Eisenhower Drops-Out in 1956- Nixon vs. Harriman

[PBrunsel]

Heeding the advice of his brother Milton to, “leave the office with dignity as a respected elder statesman,” President Dwight David Eisenhower drops out of the 1956 Presidential Election, citing heart problems as his main reason. It is expected he will endorse Vice-President Nixon for the 1956 Republican Nomination, but he does not. He leaves the choice to, “The wisdom of Republican voters.” Massachusetts Governor Christian Herter, former Minnesota Governor Harold Stassen, and New Jersey Senator Clifford Case all enter the GOP Primary. Nixon and Herter battle it out through the entire primary, but Vice-President Nixon is able to win the nomination on the first ballot. The delegates select Herter as Nixon’s running-mate.

The Democrats taste victory in 1956 with the popular Eisenhower out of the running. The front-runners for the Democratic nomination are former Illinois Governor and 1952 nominee Adlai “Egghead” Stevenson, Senator Estes Kefauver of Tennessee, and Governor Averill Harriman of New York. Harriman secures the support of former President Truman, and wins the crucial New Hampshire Primary. Harriman consistently leads or ties Nixon in most Gallup Polls, and manages to defeat Stevenson and Kefauver in a pricey and bruising primary. After being nominated on the Third Ballot, Harriman selects Senator Stuart Symington of Missouri as his running-mate.

Does Vice-President Nixon use the popularity of Eisenhower and the current steady economy to secure another four years of Republican rule? Can Harriman capitalize on a public mistrust of Nixon to win the White House back for the New Deal? 

[Mr. Paleoconservative]

Estes Kefauver might have had a chance, but without him, and Eisenhower campaigning for the ticket, Nixon wins in a runaway with the west, southwest, midwest, border-south, and chunks of the North East such as NJ, NH, CT, MA, and PA.  In '56 Nixon's leadership was praised because of his handling of Eisenhower's heart attack, and a number of other crises. This, combined with the economic and diplomatic gains of the first Eisenhower administration would sail Nixon to the White House at the age of 43 (44 by the time he is sworn in).

[Lincoln Republican]

The Democrats had been in power 1933-1953, 20 years, having won the presidential elections of 1932, 1936, 1940, 1944, 1948.

The very popular General Dwight Eisenhower had just been elected in 1952.  With Eisenhower dropping out of the 1956 race due to health concerns, with the economy going strong, as it was in 1956, and with Vice President Nixon promising to build on the Eisenhower/Nixon record, Richard Nixon, 43, would have won a convincing victory over Averell Harriman, 65, in the 1956 election.

It is very unlikely the voters would have turfed out the Republican administration after just one term, after 20 previous years of Democratic administrations.

Even in 1956, at age 43, Richard Nixon was well experienced, a Congressman, a Senator, Vice President for four years, and had a reputation as a strong leader who would stand up to Communism, which, in 1956, was a definite asset.  Even in 1956, I believe, Nixon would have been seen by the electorate as "up to the task" of becoming President.   

Both of your Vice Presidential candidates, by the way, Christian Herter and Stuart Symington, are impressive, and are excellent picks.

Nixon would not likely have received the 457 electoral votes that Eisenhower got in 1956, however, I believe Nixon would have received anywhere in the high 300's to the low 400's.

This scenario, of course, with Nixon elected as President in 1956, would prove extremely interesting in 1960, with incumbent President Richard Nixon facing Senator John F. Kennedy.  Perhaps, with four successful years in the Presidency, with the economy doing well, with President Nixon known to America as a defender of freedom against Communism, and with the power and prestige of the Presidency behind him, this may have been enough to re-elect Nixon in 1960.  This would have sent Kennedy back to the U.S. Senate. 

Or perhaps, John F. Kennedy would have taken a pass in running in 1960, letting Lyndon B. Johnson go down to defeat instead, and Kennedy would have waited until 1964, when no incumbent was running, and when America would be more likely to change the administration.   

     

[WalterMitty]

jfk would have likely sat out the 1960 race with an incumbent nixon running for a second term.  but what about the other young senator...hubert h. humphrey?

[Lincoln Republican]

Walter, I would agree that your map is accurate.

LBJ and HHH would have been the two main competitors for the Democratic nomination in 1960. They would have battled it out for the 1960 Democratic nomination, to see which of them would carry the Democratic ticket to defeat against incumbent President Nixon.

This would leave the ever shrewd JFK as the clear front runner, and likely winner, of the Democratic nomination in 1964, and the victor against the Republican candidate, Barry Goldwater, in the ensuing election.

It is highly unlikely that the 69 year old Vice President, Christian Herter, would be seeking the GOP nomination in 1964.  If he did, it is even more unlikely that he would be nominated. 

[Lincoln Republican]

Just to throw another wrench into this scenario:

Would the Republicans have nominated Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona in 1964, or, after 8 years of Nixon in the White House, would they have gone for the more moderate Governor William Scranton of Pennsylvania?

Then, in 1964, there would have been a JFK v Scranton contest.

Just speculating.