Who will be the 2024 Republican presidential nominee (Jun 2020)

[TDAS04]

A Trump.

[LabourJersey]

I voted Trump primarily because if he loses I genuinely don't think he will know how to have a quiet retirement. Combined with how he'll inevitably comment and criticize anything Biden says or does, I think there's a good chance he'd run and a strong chance he would win the nomination.

Yes and failing that it'll be Don Jr.

I'm a little skeptical of Don Jr.'s political skills (and apparently so is Trump himself) but him winning a Republican party nomination in the future would not surprise me.

[NewYorkExpress]

I think Pence is the frontrunner at this point (assuming he doesn't piss off Trump between now and 2024) but I think it's going to be a real delegate fight for Republicans.

However, I think Republicans will nominate a woman in 2024, to compete with a likely Kamala Harris or AOC candidacy for Democrats, so I think their nominee will be one of the following.

1. Nikki Haley
2. Liz Cheney
3. Sarah Palin
4. Joni Ernst
5. Kim Reynolds.

[S019]

I think Pence is the frontrunner at this point (assuming he doesn't piss off Trump between now and 2024) but I think it's going to be a real delegate fight for Republicans.

However, I think Republicans will nominate a woman in 2024, to compete with a likely Kamala Harris or AOC candidacy for Democrats, so I think their nominee will be one of the following.

1. Nikki Haley
2. Liz Cheney
3. Sarah Palin
4. Joni Ernst
5. Kim Reynolds.

This would be a disaster for Democrats, anyways nominating Sarah Palin is political suicide, as a minority, Haley would never get through a GOP primary (she'd especially struggle in the South), Ernst may not even be in office in 2024, and even if she wins, her weak performance will definitely be a drag for her, as will her promise to "make Washington squeal," but not actually do anything, so Reynolds and Cheney are the options left, of these, Reynolds is probably the better option, given that Cheney's name is not something that popular in the new GOP electorate which is more resistant to the Bush style Old Guard, even if Trumpism is abandoned, I don't see Republicans going back to neoconservatism. But I have doubts that the GOP electorate is ready to nominate a woman.

DeSantis

He has blown his chances with his coronavirus response and currently has mediocre approvals. I honestly wouldn't be shocked if he lost in 2022.

A Trump.

If the GOP loses badly in November, there are many steps that they will take, re-embracing Trumpism is absolutely not one of them.

Paul Ryan is currently the most likely person to be the 47th president of the united states.

Fiscal conservatism, at least to the extent that Ryan believes in it, is another ideology of the past of the GOP, and why exactly would they be eager to embrace it, given stuff like the tax bill as well proposals to cut entitlements proved very unpopular among the public.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

DeSantis

He has blown his chances with his coronavirus response and currently has mediocre approvals. I honestly wouldn't be shocked if he lost in 2022.

DeSantis was character assassinated by the media, the same media that completely ignored Andrew Cuomo and Tom Wolf sending COVID-positive patients back into nursing homes, killing thousands of seniors.  His approvals will recover to a large extent.

[Sharpshooter]

DeSantis

He has blown his chances with his coronavirus response and currently has mediocre approvals. I honestly wouldn't be shocked if he lost in 2022.

Has he?  Lets look at the Covid-19 death tolls of the four most populated states:

New York - 30,998
California - 5,205
Texas - 2,062
Florida - 2,996

Florida has a marginally bigger population than New York.  Sure some mistakes were made but it appears he's done 'OK' overall and is getting a disproportionate amount of criticism relative to the stats there.

If anyone who has gotten a disproportionate amount of praise it's Cuomo.  New York's handling of the crisis been a total disaster.

[MABA 2020]

I voted Trump primarily because if he loses I genuinely don't think he will know how to have a quiet retirement. Combined with how he'll inevitably comment and criticize anything Biden says or does, I think there's a good chance he'd run and a strong chance he would win the nomination.

Yes and failing that it'll be Don Jr.

I'm a little skeptical of Don Jr.'s political skills (and apparently so is Trump himself) but him winning a Republican party nomination in the future would not surprise me.

