Did the majority of Trump general election voters vote for Reagan in 1980 and 1984?

[darklordoftech]

?

[Sumner 1868]

Of those who could vote back then? Yes, though clearly not by an overwhelming amount. Here's a map
Averroës made comparing Hillary with previous Democratic candidates.

[The Mikado]

I would not bet on over 50% of Trump's supporters having done that, because he did well enough with 40-50-somethings who'd be too young to vote in 1984 (to have voted in 1984, you'd need to be a minimum of 50, and to vote in 1980, you'd have needed to be a minimum of 54) and it's not like a bunch of teens/early-20s were Reagan's strongest demo, either. In 2016, you wouldn't find all that many Reagan voters left who were under 60, and that's not going to be a majority of anyone's support.

[Del Tachi]

Nope.  The median age of a Trump voter in 2016 was just over 50 years old (born 1966), and like the Mikado posted above older Gen X'ers weren't really that large a part of the electorate in 1980/84.

[darklordoftech]

I would not bet on over 50% of Trump's supporters having done that, because he did well enough with 40-50-somethings who'd be too young to vote in 1984 (to have voted in 1984, you'd need to be a minimum of 50, and to vote in 1980, you'd have needed to be a minimum of 54) and it's not like a bunch of teens/early-20s were Reagan's strongest demo, either. In 2016, you wouldn't find all that many Reagan voters left who were under 60, and that's not going to be a majority of anyone's support.

Nope.  The median age of a Trump voter in 2016 was just over 50 years old (born 1966), and like the Mikado posted above older Gen X'ers weren't really that large a part of the electorate in 1980/84.

What if we only look at Trump voters who could vote in 1980 and/or 1984?

[RINO Tom]

I would not bet on over 50% of Trump's supporters having done that, because he did well enough with 40-50-somethings who'd be too young to vote in 1984 (to have voted in 1984, you'd need to be a minimum of 50, and to vote in 1980, you'd have needed to be a minimum of 54) and it's not like a bunch of teens/early-20s were Reagan's strongest demo, either. In 2016, you wouldn't find all that many Reagan voters left who were under 60, and that's not going to be a majority of anyone's support.

Nope.  The median age of a Trump voter in 2016 was just over 50 years old (born 1966), and like the Mikado posted above older Gen X'ers weren't really that large a part of the electorate in 1980/84.

What if we only look at Trump voters who could vote in 1980 and/or 1984?

I think it’s highly likely that of Trump’s voters who could vote in 1980 and especially 1984, the very large majority voted for Reagan.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I said it before, and as morbid as it is, it bears repeating.

Reagan's base is still there in Orange County, CA. It's just six feet below. Kind of makes turning out to vote difficult.

[Annatar]

No, if you restrict it to 1980, the youngest voters would have been 54 in 2016, voters over the age of 54 comprised a minority of all those who voted in 2016 and also the biggest share of voters who could vote in 1984 and 2016 were those that were in their late teens and early 20's in 1984, voters among which turnout would have been very low in 1984 so they wouldn't have cast many votes for anyone. Reagan's voter coalition is mostly dead at this point.

[SingingAnalyst]

Of those who were old enough to vote in 1984, I'd say about 70% or more who voted in 1984, voted for Reagan.

Per CNN, Trump won 53% of voters 50 and older. Reagan's 1984 vote had no age gradient to speak of, with voters younger than 50 (most of whom were still alive to vote in 2016) voting 58-41 Reagan over Mondale.

So of all who voted both years, even if 35% switched sides between 1984 and 2016, we have the following:

Mondale - Clinton: 25%
Mondale - Trump: 15%
Reagan - Clinton: 20%
Reagan - Trump: 38%
other: 2%

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

A more interesting question is how many Clinton voters who are old enough to have voted in 1984 voted for Reagan. My guess is not a majority but still a very sizable number.

[Calthrina950]

A more interesting question is how many Clinton voters who are old enough to have voted in 1984 voted for Reagan. My guess is not a majority but still a very sizable number.

We have at least two such posters here on the Atlas Forum who fit into this category: mollybecky and GeorgiaModerate. mollybecky openly stated that they voted for Reagan in 1984, and GeorgiaModerate, I'm pretty certain, was a Republican for decades before becoming an independent and subsequently, a Democrat. Conversely, we have a Trump voter here who did not vote for Reagan: Fuzzy Bear. He has said that he abstained in 1980 and voted for Mondale in 1984.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

A more interesting question is how many Clinton voters who are old enough to have voted in 1984 voted for Reagan. My guess is not a majority but still a very sizable number.

