In which states would Medicaid expansion pass/fail? (Maps)
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  In which states would Medicaid expansion pass/fail? (Maps)
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Author Topic: In which states would Medicaid expansion pass/fail? (Maps)  (Read 1161 times)
Libertas Vel Mors
Haley/Ryan
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« on: June 11, 2020, 06:00:46 PM »

Been thinking about this a lot -- part of the issue is the battle lines within the party aren't always clearly drawn. IE -- more Utahans (70% R state) than Mississipians supporting it.



How realistic does this map seem?
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OBD
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: June 11, 2020, 08:30:53 PM »

This is a pretty good take, though I would personally expect some of the poorer Southern states to be more amicable to Medicaid expansion - I don't know the region very well though.
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clever but short
andy
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« Reply #2 on: June 12, 2020, 12:01:43 AM »

Well, that question will be tested in Oklahoma at the end of the month.
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Orser67
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« Reply #3 on: June 12, 2020, 03:34:40 PM »

It's not clear to me what you're mapping; are these states that would vote for/against expansion if a referendum were held there tomorrow (or reasonably soon)?
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Libertas Vel Mors
Haley/Ryan
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« Reply #4 on: June 12, 2020, 05:53:38 PM »

This is a pretty good take, though I would personally expect some of the poorer Southern states to be more amicable to Medicaid expansion - I don't know the region very well though.

Many Southerners are opposed to Medicaid expansion, even when lower income -- part of a good bit of more traditional conservatism and opposition to government control. Sometimes a lot of this is regional -- one of the most interesting things I saw looking at the data was that Nebraska and Utah had the same Medicaid expansion margins, even though Utah is much more Republican. Generally speaking, Southern Whites are even more conservative and inelastic than Nebraskans, so I applied the same general logic there, but marking off states like AR that have a hint of economic liberalism too them and states like GA that are somewhat purplish.
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Libertas Vel Mors
Haley/Ryan
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« Reply #5 on: June 12, 2020, 05:54:22 PM »

It's not clear to me what you're mapping; are these states that would vote for/against expansion if a referendum were held there tomorrow (or reasonably soon)?

Tomorrow, though I doubt there's too much of a difference.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #6 on: June 12, 2020, 06:50:53 PM »

It would probably pass in all of them if put to a ballot question.
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slothdem
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« Reply #7 on: June 12, 2020, 08:57:04 PM »

Yeah, my gut is it passes in all 50 with only Wyoming and Idaho as being close.
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Libertas Vel Mors
Haley/Ryan
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« Reply #8 on: June 12, 2020, 10:12:36 PM »

Yeah, my gut is it passes in all 50 with only Wyoming and Idaho as being close.

That’s objectively untrue, at least on the close part lol. It barely passed in Nebraska and Utah for instance. People always overestimate the susceptibility of Americans for big government and high taxes.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #9 on: June 13, 2020, 08:18:27 AM »

This is a pretty good take, though I would personally expect some of the poorer Southern states to be more amicable to Medicaid expansion - I don't know the region very well though.

Many Southerners are opposed to Medicaid expansion, even when lower income -- part of a good bit of more traditional conservatism and opposition to government control. Sometimes a lot of this is regional -- one of the most interesting things I saw looking at the data was that Nebraska and Utah had the same Medicaid expansion margins, even though Utah is much more Republican. Generally speaking, Southern Whites are even more conservative and inelastic than Nebraskans, so I applied the same general logic there, but marking off states like AR that have a hint of economic liberalism too them and states like GA that are somewhat purplish.

Utah is a lot more comfortable with "big government" than other heavily-Republican states. Just another reason (along with demographics and population growth) that I'm shocked it isn't a swing state yet.

Missouri would likely vote over 60% for Medicaid expansion. Extremely populist state.
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #10 on: June 13, 2020, 09:12:21 AM »

Yeah, my gut is it passes in all 50 with only Wyoming and Idaho as being close.