Well the MAGA base loves Don Jr. and he seems to me to be very much his fathers son so thats what I'm basing it on. Plus name recognition will give Don an early advantage over DeSantis and the rest cos he has a more famous second name

[Sharpshooter]

I voted Trump primarily because if he loses I genuinely don't think he will know how to have a quiet retirement. Combined with how he'll inevitably comment and criticize anything Biden says or does, I think there's a good chance he'd run and a strong chance he would win the nomination.

Yes and failing that it'll be Don Jr.

I'm a little skeptical of Don Jr.'s political skills (and apparently so is Trump himself) but him winning a Republican party nomination in the future would not surprise me.

Well the MAGA base loves Don Jr. and he seems to me to be very much his fathers son so thats what I'm basing it on. Plus name recognition will give Don an early advantage over DeSantis and the rest cos he has a more famous second name

Why is there an assumption the Trump's want to stay in politics?  It will just end up like one of their business venture's that failed and they'll move on and do something else.  Possibly start up a cable news show to rival Fox (which will fail)

I actually predict none of the Trump's will run again and it wouldn't shock me if a conventional Republican won.

Trump had something that resonated with the GOP base but I don't know its easily replicated.  That wing of the party was split in 2012 over a number of candidates (Gingrich, Santorum, Bachmann, Cain, Perry etc), but Trump managed to unify them, no guarantee they'll have a unifying figure in 2024.

Lets not forget also the GOP establishment will make it much tougher for an outsider to win next time round.  Trump wasn't attacked by his rivals till February in 2016 by then it was too late.

[MATTROSE94]

Probably Tom Cotton. I see a Tom Cotton/Cindy Hyde-Smith ticket likely for the Republicans in 2024.

[Suburbia]

Probably Tom Cotton. I see a Tom Cotton/Cindy Hyde-Smith ticket likely for the Republicans in 2024.

Are you serious? Hyde Smith? Cotton is not presidential material.

[2016]

This would be a disaster for Democrats, anyways nominating Sarah Palin is political suicide, as a minority, Haley would never get through a GOP primary (she'd especially struggle in the South), Ernst may not even be in office in 2024, and even if she wins, her weak performance will definitely be a drag for her, as will her promise to "make Washington squeal," but not actually do anything, so Reynolds and Cheney are the options left, of these, Reynolds is probably the better option, given that Cheney's name is not something that popular in the new GOP electorate which is more resistant to the Bush style Old Guard, even if Trumpism is abandoned, I don't see Republicans going back to neoconservatism. But I have doubts that the GOP electorate is ready to nominate a woman.

Haley would never get the Nomination and struggle in the South is just pure FANTASY on your behalf.
It's also somewhat racism as well as you don't want someone with a Name "Nimratha" in the WH.
She is from the South. She would clean up the South probably the same way Trump cleaned up Ted Cruz Evangelical Base which is many pundits pegged Cruz to beat Trump.
She would win States like SC, GA, AL, MS, LA, AR, TN, OK, VA and NC.
Cruz won only OK in 2016.

If Haley wants this it's hers and these other Republicans have to come together and accept that - Period.

On Mike Pence,
If Biden wins by a 1996 or 1988 like landslide electorally he takes Pence down with him so Pence is done as well.

And here is why I am quite confident Pence won't be the Nominee even in the unlikely scenario he runs. Look what happened in 2016: Jeb Bush tried to run for the Presidency eight years after his brother left Office hoping that Republican Primary Voters would get over the Bush Presidency. He was such a weak Candidate that Trump gave it a shot. The fact of the matter is: IF Jeb hadn't been sooo weak as a Candidate Trump never would have run. You can deny it but that is a fact. Jebs weakness opened the path for Trump.

[MATTROSE94]

Probably Tom Cotton. I see a Tom Cotton/Cindy Hyde-Smith ticket likely for the Republicans in 2024.

Are you serious? Hyde Smith? Cotton is not presidential material.

