CA-21 2022: Does Cox face a primary challenge?

[Bea O'Problem]

The tax scandal might damage him. Does he face a credible primary challenger? Does he win or lose?

[Woody]

It's not even likely he makes it to 2022, He lost by double digits to Valadao in the jungle primary, and that was with a heavily competitive democratic primary going on at the same time, so you can't really compare that to 2018, and the tax scandal is already putting a huge dent on his reputation. I believe he will lose by 6+ points to Valadao this year.

But if he does win, he probably gets primaried next cycle.

[Bea O'Problem]

Valadao isn’t winning in a Biden 10+% district. Salas or Soria might primary Cox.

[SevenEleven]

No, not a serious one. Of course, this depends on how the district looks in 2022.

[GMantis]

It's not even likely he makes it to 2022, He lost by double digits to Valadao in the jungle primary, and that was with a heavily competitive democratic primary going on at the same time, so you can't really compare that to 2018, and the tax scandal is already putting a huge dent on his reputation. I believe he will lose by 6+ points to Valadao this year.

But if he does win, he probably gets primaried next cycle.

This is just disingenuous - you're leaving out the other Democratic candidate running in the primary and that the total Democratic vote was 47.9% -  a result which has always been followed by Democratic victory in the general election. In comparison, Valadao running solely against Cox got 62.8% in 2018

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

It's not even likely he makes it to 2022, He lost by double digits to Valadao in the jungle primary, and that was with a heavily competitive democratic primary going on at the same time, so you can't really compare that to 2018, and the tax scandal is already putting a huge dent on his reputation. I believe he will lose by 6+ points to Valadao this year.

But if he does win, he probably gets primaried next cycle.

No, an incumbent dem is not losing a Hillary + 16 district in a year with higher Hispanic turnout. If you're going to be a clown, at least wear better makeup

[Coastal Elitist]

It's not even likely he makes it to 2022, He lost by double digits to Valadao in the jungle primary, and that was with a heavily competitive democratic primary going on at the same time, so you can't really compare that to 2018, and the tax scandal is already putting a huge dent on his reputation. I believe he will lose by 6+ points to Valadao this year.

But if he does win, he probably gets primaried next cycle.

This is just disingenuous - you're leaving out the other Democratic candidate running in the primary and that the total Democratic vote was 47.9% -  a result which has always been followed by Democratic victory in the general election. In comparison, Valadao running solely against Cox got 62.8% in 2018

That's incorrect Valadao actually improved his numbers from the primary to the general in 2016.

[Bea O'Problem]

It's not even likely he makes it to 2022, He lost by double digits to Valadao in the jungle primary, and that was with a heavily competitive democratic primary going on at the same time, so you can't really compare that to 2018, and the tax scandal is already putting a huge dent on his reputation. I believe he will lose by 6+ points to Valadao this year.

But if he does win, he probably gets primaried next cycle.

This is just disingenuous - you're leaving out the other Democratic candidate running in the primary and that the total Democratic vote was 47.9% -  a result which has always been followed by Democratic victory in the general election. In comparison, Valadao running solely against Cox got 62.8% in 2018

That's incorrect Valadao actually improved his numbers from the primary to the general in 2016.

Valadao was an incumbent then. He doesn’t have that advantage now. Cox will ride Biden’s coattails.