MO-Remington/MO Scout: Trump +8
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  MO-Remington/MO Scout: Trump +8
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Author Topic: MO-Remington/MO Scout: Trump +8  (Read 2188 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: June 13, 2020, 09:15:25 AM »

Missouri: Remington Research, June 10-11, 1152 LV

Trump 51
Biden 43
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #1 on: June 13, 2020, 09:16:11 AM »

Pollster background, GM? Good? Bad? Somewhere in between?
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #2 on: June 13, 2020, 09:20:28 AM »

For context, Trump won MO by 18,6%-points in 2016, so this is in line with recent polls having Biden up by double digits.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #3 on: June 13, 2020, 09:23:49 AM »

Pollster background, GM? Good? Bad? Somewhere in between?

Not that good; 538 gives them a C-.  They do mostly, if not exclusively, IVR polling.  They don't have an education breakdown in the crosstabs, so I assume they're not weighting by education.
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Skye
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« Reply #4 on: June 13, 2020, 09:24:59 AM »

Pollster background, GM? Good? Bad? Somewhere in between?

It's Remington. They're not overtly terrible but there are worse pollsters. 538 rates them as C-.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: June 13, 2020, 09:29:21 AM »

If MO is back to 2008/2012 levels, Trump is in serious trouble ...

WeAskAmerica was Trump+4, so +6 on average in recent polls.
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Astatine
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« Reply #6 on: June 13, 2020, 09:33:41 AM »

Remington conduct R internals and they constantly had McCaskill trailing Hawley in 2018 in (almost) all polls.

Their numbers for the Governors' race are more interesting imho. Galloway trailing by 8 points (she trailed by 11-13 pts. in all Remington polls conducted so far) could actually mean that this race is getting closer.
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Person Man
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« Reply #7 on: June 13, 2020, 10:37:29 AM »

I believe it.
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Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
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« Reply #8 on: June 13, 2020, 10:52:58 AM »

Safe R
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Darthpi Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #9 on: June 13, 2020, 11:34:37 AM »

Consistent with the national leads we've seen for Biden lately.
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Annatar
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« Reply #10 on: June 13, 2020, 11:42:19 AM »

Interesting to compare this poll to where Remington had the race in MO in 2016, in a poll it did on August 5-6 it had Trump leading Clinton 44-42, even as late as October 9-11, Remington only had Trump leading Clinton 47-42 in MO, we will see whether the long term trend of Republican and Democratic candidates outperforming their polls in deep blue and red states holds up this year.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #11 on: June 13, 2020, 12:18:50 PM »

So is Missouri going to vote to the right of Kansas?

The state has drifted far far away from when it was the bellwether state.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: June 13, 2020, 01:23:01 PM »

MO isnt targetted anyways, but it does tell you it's not gonna be a huge landslide as polls have showed 10 and 15 pt leads for Biden. I want to see the Selzer poll in IA before I really think it's a 278 or 413 election
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #13 on: June 13, 2020, 05:50:38 PM »

Missouri is gone for the Democratic Party, that's nothing new. This poll seems more realistic than the one that had Trump up by only four points. But for this state to still be within ten points bodes pretty badly for Idiot Amin.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #14 on: June 13, 2020, 06:28:00 PM »

Missouri is gone for the Democratic Party, that's nothing new. This poll seems more realistic than the one that had Trump up by only four points. But for this state to still be within ten points bodes pretty badly for Idiot Amin.

At this point, Kansas is probably more likely to flip than Missouri.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #15 on: June 13, 2020, 07:26:00 PM »

So is Missouri going to vote to the right of Kansas?

More likely with every passing election. If it doesn't happen this year, it will in 2022 (especially if Galloway somehow manages to win).
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Sbane
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« Reply #16 on: June 13, 2020, 08:35:28 PM »

Even if it ends up being 55-43 in the end, that is horrible news for Trump. Missouri is the sort of state he should be putting up big numbers in.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: June 13, 2020, 10:38:20 PM »

This saves the Dems from spending money in MO to somehow think Nicole Galloway may win and she wont. Dems arent winning MO
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: June 14, 2020, 12:57:22 AM »

Strong R bias in result, but not so strong that one can expect Missouri to go D this year.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #19 on: June 14, 2020, 12:58:04 PM »

So is Missouri going to vote to the right of Kansas?

More likely with every passing election. If it doesn't happen this year, it will in 2022 (especially if Galloway somehow manages to win).

Is it just that suburbanites are a bigger share of the population in KS than in MO?
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #20 on: June 14, 2020, 01:13:16 PM »

So is Missouri going to vote to the right of Kansas?

More likely with every passing election. If it doesn't happen this year, it will in 2022 (especially if Galloway somehow manages to win).

Is it just that suburbanites are a bigger share of the population in KS than in MO?

Yes. Particularly notable is the 15-point swing of Johnson County, KS from 2012 to 2016. Romney +17 to Trump +2.

That + Democrats have been almost completely shut out of rural Missouri, particularly since 2014.

This is what a Missouri Dem maxout looked like in 2008 (Nixon +21 for governor):

And this is what it looked like ten years later (Galloway +6 for state auditor):
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #21 on: June 14, 2020, 01:16:00 PM »

New Poll: Missouri President by Remington Research Group on 2020-06-11

Summary: D: 43%, R: 51%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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jimmie
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« Reply #22 on: June 15, 2020, 05:43:07 AM »

No.
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