I think that Tom Cotton could win the Republican primary in 2024 (assuming that Donald Trump loses re-election), as even though he is a pretty vile character, he can unite both the neoconservatives and Trump supporters due to his policy positions. Cindy Hyde-Smith would probably be a decent running-mate for him given her strong pro-Trump position on nearly all public policy issues. Still, a Tom Cotton/Cindy Hyde-Smith ticker would end up being a sacrificial lamb Republican ticket, maybe only receiving 43% of the popular vote and 149 electoral votes. 

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Haley would never get the Nomination and struggle in the South is just pure FANTASY on your behalf.
It's also somewhat racism as well as you don't want someone with a Name "Nimratha" in the WH.
She is from the South. She would clean up the South probably the same way Trump cleaned up Ted Cruz Evangelical Base which is many pundits pegged Cruz to beat Trump.
She would win States like SC, GA, AL, MS, LA, AR, TN, OK, VA and NC.
Cruz won only OK in 2016.

If Haley wants this it's hers and these other Republicans have to come together and accept that - Period.

Although I don't think Haley has a "lock" on the entire south, she is heavily favored in SC, I could easily see her winning NC and FL if DeSantis sits this one out and Rick Scott doesn't run.  She might also do alright in the west and northeast.

The only shot Pence has is if a) the Trump loss is extraordinarily close (closer than 16's 78K votes)  and B) Trump endorses him immediately.  I don't think either is that likely-Trump will still have alot of sway and wait until the primaries to play kingmaker.  That said Pence definitely wants the job, at least back in 2016.





Also bumping this to page 2 since it's the most detailed analysis in the entire thread.

Actually I'm going to ignore your question and tell you who won't be the nominee in 2024:


Anyone from 2016.  Regardless of their merits as a candidate, I can't see Rubio, Cruz, Christie, Rand Paul, Scott Walker (even if he returns to the governor's mansion)or Kasich gaining traction. Cruz and Rubio, if anyone would have the best chance.

It's not going to be an influencer like Ben Shapiro or Don Jr.  Tucker, as much as I like him wouldn't get far.

Tim Scott hasn't signaled any interest and I doubt Baker wants the job, and James would need to win the Senate race this year to have a shot.  Matt Gaetz is too fringe to catch on and Crenshaw's relationship with the trumpian base isn't as good as you'd think, and is "just" a house member.  I'm not sure how seriously I take Kobach as a potential candidate, and Liz Cheney has "Cheney" as her last name.

Romney and Paul Ryan are persona non grata in the modern GOP, and justifiably so.

Trump would be 78 and in less than ideal health-he already looks exhausted and I don't think he wants the job, rather a peaceful retirement.  Assuming Biden wins this year, that takes Mike Pence out of consideration, who would be the frontrunner if Trump won.



That leaves these candidates as finalists:

Nikki Haley: experienced, great resume, theoretically strong with suburban and nonwhite voters, questionable strength among base.

Ron DeSantis:stipulating his re-election success, the best-rounded candidate the GOP has in terms of demographic appeal, strong and popular leader of one of the largest states.

Josh Hawley:the logical path of the GOP's economic populism, but quite young and his appeal outside of the base is unknown.

Tom Cotton: foreign policy and crime hawk, knows the pulse of the Trumpian base, but like Hawley his appeal outside of it is untested.

Rick Scott: Ruthlessly ambitious and personally wealthy. Might have suburban-base appeal but his Florida record has skeletons.  Will be 72 in 2024.

Mike Pompeo: Has genuine foreign policy bonafides and a strong record as SOS.  Wants the job.


possibly Mike Pence or Ted Cruz. Both of whom definitely want the job.

[Octowakandi]

Actually I'm going to ignore your question and tell you who won't be the nominee in 2024:


Anyone from 2016.  Regardless of their merits as a candidate, I can't see Rubio, Cruz, Christie, Rand Paul, Scott Walker (even if he returns to the governor's mansion)or Kasich gaining traction. Cruz and Rubio, if anyone would have the best chance.

It's not going to be an influencer like Ben Shapiro or Don Jr.  Tucker, as much as I like him wouldn't get far.

