Senate predictions (June 2020)

[Suburbia]

My Senate predictions as of June 2020:

Democratic Pickups: AZ Spec (Kelly def. McSally), CO (Hickenlooper def. Gardner), NC (Cunningham def. Tillis), MT (Bullock def. Daines), MS (Espy def. Hyde-Smith), KS (Bollier def. Kobach)

Democrats+6

Notable Democratic Holds
MI, NH, MN

Republican Pickups: AL (Tuberville def. Jones)

Republican+1

Notable Republican Holds:
ME, IA, KY, GA1, GA2, AK, SC, TX,

[Astatine]

D -> R flips:

AZ (Kelly +6)
CO (Hickenlooper +8)
ME (Gideon +1)
MT (Bullock +2)
NC (Cunningham +2)

R -> D flips:

AL (Tuberville +13)

Total: D +4, 51 seats

[ProgressiveModerate]

Senate:

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=2826

Don't have time to make a house ma right now, but I think it'll be loser than expected, unless Biden actually does win in a landslide. Ds flp TX-23, the 2 NC districts, GA-7, Mike Garcia and at least one other district, likely a suburban district like MO-2. Rs gain MN-7, NM-2, ME-2,  NY-11, NY-22, OK-5, SC-1, and a few more races will narrow up and maybe flip because of partisanship.

[Suburbia]

D -> R flips:

AZ (Kelly +6)
CO (Hickenlooper +8)
ME (Gideon +1)
MT (Bullock +2)
NC (Cunningham +2)

R -> D flips:

AL (Tuberville +13)

Total: D +4, 51 seats

If that happens, do the Democrats get rid of the fillibuster rule, or whatever it is called? Manchin, Sinema, Warner, Coons will be deciding votes on things like policing reform, etc.

[NewYorkExpress]

My Senate predictions as of June 2020:

Democratic Pickups: AZ Spec (Kelly def. McSally), CO (Hickenlooper def. Gardner), NC (Cunningham def. Tillis), MT (Bullock def. Daines), MS (Espy def. Hyde-Smith), KS (Bollier def. Kobach)

Democrats+6

Notable Democratic Holds
MI, NH, MN

Republican Pickups: AL (Tuberville def. Jones)

Republican+1

Notable Republican Holds:
ME, IA, KY, GA1, GA2, AK, SC, TX,

I've got two problems off the top of my head. One, you have Susan Collins winning, which doesn't add up to me. But worse, you have Mike Espy winning, which tells me this is a junk prediction.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My Senate predictions as of June 2020:

Democratic Pickups: AZ Spec (Kelly def. McSally), CO (Hickenlooper def. Gardner), NC (Cunningham def. Tillis), MT (Bullock def. Daines), MS (Espy def. Hyde-Smith), KS (Bollier def. Kobach)

Democrats+6

Notable Democratic Holds
MI, NH, MN

Republican Pickups: AL (Tuberville def. Jones)

Republican+1

Notable Republican Holds:
ME, IA, KY, GA1, GA2, AK, SC, TX,

I've got two problems off the top of my head. One, you have Susan Collins winning, which doesn't add up to me. But worse, you have Mike Espy winning, which tells me this is a junk prediction.

Agreed MS has too few swing voters, and there aren't enough AAs to overpower white turnout in the state. MS could be high single digits, but it's still statistically safe. ME is hard, I could see anything from Gideon +5 to Collins +12, especially if Collins runs back to the center, since ME has RCV and right wingers who aren't huge fans of her will still put her before Gideon

[Orser67]

I'll say 51D-49R, but MT could really go either way.

Near-locks to flip: CO, (AL)
Dems have a significant advantage: AZ, (MI)
Dems have a slight advantage: ME, NC
Tossup: MT
Plausible pick-ups: GA, IA
Long shots: GA-S, KS, TX, AK

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Dems net AZ, CO, GA, IA, KS, MT, NC
Plausible AL, AK, GA, KY, SC and TX

[coloradocowboi]

Competitive Dem Holds
Michigan: Peters 53-James 46

Competitive GOP Holds
Texas: Cornyn 51-Hegar 47
Iowa: Ernst 50-Greenfield 48
Kentucky: McConnell 52-McGrath 43
Georgia: Perdue 50-Ossoff 48
South Carolina: Graham 52-Harrison 47

Dem pickups
Alaska (darkhorse): Gross 48-Sullivan 47
Montana: Bullock 50-Daines 48
Arizona: Kelly 52-McSally 46
Colorado: Hickenlooper (or Romanoff) 54- Gardner 42 (maybe 43 against Romanoff)
Georgia (special): Collins 41, Warnock 40, Loeffler 11, Lieberman and others 8; Runoff Warnock 51-Collins 49
North Carolina: Cunningham 51-Tillis 48
Maine: Gideon 50-Collins 47

GOP pickups
Alabama: Tuberville 55-Jones 43

Dems pick up 7, lose 1, end with a majority of 53-47.

