Senate predictions (June 2020)

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Some users, even Dems think that 2016 or close elections are gonna be there forever. Trump won with the help of Gary Johnson and popular R incumbents like Toomey, Portman, Grassley, Johnson and Rubio running in swing states with 3rd party support to get reelected.  2016 isnt gonna be replicated every cycle

[Annihilation]

Ds gain: IA, AZ, CO, NC, ME and MT
Rs gain: AL
D+5

[SN2903]

D gains: AZ, NC, CO.                                                                           R gains- AL, MI.                D+1

[ProgressiveModerate]

D gains: AZ, NC, CO.                                                                           R gains- AL, MI.                D+1

Ok the first sane prediction from you in a while. I would have to disagree with MI for now, as Trump and James are both polling pretty bad, and Peters is likely gonna take this race more seriously than Stabenow. James hasn't exactly lived up to the hype either.

[MillennialModerate]

No nonsense - reasonable Senate predictions. Ill update monthly along with these threads. But you can take these to the bank - they’re gaining intrest:


Democrat Holds:
Michigan

Democrat Flips:
Arizona • Kelly out performs Biden by high single digits
Colorado • Comfortable win but not a total slam dunk
Maine • (closest race in nation)

Republican Flips:
Alabama • (In a Biden landslide DJ could’ve had punchers (30%) chance if he‘d been more moderate. But... alas)

Republican Holds:
Montana • (second closest race in nation, Daines +1.5)
North Carolina
Georgia • (Biggest fools gold race in nation, at any level)
Georgia S • (Same as regular GA race, could’ve been different if Osoff ran in special)
Iowa • Would be delicious to see Ernst lose; IA isn’t ‘gone’ for Dems but this race goes GOP
Texas • Crop of canidates by Dems was .. BRUTAL and Cornyn is stronger than Cruz
Kentucky • Mitch comfortably; voters like having a majority leader. Plus McGrath is a meh canidate





Primaries:

AL: Tubberville crushes Sessions, except in Tuscaloosa
CO: Hickenlooper - talks of him losing are hype
KY: McGrath wins because.. Kentucky and electability
MA: I’m getting a sinking feeling Markey might pull it off in MA which
would be embarrassing for my state. I hope to be wrong.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Why are we making absolute predictions 5 mnths before an election. Everyone knows IA, GA, MT, KS and NC will give Dems more than 50 seats and arent safe R states. The bottom has fallen out. We should not be concerned about ratings

We know Millenial Moderate you dont believe Dems will extend the map on the Senate, well others do and Solid has given us a good road map to a Supermajority Senate

[TML]

D gains: AZ, NC, CO.                                                                           R gains- AL, MI.                D+1

Ok the first sane prediction from you in a while. I would have to disagree with MI for now, as Trump and James are both polling pretty bad, and Peters is likely gonna take this race more seriously than Stabenow. James hasn't exactly lived up to the hype either.

He’s wearing “rose-colored glasses” when it comes to his preferred candidates.

[woodley park]

Call me a nutjob if you want, but I'm going for broke on a total repudiation of the GOP. My projection assumes Booker becomes the nominee in Kentucky, and Bollier faces Kobach in Kentucky. If not, I'll walk both of those back.

Republicans flip Alabama.

Democrats flip Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Kansas, Georgia, Kentucky, and Montana.

In complete and total payback for the 2014 rout, Democrats have 55 Senate seats come January 2021.

[Astatine]

Call me a nutjob if you want, but I'm going for broke on a total repudiation of the GOP. My projection assumes Booker becomes the nominee in Kentucky, and Bollier faces Kobach in Kentucky. If not, I'll walk both of those back.

Republicans flip Alabama.

Democrats flip Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Kansas, Georgia, Kentucky, and Montana.

In complete and total payback for the 2014 rout, Democrats have 55 Senate seats come January 2021.

Why would Georgia Regular flip and not Georgia Special (If one flips, the other flips too, I'd assume, especially in a nationwide landslide victory for Dems)?

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

To predict MT, KS, GA, IA and NC with 5 months left, is a mistake especially Dems can get a Supermajority to end the legislative filibuster once a for all

[MillennialModerate]

Call me a nutjob if you want, but I'm going for broke on a total repudiation of the GOP. My projection assumes Booker becomes the nominee in Kentucky, and Bollier faces Kobach in Kentucky. If not, I'll walk both of those back.

Republicans flip Alabama.

Democrats flip Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Kansas, Georgia, Kentucky, and Montana.

In complete and total payback for the 2014 rout, Democrats have 55 Senate seats come January 2021.

Why would Georgia Regular flip and not Georgia Special (If one flips, the other flips too, I'd assume, especially in a nationwide landslide victory for Dems)?

Because Special is a Jungle primary and if no one gets 50% which is likely with so many canidates - they’ll be a runoff. If Dems win the White House and have the majority already it’s likely Dem turnout would be depressed

[Red Willow]

Call me a nutjob if you want, but I'm going for broke on a total repudiation of the GOP. My projection assumes Booker becomes the nominee in Kentucky, and Bollier faces Kobach in Kentucky. If not, I'll walk both of those back.

Republicans flip Alabama.