Tim Scott hasn't signaled any interest and I doubt Baker wants the job, and James would need to win the Senate race this year to have a shot.  Matt Gaetz is too fringe to catch on and Crenshaw's relationship with the trumpian base isn't as good as you'd think, and is "just" a house member.  I'm not sure how seriously I take Kobach as a potential candidate, and Liz Cheney has "Cheney" as her last name.

Romney and Paul Ryan are persona non grata in the modern GOP, and justifiably so.

Trump would be 78 and in less than ideal health-he already looks exhausted and I don't think he wants the job, rather a peaceful retirement.  Assuming Biden wins this year, that takes Mike Pence out of consideration, who would be the frontrunner if Trump won.



That leaves these candidates as finalists:

Nikki Haley: experienced, great resume, theoretically strong with suburban and nonwhite voters, questionable strength among base.

Ron DeSantis:stipulating his re-election success, the best-rounded candidate the GOP has in terms of demographic appeal, strong and popular leader of one of the largest states.

Josh Hawley:the logical path of the GOP's economic populism, but quite young and his appeal outside of the base is unknown.

Tom Cotton: foreign policy and crime hawk, knows the pulse of the Trumpian base, but like Hawley his appeal outside of it is untested.

Rick Scott: Ruthlessly ambitious and personally wealthy. Might have suburban-base appeal but his Florida record has skeletons.  Will be 72 in 2024.

Mike Pompeo: Has genuine foreign policy bonafides and a strong record as SOS.  Wants the job.


possibly Mike Pence or Ted Cruz. Both of whom definitely want the job.

Ecxcellent analysis. Much better than going "Haley is Indian, GOP is too racist". I will say on Hawley and Cotton, it's unknown how much appeal they have even to Trump's base. I don't think there's ever been a clear answer as to what draws people to Trump's base probably because there's multiple different answers. Some are there because he doesn't want to cut Medicare and SS, some because he's tough on immigration, some because he seems tough in general, some because he promises to leave foreign conflicts, some just because they know who he is from a game show, and I'm sure most are some combination of these. Hawley and Cotton are making each bets on what they feel was the strongest draw for the base. Cotton is betting immigration and the tough guy rhetoric (but not taking the military withdrawal angle). Hawley is betting the economic aspect as well as culture war angle. It is yet to be seen who made the best bet. Personally I think Cotton will find that a neocon that's anti immigration is not what the trump base wants once he actually starts campaigning. Hawley I think made the more salient bet and to his benefit as well, nobody has taken that lane while there won't be any shortage of people calling to be tough on the border

On Don Jr, he won't run this year but he certainly will later. He's the one who's become most interested in elected politics as we saw in the midterms and how he has grown to have great relations with party people. He will in the next six years run for either governor or Senator in a red state that he'll carpetbag to (he was very interested in running for new York gov during the midterm but I think he realizes he can't win that after talking to party folks). He really fell in love with Montana so I wouldn't rule it out at all especially if Gianforte loses.

[brucejoel99]

It's difficult to say who wins without knowing what the GOP looks like after Trump. Cotton & Hawley seem like good bets to run. Haley has been taking all the right steps to position herself for a future run as well, but her being successful seems like a long shot. I wouldn't be surprised to see Cruz &/or Rubio give it another go, though the latter seems more likely to make way for Pence. Don Jr. isn't a crazy possibility, & I have absolutely no idea how that'd play out. There are others like DeSantis & Scott, who seem plausible enough.

[2016]

Haley would never get the Nomination and struggle in the South is just pure FANTASY on your behalf.
It's also somewhat racism as well as you don't want someone with a Name "Nimratha" in the WH.
She is from the South. She would clean up the South probably the same way Trump cleaned up Ted Cruz Evangelical Base which is many pundits pegged Cruz to beat Trump.
She would win States like SC, GA, AL, MS, LA, AR, TN, OK, VA and NC.
Cruz won only OK in 2016.

If Haley wants this it's hers and these other Republicans have to come together and accept that - Period.