[voice_of_resistance]

Non-actually competitive D holds:
This is my take on if the election was held today:

New Hampshire: Shaheen 57-43
Michigan: Peters 55-45
Minnesota: Smith 57-40

Actually competitive seats:
Arizona: Kelly 52-47 (FLIP)
Montana: Bullock 51-48 (FLIP)
Colorado: Hickenlooper 55-42 (FLIP)
Georgia II: Perdue 52-47
Georgia III: Warnock 40-Collins 37-Loeffler 15, everyone else 8, Runoff Collins 52-48
North Carolina: Cunningham 52-47 (FLIP)
Maine: Gideon 50-49 (FLIP)
Iowa: Ernst 50-47
Alabama: Tuberville 56-42 (FLIP)

Non-actually competitive R holds:

Alaska: Sullivan 50-46
Kansas: Bollier 50-49 (with Kobach), Marshall 56-41 otherwise
Kentucky: McConnell 57-41
Mississippi: Hyde-Smith 54-44
South Carolina: Graham 52-47
Texas: Cornyn 54-44
West Virginia: Capito 72-26 (I know this is not competitive, but PJS is a literal disaster)

[The Mamdani Virus]

Rating all seats not rated as Safe by all three of Cook, Sabato, and IE

Competitive D-held seats

AL: Tuberville 57-43 over Jones (FLIP)
MI: Peters 52-48 over James
MN: Smith 55-45 over Lewis
NH: Shaheen 56-44 over Bolduc/Messner
NM: Lujan 57-43 over Ronchetti

Competitive R-held seats

AK: Sullivan 53-47 over Gross
AZ: Kelly 54-46 over McSally (FLIP)
CO: Hickenlooper 57-43 over Gardner (FLIP)
GA-R: GE: Ossoff 49-48 over Purdue Runoff: Purdue 50.9-49.1 over Ossoff
GA-S: GE: Warnock and Collins advance (unsure about actual numbers) Runoff: Warnock 50.3-49.7 over Collins (FLIP)
IA: Ernst 53-47 over Greenfield
KS: Kobach 49-47 over Bollier, Marshall/Hamilton 55-45 over Bollier
KY: McConnell 56-44 over McGrath/Booker
ME: Collins 51-49 over Gideon, 51-48 without RCV
MT: Bullock 50.7-49.3 over Daines (FLIP)
NC: Cunningham 52-48 over Tillis (FLIP)
SC: Graham 54-46 over Harrison
TX: Cornyn 52-48 over Hegar

Net: D+4

51-49 D Senate

[Roll Roons]

What I think as things currently stand. Democrats take a 51-49 majority, flipping AZ, CO, ME, MT and NC, while Republicans flip AL.

Republicans win:
AL: Tuberville +14
AK: Sullivan +6
AR: Cotton +40
GA regular: Perdue +3, no runoff
GA special: Collins +2 after runoff with him and Warnock
ID: Risch +25
IA: Ernst +3
KS: Marshall +10 (Bollier +1 if Kobach)
KY: Mitch +10
LA: Cassidy +20
MS: Hyde-Smith +10
NE: Sasse +30
OK: Inhofe +30
SC: Graham +10
SD: Rounds +25
TN: Hagerty +25
TX: Cornyn +10
WV: Capito +40
WY: Lummis +40

Democrats win:
AZ: Kelly +8
CO: Hick +12
DE: Coons +16
IL: Durbin +18
ME: Gideon +4
MA: Kennedy +35
MI: Peters +8
MN: Smith +12
MT: Bullock +1
NH: Shaheen +10
NJ: Booker +16
NM: Lujan +14
NC: Cunningham +4
OR: Merkley +20
RI: Reed +35
VA: Warner +16

[MT Treasurer]

D.C. = GA-S

In a true election night drama, both GA seats + Senate control are decided by a runoff in January 2021, which results in the GOP holding both races by the skin of their teeth, in part because (a) just enough third-party voters break their way, and (b) Democratic turnout is slightly depressed after Trump's loss.

