Mid 30ties Nationally in late October.

GWB had a 27 % JA Rating per CNN Exits Nationally on E-DAY 2008. I can easily can see this happening with Trump.

[libertpaulian]

Complete trash. What year is this? 2000? Trump will get over 60% in Arkansas.

No he won't especially if his JA is in the Mid 30ties Nationally in late October.

GWB had a 27 % JA Rating per CNN Exits Nationally on E-DAY 2008. I can easily can see this happening with Trump.

Who are you and what have you done with 2016?!

[2016]

Complete trash. What year is this? 2000? Trump will get over 60% in Arkansas.

No he won't especially if his JA is in the Mid 30ties Nationally in late October.

GWB had a 27 % JA Rating per CNN Exits Nationally on E-DAY 2008. I can easily can see this happening with Trump.

Who are you and what have you done with 2016?!

I am 2016. I've given up!

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I doubt this poll is good, but I'm very disappointed that Democrats haven't candidate for Senate here

The crazy thing is that 12 years ago, Republicans didn’t bother to field a candidate for this seat.

[new_patomic]

I think she may have deleted this tweet, but this was the Trump campaign's senior legal adviser

[Senator-elect Spark]

That's a joke right

[GeorgiaModerate]

That's a joke right

No.  But it's a lousy poll; text-to-web with apparently no education weighting.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1272272441902018567https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1272275472446038016
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1272279021687095300
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1272279505504276482

[2016]

I disagree with Nate Cohn here. If Trumps Job Approval is only 39 % Nationally like Gallup claims it is Arkansas is a single digit to low double digit State. Of Course not Trump + 2 but Trump + 8-11 is my guess.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This could be true in like one out of every 1,000 alternate universes.

[here2view]

This makes sense if they polled all the now deceased Yellow Dog Democrats who voted for Clinton in 1992.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

#trendsareNOTreal

Arkansas bluer than Georgia

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This makes sense if they polled all the now deceased Yellow Dog Democrats who voted for Clinton in 1992.

This is what Biden meant when he argued for putting electability over political principle. Only he was prepared to use the dark art of necromancy to bring old souls to the polls. Marianne Williamson tried to warn us...

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I disagree with Nate Cohn here. If Trumps Job Approval is only 39 % Nationally like Gallup claims it is Arkansas is a single digit to low double digit State. Of Course not Trump + 2 but Trump + 8-11 is my guess.

Doubtful. Arkansas has been immune to every Democratic wave from 2008 (swing to McCain) to 2012 to 2018. It’s unlikely to be any closer than 20 points at best for Biden

[Skunk]

Alright it's time to break out the old Jeb! map and put Biden on it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I dont see why this is a surprise. Even WWC whites want stimulus checks just as much as urban African Americans and Latinos. Most WC whites and minorities work in manufacturing and they were laid off during the COVID 19. Trump needs to pass more stimulus checks that Pelosi passed, it's the tax payers money not the Treasury money

That's why Espy is only 8 pts down in red state MS

[NOVA Green]

Alright it's time to break out the old Jeb! map and put Biden on it.

This map is clearly off...

Even if Trump were to shoot someone on 6th Ave in NYC in broad daylight, got caught in bed with a live boy or a dead girl, it is doubtful that Biden would automatically sweep all (50) States....   

Would imagine even in those scenarios he might have a chance of at least winning ID, WY, OK or possibly even AL/MS....

This poll does seem a bit of a stretch, despite the 2016 GE numbers from shortly before the election, which were relatively accurate, although no doubt that Trump's JA numbers are taking a hit in Arkansas, just like everywhere else...

Even if White Evangelical Christians and Seniors are souring on him, not totally seeing the math here (although sure in theory some of these shifts might be coming from Metro Little Rock and NW Arkansas)....

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a blue wave, reliable states that other party controls switches sides, as we saw in 2016, blue wall was cracked due to red wave.