We have at least two such posters here on the Atlas Forum who fit into this category: mollybecky and GeorgiaModerate. mollybecky openly stated that they voted for Reagan in 1984, and GeorgiaModerate, I'm pretty certain, was a Republican for decades before becoming an independent and subsequently, a Democrat. Conversely, we have a Trump voter here who did not vote for Reagan: Fuzzy Bear. He has said that he abstained in 1980 and voted for Mondale in 1984.

Wow I'm fairly shocked that there are three posters born in the early 60's or so! They are all older than my parents

[Calthrina950]

A more interesting question is how many Clinton voters who are old enough to have voted in 1984 voted for Reagan. My guess is not a majority but still a very sizable number.

We have at least two such posters here on the Atlas Forum who fit into this category: mollybecky and GeorgiaModerate. mollybecky openly stated that they voted for Reagan in 1984, and GeorgiaModerate, I'm pretty certain, was a Republican for decades before becoming an independent and subsequently, a Democrat. Conversely, we have a Trump voter here who did not vote for Reagan: Fuzzy Bear. He has said that he abstained in 1980 and voted for Mondale in 1984.

Wow I'm fairly shocked that there are three posters born in the early 60's or so! They are all older than my parents

GeorgiaModerate and Fuzzy Bear, in fact, were born in the 1950s (I don't know about mollybecky). Two of this site's moderators (muon2 and Torie), who haven't been active as much recently, were also born in the 1950s. These four Baby Boomers are probably the oldest posters on this website, which tends to skew young overall.

[MATTROSE94]

I bet there are definitely a lot of voters who backed Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale in 1980 and 1984 but voted for Donald Trump in 2016 in West Virginia, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Tennessee, and parts of Ohio and Wisconsin. Conversely, there also exists an even higher number of Ronald Reagan 1980/1984 voters and Hillary Clinton 2016 voters in California, Texas, Arizona, Georgia, Virginia, New Jersey, parts of New England, and many other states. Honestly, I would probably guess that most Ronald Reagan 1980/1984 voters went for Hillary Clinton in 2016, whereas most Jimmy Carter 1980/Walter Mondale 1984 voters went for Donald Trump.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I bet there are definitely a lot of voters who backed Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale in 1980 and 1984 but voted for Donald Trump in 2016 in West Virginia, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Tennessee, and parts of Ohio and Wisconsin. Conversely, there also exists an even higher number of Ronald Reagan 1980/1984 voters and Hillary Clinton 2016 voters in California, Texas, Arizona, Georgia, Virginia, New Jersey, parts of New England, and many other states. Honestly, I would probably guess that most Ronald Reagan 1980/1984 voters went for Hillary Clinton in 2016, whereas most Jimmy Carter 1980/Walter Mondale 1984 voters went for Donald Trump.

That feels wrong, especially regarding 1984.

[RINO Tom]

I bet there are definitely a lot of voters who backed Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale in 1980 and 1984 but voted for Donald Trump in 2016 in West Virginia, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Tennessee, and parts of Ohio and Wisconsin. Conversely, there also exists an even higher number of Ronald Reagan 1980/1984 voters and Hillary Clinton 2016 voters in California, Texas, Arizona, Georgia, Virginia, New Jersey, parts of New England, and many other states. Honestly, I would probably guess that most Ronald Reagan 1980/1984 voters went for Hillary Clinton in 2016, whereas most Jimmy Carter 1980/Walter Mondale 1984 voters went for Donald Trump.

That feels wrong, especially regarding 1984.

Yeah, I HIGHLY doubt his claim, lol.

[The Mikado]

I bet there are definitely a lot of voters who backed Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale in 1980 and 1984 but voted for Donald Trump in 2016 in West Virginia, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Tennessee, and parts of Ohio and Wisconsin. Conversely, there also exists an even higher number of Ronald Reagan 1980/1984 voters and Hillary Clinton 2016 voters in California, Texas, Arizona, Georgia, Virginia, New Jersey, parts of New England, and many other states. Honestly, I would probably guess that most Ronald Reagan 1980/1984 voters went for Hillary Clinton in 2016, whereas most Jimmy Carter 1980/Walter Mondale 1984 voters went for Donald Trump.

That feels wrong, especially regarding 1984.

Yeah, I HIGHLY doubt his claim, lol.

Yeah, I kind of wish my mother were online enough to read this. She (voted for every Dem nominee since McGovern) would laugh her ass off about it.

[Former President tack50]

A more interesting question is how many Clinton voters who are old enough to have voted in 1984 voted for Reagan. My guess is not a majority but still a very sizable number.

