Which Montana Democrat has a better chance of winning?

[President Johnson]

Steve Bullock or Mike Cooney, who is more likely to win their election in November? Bullock is the stronger challenger I'd say, while Gianforte is weaker than Daines. I'd say their chances of winning are about the same, both 50/50. Obviously, I want both FFs to win. Thoughts?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bullock of course, but since Biden is leading so substantially, both can win

[Not Me, Us]

Bullock, and it isn't close.

[KaiserDave]

Bullock, and it isn't close.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I would have said Bullock prior to the primary, but Republicans nominated Gianforte for Governor so I would say Cooney now.

[S019]

Probably Bullock

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Scrappy Steve.

[Galeel]

Cooney. More partisanship in federal elections than state elections.

[TDAS04]

Bullock

[Mexican Wolf]

Cooney. More partisanship in federal elections than state elections.

This, plus Daines has an incumbency advantage that Gianforte lacks, and he doesn't have the same level of controversial baggage that Gianforte still has. (Whether that baggage will cost Greg the governorship, though, remains to be seen.)

[Mr. Smith]

Cooney.

[MT Treasurer]

Cooney. More partisanship in federal elections than state elections.

The thing is, Bullock and Tester won their high-profile statewide races by identical margins and MT has elected only three Republican Senators since the ratification of the 17th Amendment (and Daines happens to be the only one who hasn’t lost reelection yet).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We havent any MT polls lately, they need to poll it again

[MT Treasurer]

Gianforte and Rs are going hard after Cooney for being a political insider for decades, which is probably Cooney's biggest vulnerability in this race. We often tend to mock/overuse these analogies, but I will say that their last anti-Cooney ad was eerily similar to some of the ads ran against Nelson in 2018, and it should be noted that Cooney's political career began at around the same time as Nelson's in the early 1970s. I wouldn’t underestimate how powerful this line of attack can be (this was a big part of why Nelson lost in 2018), and Cooney's weak showing in the Democratic primary shows that there’s still some work to be done on this front. His team needs to do a better job introducing their candidate to voters without playing into Gianforte's attacks that he hasn’t kept up with the times/has been a taxing bureaucrat even before your mom was born/etc.

I think Gianforte has done a better job than Daines in general so far. Yes, he is more "controversial" than Daines, but I really don’t think that he’s an easier opponent to run against, and I’d trust Gianforte to go for the jugular much sooner than I’d trust Daines, who’s honestly easier to define if you’re a Democratic political operative and never really had to run a genuinely competitive race. More so than in 2016, Gianforte's campaign has been consistent and hasn’t strayed from its main message: job creator and tested businessman with an optimistic vision for the state taking on the entire Helena establishment. I think that kind of consistency is missing from Daines' campaign, which (not unlike Fox's campaign) sometimes feels like it was designed with the purpose of pandering to everyone at the same time with some weird combination of anti-socialist crusader, Trump lackey, true moderate willing to work across the aisle, "outsider" bringing his private-sector experience to Washington, "traditional" Republican running on """Montana values""", etc. The thing is, Daines can introduce his bipartisan bills until the cows come home, but it’s probably not going to resonate all that much as long as his campaign lacks any catchy and consistent overall message. Messaging is such an essential component of any successful campaign in Montana, and I have a feeling that Bullock, Tester, and Gianforte understand this better than Daines, who sometimes acts like a lobbyist who thinks you’ve read every page of his bills. Is Gianforte more polarizing and less "bipartisan" than Daines? Yes, but that doesn’t necessarily make him weaker in a general election, especially when he’s now had the benefit of having to navigate close races and Daines is having a hard time introducing himself amid Democratic attack ads, Bullock dominating media coverage, and traditional campaigning being off the table. If you ask me, Cooney is going to have a harder time defining his opponent effectively, and there really isn’t much new stuff you can hit Gianforte with. Fox went hard negative on him (especially in the closing weeks of the campaign) and got absolutely crushed. Yes, primaries aren’t general elections, but even "unelectable" candidates don’t win a R primary for such a high-profile office by this margin in MT.

Don’t get me wrong, these candidates have been working together for years and there’s going to be a lot of coordination + not that much split-ticket voting here, but in a very close race, these things matter a lot. If Gianforte and Bullock both win, I think this will be a big part of it.

[Xing]

Obviously MT populist farmers will reject the elitism and shenanigans of the New Jersey Bodyslammer, but will swoon for Daines’s Inoffensive™ Bipartisan credentials.

[Sir Mohamed]

Cooney. More partisanship in federal elections than state elections.

This, plus Daines has an incumbency advantage that Gianforte lacks, and he doesn't have the same level of controversial baggage that Gianforte still has. (Whether that baggage will cost Greg the governorship, though, remains to be seen.)

Bullock can be seen as having de-facto incumbency, especially with the pandemic giving him the opportunity to appear as a rational leader during a crisis (in stark contrast to the federal govt). That's some parallel to FL-Sen 2018, when Scott got praise of his disaster response during the Hurricane.

To the question, I think chances are the same. National elections are more partisan, but Tester has won as well and Bullock is an A+ recruit. Cooney isn't a super titan, but he can for sure win against NJ carpetbagger and bodyslammer Gianforte.