Democrats flip Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Kansas, Georgia, Kentucky, and Montana.

In complete and total payback for the 2014 rout, Democrats have 55 Senate seats come January 2021.

Dems would flip TX long before KY.

[Orser67]

Call me a nutjob if you want, but I'm going for broke on a total repudiation of the GOP. My projection assumes Booker becomes the nominee in Kentucky, and Bollier faces Kobach in Kentucky. If not, I'll walk both of those back.

Republicans flip Alabama.

Democrats flip Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Kansas, Georgia, Kentucky, and Montana.

In complete and total payback for the 2014 rout, Democrats have 55 Senate seats come January 2021.

Why would Georgia Regular flip and not Georgia Special (If one flips, the other flips too, I'd assume, especially in a nationwide landslide victory for Dems)?

The special election is a jungle primary with multiple candidates from both parties, so there's basically a 0% chance of a Dem winning >50% and avoiding a run-off (and there's even a chance that it's an all-GOP run-off). Whereas for the regular election, assuming a good Democratic year, Ossoff has a plausible chance of winning 50%, thereby avoiding a run-off.

It'll be interesting to see exactly how it plays out, but I think the general assumption on this board is that the GOP will have an advantage in the run-off (as compared to the general election held in November), especially if Biden wins the presidency.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Call me a nutjob if you want, but I'm going for broke on a total repudiation of the GOP. My projection assumes Booker becomes the nominee in Kentucky, and Bollier faces Kobach in Kentucky. If not, I'll walk both of those back.

Republicans flip Alabama.

Democrats flip Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Kansas, Georgia, Kentucky, and Montana.

In complete and total payback for the 2014 rout, Democrats have 55 Senate seats come January 2021.

Why would Georgia Regular flip and not Georgia Special (If one flips, the other flips too, I'd assume, especially in a nationwide landslide victory for Dems)?

The special election is a jungle primary with multiple candidates from both parties, so there's basically a 0% chance of a Dem winning >50% and avoiding a run-off (and there's even a chance that it's an all-GOP run-off). Whereas for the regular election, assuming a good Democratic year, Ossoff has a plausible chance of winning 50%, thereby avoiding a run-off.

It'll be interesting to see exactly how it plays out, but I think the general assumption on this board is that the GOP will have an advantage in the run-off (as compared to the general election held in November), especially if Biden wins the presidency.

The chance is only close to 0% assuming leading Democrats stay in the race. I assume the DSCC will be pressuring everyone but Warnock to withdraw soon.

[Heebie Jeebie]

The best predictor of 2020 is 2016, only a few notches to the left.  Therefore, I'm pretty confident that Democrats will pick up CO, ME, AZ, NC, and both GA seats.  They will of course lose AL.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

The best predictor of 2020 is 2016, only a few notches to the left.  Therefore, I'm pretty confident that Democrats will pick up CO, ME, AZ, NC, and both GA seats.  They will of course lose AL.

Nothing is predictable in this environment and Rs may lose MT, KS as well, Bullock is a great candidate and will win

[VAR]

Alabama: Tuberville 56-44 (R flip)
Alaska: Sullivan 51-46
Arizona: Kelly 52-46 (D flip)
Colorado: Hickenlooper 51-44 (D flip)
Georgia: Perdue 51-47
Georgia Special: Collins 32 - Loeffler 17
Iowa: Ernst 50-45
Kansas: Marshall 53-45
Kentucky: McConnell 56-42
Maine: Gideon 50-50 (D flip)
Michigan: Peters 53-47
Montana: Daines 49-48
North Carolina: Tillis 48-47
South Carolina: Graham 52-45

51-49 R

[wesmoorenerd]

Dems gain CO, AZ, ME, NC, IA, MT, GA (regular not special)

GOP gains AL

Net D+6

[ProgressiveModerate]

BTW, it's interesting how the consensus atlas prediction still shows a 48-52 Republican controlled senate:

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

When are we gonna get another MT poll, after the April primaries, they stop polling the state, which last had Bullock leading by 3 to 7 points

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

With a lance to my chest, I'd call IA for Greenfield, leaving my final numbers (though not my ratings) unchanged at 52-48 (swapping out GA-S flipping for IA flipping).

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=29h9

My 8 color map.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Collins can win due to ME 2 and Cook just made MT a tossup and Tillis isnt that conservative

Tilt D AZ, CO, MT
Tossup AK, GA, IA, KS, ME, NC and SC
Tilt R AL, KY and TX

I love Collins and want her back

3 to 7 seats

Dems can win the majority without ME or NC and get to 53 seats to eliminate the filibuster to bypass Sinema and Manchin

[ProgressiveModerate]

Collins can win due to ME 2 and Cook just made MT a tossup and Tillis isnt that conservative

Tilt D AZ, CO, MT
Tossup AK, GA, IA, KS, ME, NC and SC
Tilt R AL, KY and TX

I love Collins and want her back

3 to 7 seats

Dems can win the majority without ME or NC and get to 53 seats to eliminate the filibuster to bypass Sinema and Manchin

Eh Cook isn't very good political forecaster. It took them forever to make AL move from tossup to lean D even though Jones was always at the very least a clear underdog. MT may be tossup, but so is CO.