R - 51
D - 49

Flips: AL, CO, AZ, MT (Please note that I’m not at all confident about some of the green/Lean states.)

[Ferguson97]

D-->R:

Alabama (Tuberville)

R-->D:

Maine (Gideon)
Colorado (Hickenlooper)
Arizona (Kelly)
Montana (Bullock)
North Carolina (Cunningham)
Georgia (Ossoff)

Also, JK3 will beat Merkley in the primary.

[Water Hazard]

Ranked by likelihood:

DE/MA/NJ/RI/OR
VA
NM
NH
MN
CO
MI
AZ-S
NC
ME
---- Senate Control
MT
GA-S
GA
IA
TX
AK/AL/KS/KY/SC
ID/LA/MS/NE/OK/SD/TN/WV/WY
AR

Some of the differences in ranking are pretty negligible. Right now, I don't think there are any tossups, and I see a widening gap between the races I have in red vs blue here.

[andjey]

D gain: (from most likely to least): AZ, CO, MT, NC, ME, one of KS/GA/GA-s
R gain: AL

D+5

Democrats: 52 (+5)
Republicans: 48 (-5)

[President Johnson]

D gain: (from most likely to least): AZ, CO, MT, NC, ME, one of KS/GA/GA-s
R gain: AL

D+5

Democrats: 52 (+5)
Republicans: 48 (-5)

This. But my money would be on Ossoff rather than Bollier. KKKobach can very well lose, but I would still rate this Lean Republican with him.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Once they start polling MT, KS, IA on a regular basis we can definitely know the deal. The Senate is gone as of now AZ, CO, ME and NC will flip

[windjammer]

Seriously if Trymp gets defeated by a 10 point margin, there is no way the senate doesn't flip.

[windjammer]

And as for my prediction: D+4

Democrats pick up NC, ME, CO and AZ + an another one (MT, GA, IA, AK,...)

[Former President tack50]

I will go with a very depressing prediction of D+1 (52R-48D).

Dems flip AZ and CO; Republicans flip AL.

All states vote for Senate the same way they do for president except for Maine (which narrowly votes for Collins while voting for Biden)

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Competitive Senate races (or ones which will flip):

AL: Tuberville +16 (FLIP)
AK: Sullivan +6
AZ: Kelly +7 (FLIP)
CO: Hickenlooper +9 (FLIP)
GA: Perdue +2
GA-S: Collins +3
IA: Ernst +4
KS: Marshall +8
ME: Gideon +<1 (FLIP)
MI: Peters +5
MN: Smith +9
MT: Daines +1
NH: Shaheen +10
NC: Cunningham +1 (FLIP)
TX: Cornyn +6

Gideon narrowly beats Collins after RCV is tabulated, which leads to a ton of drama.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like evryone is very optimistic about the Ds chance of retaking the senate. Partianship will end up winning out in many competative races, Trump isn't likely to be this low on election day, and there's too many things that could go wrong for Democrats. Rs have already had their fair share of screw ups this cycle.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

We are optimistic due to fact we arent living in a 3.5 percent unemployment where a Dem 50 seat majority or a narrow R majority will hold. We are living in a 10.1 percent unemployment and Trump's approvals are the same as Obama's was during the 2010 takeover of Congress and Boehner netted 60 House seats. Dems are optimistic about netting more than just 50 seats to do away with the filibuster once and for all.

Winning AZ, CO, GA, IA, KS, ME, MT and NC with longshots in AK, KY, SC and TX are key to that Supermajority

[We Live in Black and White]

Just gonna go with the big ones here, and at this point in time, with Trump being absolutely annihilated, I feel confident being a little confident. Flips in bold.

Alabama: 55-43 Tuberville
Alaska: 49-48 Sullivan
Arizona: 54-45 Kelly
Colorado: 56-42 Romanoff
Georgia: 50-49 Ossoff
Georgia Special Runoff: 52-48 Collins
Iowa: 52-47 Ernst
Kansas: 49-48 Bollier
Maine: 51-49 Gideon
Michigan: 55-43 Peters
Montana: 48.7-48.3 Bullock
New Hampshire: 56-42 Shaheen
North Carolina: 50-47 Cunningham
Texas: 51-47 Cornyn