Race-Based House Districts

[Idaho Conservative]

All right folks, time to end the long hiatus. Still don't expect frequent updates, but I'll try to be more consistent.


Minnesota



MN-1: Minneapolis-based district, so probably Democratic territory, but probably not overwhelmingly so. Likely D.

MN-2: Ditto for the St. Paul based one. Probably a little less so since St. Paul is smaller and the district extends further into the suburbs. Still, Likely D.

MN-3: This would have been a competitive district until recently. Obama almost certainly won it in 2008, and it was very close in 2012 either way. In 2016, though, it went for T***p by over 10 points, and that's probably the new normal. If Nolan held the seat until 2018, then it would easily have flipped when he retired. Collin Peterson also lives within that district, though, so if he's the incumbent he'd probably win. Likely R.

MN-4: These northern Twin Cities suburbs/exurbs have always been conservative, and haven't really moved left ever since. This is Tom Emmer's seat. Safe R.

MN-5: Probably the most Republican district at this point. I'm pretty sure T***p won over 60% here. I'm not sure who would represent it, but barring a particularly strong local Democrat, this seat has been in GOP hands for a while. Safe R.

MN-6: This is probably the most competitive of the non-Twin Cities seats. McCain, Romney and T***p all won it, and probably by increasing margins, but the trend hasn't been quite as strong as elsewhere owing to the D-trending suburban areas to the North. Angie Craig might have won there, but it would have been a close race. Likely R.

Minneapolis not safe d?

[Antonio the Sixth]

All right folks, time to end the long hiatus. Still don't expect frequent updates, but I'll try to be more consistent.


Minnesota



MN-1: Minneapolis-based district, so probably Democratic territory, but probably not overwhelmingly so. Likely D.

MN-2: Ditto for the St. Paul based one. Probably a little less so since St. Paul is smaller and the district extends further into the suburbs. Still, Likely D.

MN-3: This would have been a competitive district until recently. Obama almost certainly won it in 2008, and it was very close in 2012 either way. In 2016, though, it went for T***p by over 10 points, and that's probably the new normal. If Nolan held the seat until 2018, then it would easily have flipped when he retired. Collin Peterson also lives within that district, though, so if he's the incumbent he'd probably win. Likely R.

MN-4: These northern Twin Cities suburbs/exurbs have always been conservative, and haven't really moved left ever since. This is Tom Emmer's seat. Safe R.

MN-5: Probably the most Republican district at this point. I'm pretty sure T***p won over 60% here. I'm not sure who would represent it, but barring a particularly strong local Democrat, this seat has been in GOP hands for a while. Safe R.

MN-6: This is probably the most competitive of the non-Twin Cities seats. McCain, Romney and T***p all won it, and probably by increasing margins, but the trend hasn't been quite as strong as elsewhere owing to the D-trending suburban areas to the North. Angie Craig might have won there, but it would have been a close race. Likely R.

Minneapolis not safe d?

If it was just Minneapolis it would probably be safe D, but I think it has enough suburbs to push it down to Likely. Griff and Reagente can correct me, but iirc Hennepin county Whites never voted for Democrats by more than 60%.

[Idaho Conservative]

All right folks, time to end the long hiatus. Still don't expect frequent updates, but I'll try to be more consistent.


Minnesota



MN-1: Minneapolis-based district, so probably Democratic territory, but probably not overwhelmingly so. Likely D.

MN-2: Ditto for the St. Paul based one. Probably a little less so since St. Paul is smaller and the district extends further into the suburbs. Still, Likely D.

MN-3: This would have been a competitive district until recently. Obama almost certainly won it in 2008, and it was very close in 2012 either way. In 2016, though, it went for T***p by over 10 points, and that's probably the new normal. If Nolan held the seat until 2018, then it would easily have flipped when he retired. Collin Peterson also lives within that district, though, so if he's the incumbent he'd probably win. Likely R.

MN-4: These northern Twin Cities suburbs/exurbs have always been conservative, and haven't really moved left ever since. This is Tom Emmer's seat. Safe R.

MN-5: Probably the most Republican district at this point. I'm pretty sure T***p won over 60% here. I'm not sure who would represent it, but barring a particularly strong local Democrat, this seat has been in GOP hands for a while. Safe R.

MN-6: This is probably the most competitive of the non-Twin Cities seats. McCain, Romney and T***p all won it, and probably by increasing margins, but the trend hasn't been quite as strong as elsewhere owing to the D-trending suburban areas to the North. Angie Craig might have won there, but it would have been a close race. Likely R.

Minneapolis not safe d?

If it was just Minneapolis it would probably be safe D, but I think it has enough suburbs to push it down to Likely. Griff and Reagente can correct me, but iirc Hennepin county Whites never voted for Democrats by more than 60%.

But the most conservative parts of Hennepin are excluded.  The white vote is likely 60-40 which is safe D

[reagente]

All right folks, time to end the long hiatus. Still don't expect frequent updates, but I'll try to be more consistent.


Minnesota



MN-1: Minneapolis-based district, so probably Democratic territory, but probably not overwhelmingly so. Likely D.

MN-2: Ditto for the St. Paul based one. Probably a little less so since St. Paul is smaller and the district extends further into the suburbs. Still, Likely D.

MN-3: This would have been a competitive district until recently. Obama almost certainly won it in 2008, and it was very close in 2012 either way. In 2016, though, it went for T***p by over 10 points, and that's probably the new normal. If Nolan held the seat until 2018, then it would easily have flipped when he retired. Collin Peterson also lives within that district, though, so if he's the incumbent he'd probably win. Likely R.

MN-4: These northern Twin Cities suburbs/exurbs have always been conservative, and haven't really moved left ever since. This is Tom Emmer's seat. Safe R.

MN-5: Probably the most Republican district at this point. I'm pretty sure T***p won over 60% here. I'm not sure who would represent it, but barring a particularly strong local Democrat, this seat has been in GOP hands for a while. Safe R.

MN-6: This is probably the most competitive of the non-Twin Cities seats. McCain, Romney and T***p all won it, and probably by increasing margins, but the trend hasn't been quite as strong as elsewhere owing to the D-trending suburban areas to the North. Angie Craig might have won there, but it would have been a close race. Likely R.

Minneapolis not safe d?

If it was just Minneapolis it would probably be safe D, but I think it has enough suburbs to push it down to Likely. Griff and Reagente can correct me, but iirc Hennepin county Whites never voted for Democrats by more than 60%.

Just under 60%, but the white vote in the portion of Hennepin in MN-04 must be in the upper 50s, so the MN-01 district is definitely over 60%.

Also, don't forget the third party vote. The Democratic margin of victory is like over 30%. As such, the Minneapolis District is definitely safe D.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Just under 60%, but the white vote in the portion of Hennepin in MN-04 must be in the upper 50s, so the MN-01 district is definitely over 60%.

Also, don't forget the third party vote. The Democratic margin of victory is like over 30%. As such, the Minneapolis District is definitely safe D.

Yeah, that's a D+25 PVI based on these numbers. However, I assume that the PVI was lower in 2008 and 2012. I use some weighted average of those three to infer the current PVI, so if the trend was very big, it's possible that it still falls under D+20. Still, that's unlikely. Most likely BWP is right and this one is Safe D.