IA (Selzer)- Greenfield +3

[Yoda]

Take a bow, PPP.

[Xing]

I’ll want to see their presidential numbers to see how her numbers compare to Trump’s, but even given the D bias in IA polls, it’s hard not to see this poll (which tends to be more accurate) as terrible for Ernst. Obviously her numbers could improve between now and November, but I never bought her being a great candidate or “the next Grassley.” She basically got very lucky in 2014 to run against a terrible opponent in a great year for her party in a state that’s trending Republican. If I had to guess, I think the R trend in IA saves her and she wins narrowly, but a blue wave realistically could knock her out, especially if she’s underperforming Trump. Back from Likely R to Lean R for now.

[politicallefty]

If there's one poll to believe in Iowa, it's Ann Selzer's. It also corroborates a number of other polls. There's something going on in this race.

[The Mikado]

Lean R->Tilt R.

Also, LOL if it turns out Ernst is underperforming Trump when the Presidential numbers come out.

[Brittain33]

Joni Ernst has looked like this cycle's Kay Hagan for some time. I'm not surprised.

[We Live in Black and White]

And from the gold standard of Iowa polling, too!

[DINGO Joe]

We should wait until the OANN/Gravis poll comes out.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Oof the 2026 map will be terrible for us.

[S019]

Now, where are the people who said this was likely R bodering safe R due to Ernst being a Strong Incumbent^TM?

I'm willing to argue it was at the beginning of the cycle, but Ernst is blowing this race, and if Republicans are actually losing the NPV by 12 or 13 in November, I'd expect this seat to be hotly contested. Also Iowa is definitely a state that would wildly swing to the Democrats in a landslide, given its elasticity. It's kind of baffling to me how she's suddenly collapsed, but I guess national Democrats were on to something when they said they saw opportunity in this seat. Anyways, my guess is Ernst would win by 1 or 2 at the end of the day, but this race is now clearly a tossup, which is terrible news for Senate Republicans' hopes of holding the chamber (they need to win this seat and by a somewhat sizable margin to have any hopes of keeping the majority, especially given the partisan leans and demographics of the other battlegrounds (such as NC, GA, and AZ)).

[WD]

Yikes, RIP GOP Senate Majority if this holds up

[MT Treasurer]

This election would basically result in a 1980-style Democratic blowout if it were held today, and I don’t think anyone ever denied that a seat like this could/would become competitive in an environment this favorable to Democrats. If you’re inclined to believe that Republicans can close the gap at least slightly before election day (i.e., a result closer to a 1992-type defeat rather than 1980), they can definitely still hold the seat, but literally no one is arguing that this isn’t bad news for Ernst. Also, broken clock and all, but this is a state where polling has underestimated Republican strength in recent elections, including Selzer's final IA-GOV 2018 poll which had Hubbell ahead by 2.

Needless to say, even a narrow Republican hold/close race in IA would point to a Democratic wave election, and the idea that Ernst is far more vulnerable than "stronger incumbents" like Perdue, Daines, or Cornyn is laughable.

We really need an AL-SEN poll, btw. I don’t buy that Jones is DOA, especially in this environment.

[Ferguson97]

Not buying it

Why?

[DINGO Joe]

This election would basically result in a 1980-style Democratic blowout if it were held today, and I don’t think anyone ever denied that a seat like this could/would become competitive in an environment this favorable to Democrats. If you’re inclined to believe that Republicans can close the gap at least slightly before election day (i.e., a result closer to a 1992-type defeat rather than 1980), they can definitely still hold the seat, but literally no one is arguing that this isn’t bad news for Ernst. Also, broken clock and all, but this is a state where polling has underestimated Republican strength in recent elections, including Selzer's final IA-GOV 2018 poll which had Hubbell ahead by 2.

Needless to say, even a narrow Republican hold/close race in IA would point to a Democratic wave election, and the idea that Ernst is far more vulnerable than "stronger incumbents" like Perdue, Daines, or Cornyn is laughable.

We really need an AL-SEN poll, btw. I don’t buy that Jones is DOA, especially in this environment.

Oh c'mon, it's Alabama

[pppolitics]

So the unstoppable titan Ernst isn't so unstoppable after all.

[S019]

Not buying it

Why?

Because he's a Republican hack, who would insist that they would pick up 12 Senate seats in if the NPV was like D+18. Just put him on ignore, I did it a while back, and it improved my forum experience (also please don't respond to him, because then he responds to everyone who responds to him, and then derails the thread).

[clever but short]

I'm kicking myself that I can't say "I told you so" because I kept my hunch about this race to myself.

[WD]

If Ernst does end up loosing, how many seats would Dems get?

[S019]

If Ernst does end up loosing, how many seats would Dems get?

My guess is that CO, AZ, NC have fallen for sure, both GA seats, MT and ME also probably fell, and one of KS/TX also went D at that point.

[lfromnj]

If there's one poll to believe in Iowa, it's Ann Selzer's. It also corroborates a number of other polls. There's something going on in this race.

FWIW Selzer is still the best poll in Iowa as shown by the 2016 presidential numbers  although the 2018 numbers were a moderate bit off(not majorly just Hubbel +2 instead of Reynolds +3)

I will go with PTU for RN.

[Roll Roons]

If Ernst does end up loosing, how many seats would Dems get?

At least 53. AL, CO, AZ, NC, ME, MT and GA regular would flip before this.

[Stockdale for Veep]

At least the impending Depression bread lines will provide plenty of bread bags.

[progressive85]

Maybe Hillary was just a really bad fit for Iowa.  Maybe it's not really a deep red state so Theresa Greenfield has a real chance.  It's a top race anyway so no one can count Theresa out.

[Tender Branson]

If Greenfield is up by 3, then the presidential race is ca. Biden+1 or a tie.

Biden is probably doing a few points worse than her.

IA = tossup.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Maybe Hillary was just a really bad fit for Iowa.  Maybe it's not really a deep red state so Theresa Greenfield has a real chance.  It's a top race anyway so no one can count Theresa out.

Hilary was a bad fit, for IA, so were Warren and Harris. Buttigieg and Bernie won IA for nomination

But Chuck Grassley ran against Patty Judge as his opponent. That's why Hilary lost so badly in 2016

[Figueira]

Oof the 2026 map will be terrible for us.

How? Democrats have a higher chance of defending an incumbent Greenfield than beating an entrenched Ernst?