What does VA-05 look like now?

[Lognog]

is it competitive with Bob Good as the nominee, or is it going to be just as much of a waste of time and money as it was before for democrats

[new_patomic]

It is more competitive than it was.

It is still, at a minimum, Lean-R.

[Suburbia]

Lean R.

But a Democrat will win this seat in 2022

[Lognog]

Lean R.

But a Democrat will win this seat in 2022

I think it just depends on how they draw the districts in 2022. The whole VA map will be completely changed like PA in 2018

[lfromnj]

Corey Stewart won this seat lol.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Corey Stewart won this seat lol.

Bob Good is an incompetent campaigner. That could severely hurt him if he doesn't step up his game.

[voice_of_resistance]

Plus there are a non-insignificant amount of voters who will be Riggleman/Democrat since Bob Good is pretty much Virgil Goode/Steve King levels of insane.

[Skunk]

Likely R barring a massive Riggleman write-in campaign or independent candidacy, and both of those are wishful thinking anyway.

[We Live in Black and White]

I'm going to go in on Lean R on account of two factors: Trump's accelerating political collapse, and Boob God's incompetence as a campaigner/apparent criminal activity.

[ponderosa peen 🌲]

Still like Cameroon.

[Lognog]

Corey Stewart won this seat lol.

Bob Good is an incompetent campaigner. That could severely hurt him if he doesn't step up his game.

this. He didn't win the nomination on his own merit. There are enough college voters, NOVAn's to really be turned off by this much cultural conservatism

[lfromnj]

Corey Stewart won this seat lol.

Bob Good is an incompetent campaigner. That could severely hurt him if he doesn't step up his game.

this. He didn't win the nomination on his own merit. There are enough college voters, NOVAn's to really be turned off by this much cultural conservatism

Explain to me these college voters turned off by Bob Good but also Corey Stewart supporters?

[DINGO Joe]

Corey Stewart won this seat lol.

It was 50.3-48.0, so it doesn't take much of a population shift to make that up.

[voice_of_resistance]

Plus many Republicans who aren't insane may not vote at the turnout levels they need to.

[wesmoorenerd]

It's worth noting that all four Democratic challengers here are actually quite good--probably one of the best primary fields I've seen for such a red district. They all massively outraised Good, too--Russo outraised him 7:1 last quarter, and Huffstetler and Webb outraised him by around 6:1. Even Lesinski, whose fundraising has been at the bottom of the pack, still outraised him 3:1.

[Former President tack50]

Likely R

It is not impossible for Dems to win this district but it is still unlikely. Probably just becomes the new version of IA-04 though

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

this could be a sleeper upset in November. Bob Good is a bad GE candidate.

[VPH]

Lean R with RD Huffstetler as the nominee. Likely R with anybody else.

[Lognog]

Corey Stewart won this seat lol.

Bob Good is an incompetent campaigner. That could severely hurt him if he doesn't step up his game.

this. He didn't win the nomination on his own merit. There are enough college voters, NOVAn's to really be turned off by this much cultural conservatism

Explain to me these college voters turned off by Bob Good but also Corey Stewart supporters?

more of negative partisanship turning out college students than persuasion

[lfromnj]

Corey Stewart won this seat lol.

Bob Good is an incompetent campaigner. That could severely hurt him if he doesn't step up his game.

this. He didn't win the nomination on his own merit. There are enough college voters, NOVAn's to really be turned off by this much cultural conservatism

Explain to me these college voters turned off by Bob Good but also Corey Stewart supporters?

more of negative partisanship turning out college students than persuasion

And why weren't college students turned out in 2018?
For example Albemarle had 56.7k votes in 2016 and 53.3k in 2018, this was the most D county in the district besides the independent city of Charlottesville.

Campbell county is the most GOP county in the district and had 27.5k in 2016 and 21.9k in 2018. The missing voters aren't Democrats besides a few rural blacks which are cancelled out by the missing whites in the same county, so not only do you need to swing a few people who voteed for Corey Stewart in 2018, you need to swing a lot of missing Trump voters who didn't bother to turnout in 2020, the only good news for Democrats is that Charlottesville and Albemarle grew by enough to probably net D's a 1000 votes.