That’s objectively untrue, at least on the close part lol. It barely passed in Nebraska and Utah for instance. People always overestimate the susceptibility of Americans for big government and high taxes.

It passed by 7% in Nebraska and 6% in Utah.   That's not barely.   
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It’s so Joever
Forumlurker161
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« Reply #11 on: June 14, 2020, 08:02:15 PM »

This is a pretty good take, though I would personally expect some of the poorer Southern states to be more amicable to Medicaid expansion - I don't know the region very well though.

Many Southerners are opposed to Medicaid expansion, even when lower income -- part of a good bit of more traditional conservatism and opposition to government control. Sometimes a lot of this is regional -- one of the most interesting things I saw looking at the data was that Nebraska and Utah had the same Medicaid expansion margins, even though Utah is much more Republican. Generally speaking, Southern Whites are even more conservative and inelastic than Nebraskans, so I applied the same general logic there, but marking off states like AR that have a hint of economic liberalism too them and states like GA that are somewhat purplish.

Utah is a lot more comfortable with "big government" than other heavily-Republican states. Just another reason (along with demographics and population growth) that I'm shocked it isn't a swing state yet.

Missouri would likely vote over 60% for Medicaid expansion. Extremely populist state.
That tends to happen when the 90% of the Republican voter base is super religious Mormons.
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slothdem
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« Reply #12 on: June 15, 2020, 08:12:25 AM »

Yeah, my gut is it passes in all 50 with only Wyoming and Idaho as being close.

That’s objectively untrue, at least on the close part lol. It barely passed in Nebraska and Utah for instance. People always overestimate the susceptibility of Americans for big government and high taxes.

It passed by 7% in Nebraska and 6% in Utah.   That's not barely.   

And those are what, probably two of the five state's where it's least likely to pass?
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Wazza [INACTIVE]
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« Reply #13 on: June 16, 2020, 10:20:09 AM »

This is a pretty good take, though I would personally expect some of the poorer Southern states to be more amicable to Medicaid expansion - I don't know the region very well though.

Many Southerners are opposed to Medicaid expansion, even when lower income -- part of a good bit of more traditional conservatism and opposition to government control. Sometimes a lot of this is regional -- one of the most interesting things I saw looking at the data was that Nebraska and Utah had the same Medicaid expansion margins, even though Utah is much more Republican. Generally speaking, Southern Whites are even more conservative and inelastic than Nebraskans, so I applied the same general logic there, but marking off states like AR that have a hint of economic liberalism too them and states like GA that are somewhat purplish.

Utah is a lot more comfortable with "big government" than other heavily-Republican states. Just another reason (along with demographics and population growth) that I'm shocked it isn't a swing state yet.

Missouri would likely vote over 60% for Medicaid expansion. Extremely populist state.

You’re shocked that a state dominated by a relatively wealthy, overwhelmingly white and conservative religious group is firmly Republican?
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Wazza [INACTIVE]
Wazza1901
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« Reply #14 on: June 16, 2020, 10:26:01 AM »

Anyway, support for Medicaid expansion would be largely dependent upon the details of each individual proposal and the context of the Medicaid parameters already in place in each state. So making a map like this isn’t very useful.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #15 on: June 30, 2020, 09:10:06 PM »

>.>

Looks like Oklahoma is gonna pass it

https://results.okelections.us/OKER/?elecDate=20200630

(Usually I don't bump threads, but this wasn't being talked about anywhere else).

It's barely ahead right now, but almost everything left is in Oklahoma and Tulsa counties where it's winning overwhelmingly.

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RINO Tom
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« Reply #16 on: June 30, 2020, 09:30:34 PM »

Anyway, support for Medicaid expansion would be largely dependent upon the details of each individual proposal and the context of the Medicaid parameters already in place in each state. So making a map like this isn’t very useful.

This.  Opinion polls show huge support for it, when details aren't involved.  You could get a "light expansion" that is "financed the right way" to pass in all fifty states.
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