Although I don't think Haley has a "lock" on the entire south, she is heavily favored in SC, I could easily see her winning NC and FL if DeSantis sits this one out and Rick Scott doesn't run.  She might also do alright in the west and northeast.

The only shot Pence has is if a) the Trump loss is extraordinarily close (closer than 16's 78K votes)  and B) Trump endorses him immediately.  I don't think either is that likely-Trump will still have alot of sway and wait until the primaries to play kingmaker.  That said Pence definitely wants the job, at least back in 2016.

If Biden wins and picks a Woman of Colour as his Running Mate who runs in 2024 TRUST ME that Republicans will pick a Woman in 2024 either for POTUS or as Running Mate. And that person would be a hell lot more qualified than Sarah Palin ever would be.
Nikki Haley would not just be an awesome Presidential Candidate, she would also be an incredible VP Candidate for anyone not named Trump Jr, Hawley, Cotton, etc.

Imagine a Rick Scott/Nikki Haley Ticket. That would be a perfectly balanced Ticket with Scott being 72 and Haley 53. Experience & Youth.

As far as Rubio is concerned I wouldn't be surprised if he retires in 2022 given that he flirted with Retirement in 2016 before the GOP Senate Leadership coaxed him to run again. Remember 2009 after Obama won a lot of Republican Senators were heading for the EXITS such as Mel Martinez (FL), Judd Gregg (NH), Kit Bond (MO), George Voinovich (OH).
2021 could be a lot worse compared to 2009.

[Spark]

Nikki Haley I hope.

[TarHeelDem]

One of these people:

Donald Trump, Sr.
Donald Trump, Jr.
Tom Cotton
Josh Hawley
Ron DeSantis

[2016]

One of these people:

Donald Trump, Sr.
Donald Trump, Jr.
Tom Cotton
Josh Hawley
Ron DeSantis

No way! The Trumps are finished! Jr. can run for Mayor of New York or Governor but he will never get near the WH again.

[Escape Pod Zero]

Voted for Shapiro by accident, but I think Nikki Haley is the clear favorite. She will be a good way to repair the party after immense damage from a Trump loss.

[RINO Tom]

Haley would be the most talented at playing the game that allows both those wanting to move on from Trump and those fiercely loyal to him to save face and unite without feeling like they gave up anything major.

[MT Treasurer]

It’s way too early to predict these things (Hawley, DeSantis, or Scott would be my early guess, but it could just as well be Tucker Carlson or someone not on your list) but I really, really don’t think Haley will be the "clear frontrunner" or even come very close, tbh.

[RINO Tom]

It’s way too early to predict these things (Hawley, DeSantis, or Scott would be my early guess, but it could just as well be Tucker Carlson or someone not on your list) but I really, really don’t think Haley will be the "clear frontrunner" or even come very close, tbh.

Why?

[2016]

It’s way too early to predict these things (Hawley, DeSantis, or Scott would be my early guess, but it could just as well be Tucker Carlson or someone not on your list) but I really, really don’t think Haley will be the "clear frontrunner" or even come very close, tbh.

Why?

MT Treasurer is wrong.
Nikki Haley could potentially win Iowa and South Carolina and therefore put the Republican Primary to bed early.
And even if she doesn't win IA but finishes in the Top 3 she is in very good shape.

Because if you look by History the Republican Candidate who wins South Carolina usually wins the Nomination. SC does pick Nominees.

Bob Dole in 1996
George W. Bush in 2000
John McCain in 2008
Donald Trump in 2016
Nikki Haley in 2024???

The only Excemption is Newt Gingrich in 2012.

A win by Haley in SC and therefore a Polling Bounce could be used by her to win a lot of ST States.

[2016]

Here are my Top 8 Choices for President when it comes to Republicans:

Nikki Haley
Kristi Noem
Liz Cheney
Elise Stefanik
John James
Marco Rubio
Ron DeSantis
Rick Scott

That being said if Republicans get the House back in 2022 Liz Cheney will be Speaker and I would replace her on that List with Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds.