Which of these congresspeople are DOA in November?

[Tekken_Guy]

Which of these congresspeople are DOA in November?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Jones and Gardner for obvious reasons. Brindisi will liekly lose, people often forget just hwo red his disrict is, and he hasn't built up the same brand like Petersen. Garcia will be stuck in Biden +10ish district, and he'll probably face a stronger challenger and full turnout. McSally if and only if she is still down by moe than 5 points in polling on election day. Even if she's only losing by 2 in polls, she's prolly losing since AZ polling is usually pretty spot on, and actually generally tends to favir Rs a bit. Loefeller prolly will be too and lose to Doug Collins and not make the runoff, and even if she does make the runoff, she would eithr lose to Collins, or the D, especially if this is the race that decides control of the senate.

[Roll Roons]

Definitely Jones, Gardner and Loeffler. I'm not ready to call McSally completely DOA because her state still isn't blue unlike Colorado, but at this point it's certainly not looking good for her.

I don't think any of the House members you listed are DOA. Peterson is a longtime incumbent with a conservative voting record, Brindisi and Garcia are facing the same weak candidates who managed to lose favorable districts in the first place, and Horn and Cunningham are probably slight underdogs, but their districts are trending D so they certainly shouldn't be counted out.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Unbelievable that more people think Gardner is safe than Jones.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Everybody except Garcia and Cunningham

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Jones, Gardner, Peterson and Loeffler are the only ones with pretty much no chance

[Gracile]

Jones, Gardner, Loeffler, and Peterson, though you could make a case for Brindisi/Horn/Garcia as well.

[wesmoorenerd]

Jones, Gardner, Loeffler (and that's because of Doug Collins.)

Arizona isn't blue enough for McSally to qualify as truly DOA. I don't think any of the House members are DOA or even underdogs except Garcia, Horn, and maybe Cunningham.

[SevenEleven]

Garcia will be stuck in Biden +10ish district, and he'll probably face a stronger challenger and full turnout.

Huh? He faces the same opponent in November.

[Xing]

Gardner, Jones, and Loeffler are pretty clearly DOA. While McSally and Peterson are very unlikely to win, I wouldn’t go quite so far as to call them DOA yet. Brindisi and Garcia will also have a very hard time winning, but have a better chance than McSally/Peterson.

[Joseph Cao]

If DOA refers specifically to those that have little-to-no chance, implying Likely/Safe for someone other than the incumbent, then just Jones (Safe R), Gardner (Likely D), and Loeffler (Likely Collins).

Horn, Brindisi, and Peterson are on the cusp of this category but all are still at Lean R in my book, as is McSally at Lean D (though bordering on Likely D). The difficulty with classifying Garcia is that he'll be facing Smith again with (presumably) higher turnout, so I'd put him at Tossup Tilt D together with Cunningham.

[😥]

1. Kelly Loeffler
2. Martha McSally
3. Cory Gardner
4. Doug Jones

All others can win

[NewYorkExpress]

Loffeler, Jones and Gardner of the Senators.

Peterson, Horn, Cunningham of the Representatives.

[Nutmeg]

Only the senators. Any of the representatives could pull out a victory.

[President Johnson]

Jones, Gardner, Loeffler and McSally in that order. All others have a decent chance to win, though I expect Kendra Horn to lose as well. McSally might change if she gets her act together, but as of now, I don't see it.

[W]

Everybody except Garcia and Cunningham

This x2

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Only Gardner and Jones are in seats which can be rated as safe-opponent, but GA is bordering on safe-non-Loeffler. She has some chance of making it to a winnable runoff (especially if it's an R vs R race), but we've little reason to belief she'll successfully change what is sure to be a losing strategy.

[Suburbia]

Sadly Jones.

Jones, Gardner, McSally, Loeffler, Peterson.

[Stuart98]

Just the first three. I wouldn't write off Loeffler so early; she has a massive fundraising advantage over Collins and has had a plurality over him in every poll taken since August 10th.

[DaleCooper]

Am I missing something (an internal or other poll, etc.) with Peterson or is it just a gut feeling that he has lost support since 2016-2018?

[Astatine]

Am I missing something (an internal or other poll, etc.) with Peterson or is it just a gut feeling that he has lost support since 2016-2018?

His opponent is the former Lt. Governor of Minnesota, his margins were shrinking constantly, internal polling proves he is vulnerable and his seat is actually getting targeted heavily. A combination of all those factors, although he might still hang on one last time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ of them, the SCOTUS vacancy has changed the EC map from a 413 election back to a 278 to 291 election due to Latinos and immigration reform and AZ, CO, NM and NV are different than FL, TX and NC due to oil drilling and hurricanes in Gulf

Folks its gonna come down to WI, NEB2, ME 2 and AZ and if Trump can move his polls like Bush W did after Bin Laden tape came out from 47 percent to 52 percent

On a contested election he can do, not outright win, if if goes longer than Election day

[DaleCooper]

Am I missing something (an internal or other poll, etc.) with Peterson or is it just a gut feeling that he has lost support since 2016-2018?

His opponent is the former Lt. Governor of Minnesota, his margins were shrinking constantly, internal polling proves he is vulnerable and his seat is actually getting targeted heavily. A combination of all those factors, although he might still hang on one last time.

Ah, I didn't realize he had that prominent of an opponent. It's possible he may not be favored, but I don't buy that he's anywhere close to DOA. If he loses, I think it'll be closer than what he won by in recent elections.

[Non Swing Voter]

Collins is now DOA.  There is no one this RBG thing hurt more than her.  I guess you could argue Gardner, but he was already DOA anyways.

[Calthrina950]

At this point, Jones, Gardner, and McSally are DOA. Loeffler has had a resurgence in her fortunes over the past three months, and she has a solid shot against Doug Collins, especially since Matt Lieberman appears to be weighing down Raphael Warnock and may very well keep him out of the runoff. Warnock hasn't been that impressive of a candidate (and neither has Jon Ossoff in the regular election against David Perdue). Georgia has certainly constituted one of the Democrats' main recruiting failures this cycle.

Peterson still has a chance, although he is probably the most vulnerable incumbent in the House right now. Horn and Cunningham appear to have the advantage in their races, and I think they are favorites at this point-and will definitely win if Biden (and in SC, Harrison) carry their districts. Brindisi still has a chance, particularly since Biden appears to be running well ahead of Hillary Clinton Upstate, and Garcia still has a chance, given the weaknesses of his opponent Chrissy Smith and the leads he has maintained in the polls.

I'm not ready to mark Susan Collins as DOA, but her position has clearly deteriorated since this thread was created, and it's clearer then before that she is the underdog against Gideon at this point.