Who will win the NY-16 Democratic primary?

[AGA]

District includes part of the Bronx and Westchester County. Elliot Engel has held the seat for about three decades, but is facing a Sanders-backed primary challenger, Jamaal Bowman. As far as I know, there isn't any recent polling.

[wesmoorenerd]

Engel's campaign has been an embarrassing trainwreck on the level of Crowley, Tomlinson, or Cagle. Honestly might give a nod to Bowman as the favorite at this point.

[We Live in Black and White]

Engel has done literally everything in his power to lose from start to finish. Crowley I can give something of a pass for just being complacent, but Engel has coupled complacency with actively being a wanker in the crucial last few weeks.

Bowman.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Bowman will narrowly win, but the amount of progressive energy expended against pro-single-payer healthcare Engel has been disappointing when considering the ROI of putting more money/manpower into far more critical races in NY-15 and NY-17.

[W]

Engel will do well enough in Westchester where it will not be a blowout but he will lose.

[The Mamdani Virus]

I'm genuinely hoping that it's Engel, but probably Bowman, at this point.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Considering how many unforced errors Engel has made, I’d be surprised if Bowman didn’t win.

[Coldstream]

Engel has done all he can to lose, but I do think people are underestimating how hard it is for a challenger to campaign in these circumstances. Part of why AOC won was her ground game, Bowman isn’t able to do that. Engel is.

If I was going purely based on the twitter stuff I’d say Engel wins easily, I doubt many normal voters care about how he voted on the 1994 crime bill or the Iraq War anymore, however it seems like Bowmans actual campaign is a lot more sophisticated and based on Engel being absentee - which seems to be accurate and will cut through.

Overall I’d say it’ll be quite narrow, but Bowman probably wins.

[Babeuf]

Sadly I think Engel will barely pull it out.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Unless the national Democrats decide to abandon Engel, I think he pulls it out.

This feels a little like the many failed attempts to primary Rangel. This seat will wait for Bowman in 2-4 years, unfortunately.

[Democrats Hate Leftists More Than Predators]

Bowman. Unlike Cuellar, Engel has been a trainwreck.

[coloradocowboi]

Bowman will narrowly win, but the amount of progressive energy expended against pro-single-payer healthcare Engel has been disappointing when considering the ROI of putting more money/manpower into far more critical races in NY-15 and NY-17.

I guess this is right, but for me getting rid of another "Israel can do no wrong" Democrat is a victory that's worth it. Engel voted for Iraq. He wants to keep the embassy in Jerusalem. As someone who is vehemently anti-war, I think it's been worth the effort to get rid of him.

I'm still optimistic about Mondaire Jones' chances in NY-17. You're correct that NY-15 has been a disaster though, and progressives should've lined up behind Mark-Viverito early on to avoid this. I think 50-50 it's Ruben Diaz, and even if it's not it's probably Ritchie Torres, who is certainly way better but only about as progressive as Engel or any other tool of the NYC party machine.

[SnowLabrador]

Probably Bowman.