[Lognog]

Corey Stewart won this seat lol.

Bob Good is an incompetent campaigner. That could severely hurt him if he doesn't step up his game.

this. He didn't win the nomination on his own merit. There are enough college voters, NOVAn's to really be turned off by this much cultural conservatism

Explain to me these college voters turned off by Bob Good but also Corey Stewart supporters?

more of negative partisanship turning out college students than persuasion

And why weren't college students turned out in 2018?
For example Albemarle had 56.7k votes in 2016 and 53.3k in 2018, this was the most D county in the district besides the independent city of Charlottesville.

Campbell county is the most GOP county in the district and had 27.5k in 2016 and 21.9k in 2018. The missing voters aren't Democrats besides a few rural blacks which are cancelled out by the missing whites in the same county, so not only do you need to swing a few people who voteed for Corey Stewart in 2018, you need to swing a lot of missing Trump voters who didn't bother to turnout in 2020, the only good news for Democrats is that Charlottesville and Albemarle grew by enough to probably net D's a 1000 votes.

That's fair. I still wouldn't count this race out even if college turnout is maxed out. There are good recruits that have pulled a lot of money into the district.

And The race is filled with many uncertainties: it is unclear weather or not Good will even be on the ballot due to the fact he missed the deadline, possibly forcing him to do a write in campaign. however, it is likely that they extend the deadline to him, but that could also mean they extend it to Riggleman for a possible indy bid. While VA has sore loser laws, it is unclear if losing in a convention instead of a primary prevents someone from running as a third party.

[lfromnj]

Corey Stewart won this seat lol.

Bob Good is an incompetent campaigner. That could severely hurt him if he doesn't step up his game.

this. He didn't win the nomination on his own merit. There are enough college voters, NOVAn's to really be turned off by this much cultural conservatism

Explain to me these college voters turned off by Bob Good but also Corey Stewart supporters?

more of negative partisanship turning out college students than persuasion

And why weren't college students turned out in 2018?
For example Albemarle had 56.7k votes in 2016 and 53.3k in 2018, this was the most D county in the district besides the independent city of Charlottesville.

Campbell county is the most GOP county in the district and had 27.5k in 2016 and 21.9k in 2018. The missing voters aren't Democrats besides a few rural blacks which are cancelled out by the missing whites in the same county, so not only do you need to swing a few people who voteed for Corey Stewart in 2018, you need to swing a lot of missing Trump voters who didn't bother to turnout in 2020, the only good news for Democrats is that Charlottesville and Albemarle grew by enough to probably net D's a 1000 votes.

That's fair. I still wouldn't count this race out even if college turnout is maxed out. There are good recruits that have pulled a lot of money into the district.

And The race is filled with many uncertainties: it is unclear weather or not Good will even be on the ballot due to the fact he missed the deadline, possibly forcing him to do a write in campaign. however, it is likely that they extend the deadline to him, but that could also mean they extend it to Riggleman for a possible indy bid. While VA has sore loser laws, it is unclear if losing in a convention instead of a primary prevents someone from running as a third party.

The signature stuff will probably be extended because of COVID anyway and I don't think Riggleman runs 3rd party. If that happens I can consider moving it away from Safe R.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Safe R -> Likely R.

Riggleman wasn't exactly the best candidate anyway, Good is no more conservative than someone like Mark Meadows or Jim Jordan, and this is a very Republican district.

[DaWN]

Safe R -> Likely R.

Riggleman wasn't exactly the best candidate anyway, Good is no more conservative than someone like Mark Meadows or Jim Jordan, and this is a very Republican district.

Yes, we're seeing some very bad Atlas takes about this race. If Cory Stewart wasn't beyond the pale for this district, why on earth would Random No-Name Conservative Nutjob be? Even Likely R is astoundingly generous if you ask me.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It still looks like Cameroon too me. It's seems suspiciously simillar.