We have at least two such posters here on the Atlas Forum who fit into this category: mollybecky and GeorgiaModerate. mollybecky openly stated that they voted for Reagan in 1984, and GeorgiaModerate, I'm pretty certain, was a Republican for decades before becoming an independent and subsequently, a Democrat. Conversely, we have a Trump voter here who did not vote for Reagan: Fuzzy Bear. He has said that he abstained in 1980 and voted for Mondale in 1984.

Wow I'm fairly shocked that there are three posters born in the early 60's or so! They are all older than my parents

GeorgiaModerate and Fuzzy Bear, in fact, were born in the 1950s (I don't know about mollybecky). Two of this site's moderators (muon2 and Torie), who haven't been active as much recently, were also born in the 1950s. These four Baby Boomers are probably the oldest posters on this website, which tends to skew young overall.

Iirc the oldest poster overall (though he is not all that active) is Arkansas Yankee who is like 75 or something like that (not to be confused with NC Yankee who is a radically different poster and way way younger than 75 )

But yeah they are exceptions as Atlas skews young for obvious reasons.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

A more interesting question is how many Clinton voters who are old enough to have voted in 1984 voted for Reagan. My guess is not a majority but still a very sizable number.

We have at least two such posters here on the Atlas Forum who fit into this category: mollybecky and GeorgiaModerate. mollybecky openly stated that they voted for Reagan in 1984, and GeorgiaModerate, I'm pretty certain, was a Republican for decades before becoming an independent and subsequently, a Democrat. Conversely, we have a Trump voter here who did not vote for Reagan: Fuzzy Bear. He has said that he abstained in 1980 and voted for Mondale in 1984.

Wow I'm fairly shocked that there are three posters born in the early 60's or so! They are all older than my parents

GeorgiaModerate and Fuzzy Bear, in fact, were born in the 1950s (I don't know about mollybecky). Two of this site's moderators (muon2 and Torie), who haven't been active as much recently, were also born in the 1950s. These four Baby Boomers are probably the oldest posters on this website, which tends to skew young overall.

Iirc the oldest poster overall (though he is not all that active) is Arkansas Yankee who is like 75 or something like that (not to be confused with NC Yankee who is a radically different poster and way way younger than 75 )

But yeah they are exceptions as Atlas skews young for obvious reasons.

Wow that's something. My grandparents are all around that age and I think that only 1 out of the 4 of them would be able to use a forum like this.

By the way I have just checked Arkansas Yankee's profile and he sounds like a living proof of the age gap in voting preferences. (like Fuzzy Bear)

[DPKdebator]

Demographic changes and generation turnover play a vastly larger role in explaining the shifting of voting patterns over the past four decades. Many working class whites and union members do not have the institutional connection to the Democrats that their parents or grandparents did, which explains the shift of states like West Virginia and Ohio to the Republicans. On the other hand, states that have significantly diversified like California have seen a Democratic trend, while generational turnover in Vermont saw old Yankee Republicans replaced by younger hippie flatlanders and their descendants as the dominant political force in the state.

[Calthrina950]

A more interesting question is how many Clinton voters who are old enough to have voted in 1984 voted for Reagan. My guess is not a majority but still a very sizable number.

We have at least two such posters here on the Atlas Forum who fit into this category: mollybecky and GeorgiaModerate. mollybecky openly stated that they voted for Reagan in 1984, and GeorgiaModerate, I'm pretty certain, was a Republican for decades before becoming an independent and subsequently, a Democrat. Conversely, we have a Trump voter here who did not vote for Reagan: Fuzzy Bear. He has said that he abstained in 1980 and voted for Mondale in 1984.

Wow I'm fairly shocked that there are three posters born in the early 60's or so! They are all older than my parents

GeorgiaModerate and Fuzzy Bear, in fact, were born in the 1950s (I don't know about mollybecky). Two of this site's moderators (muon2 and Torie), who haven't been active as much recently, were also born in the 1950s. These four Baby Boomers are probably the oldest posters on this website, which tends to skew young overall.

Iirc the oldest poster overall (though he is not all that active) is Arkansas Yankee who is like 75 or something like that (not to be confused with NC Yankee who is a radically different poster and way way younger than 75 )

But yeah they are exceptions as Atlas skews young for obvious reasons.

I almost forgot about him, probably because he isn't active that often (though I think he made a post about a week or so ago). Nevertheless, there is certainly a difference between older and younger voters with regards to their preferences and their life experiences.

[LabourJersey]

A more interesting question is how many Clinton voters who are old enough to have voted in 1984 voted for Reagan. My guess is not a majority but still a very sizable number.

I'd say there's a good number of well-educated middle-aged white voters who fall into this category. Probably a good number of voters over 50 in the area of NJ where I'm from (a suburban area that voted big for Reagan in 1984 and now has been trending toward the Dems very quickly)