If Biden wins in 2020, how many SC vacancies will he get to fill in his first term?

[ProgressiveModerate]

How long can McConnel get away with pulling Merrick Garlands? The senate is so tilted in teh GOPs favor that he doesn't really risk much from it. Even if 2020 is another blue wave year, the senate is "tossup" at best, and in 2022, if Biden wins, Ds are unlikely to gain senate seats unless there's a new state.

[We Live in Black and White]

If Biden wins, he's probably going to pull at least a narrow Senate majority with him, so prooobably a good few.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Biden wins, he's probably going to pull at least a narrow Senate majority with him, so prooobably a good few.

I don't know if this is necessarily true. By default, if Biden wins, Ds will likely pick up CO and AZ, and lose AL, bringing them to 48 seats. If Biden wins, there's about a 7/10 chance NC is close enough or flips so that cunningham can win. Biden needs to be winning ME by a pretty large margin fro Collins to lose, beacuse even though the left hates her, moderates are still ok with her, and in a state with RCV like ME, it's better to be more of a centrists. MT could flip but that'll be out of Biden's control if it does. AK could flip, but again that'll be up to Gross, and not how well Biden is doing nationally. I would say 50/50 chnace Biden gets a D senate if he wins

[Orser67]

Probably/hopefully at least 2 (Ginsburg+Breyer) if Democrats take the Senate; there's a non-zero chance that one of the three older conservative judges will leave office during Biden's tenure (Thomas will be 76 at the end of Biden's hypothetical first term, Alito 74, and Roberts 69). Though I don't think it's a given that Democrats could get perfect party unity for Supreme Court nominations; e.g. it's not hard to imagine Manchin refusing to go along with a more liberal nominee.

If Republicans hold the Senate, who knows.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Ginsburg is done and Breyer retires eventually so he can have a Dem replace him, probably in 2026

[rhg2052]

2, Ginsburg and Breyer.

[NewYorkExpress]

Republicans will refuse to fill any seats Biden can fill, and they'll likely reinstate the fillibuster in the lame duck if it looks like they'll lose the Senate, so Biden can't fill a cabinet either (they just fillibuster everyone into oblivion.)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Republicans will refuse to fill any seats Biden can fill, and they'll likely reinstate the fillibuster in the lame duck if it looks like they'll lose the Senate, so Biden can't fill a cabinet either (they just fillibuster everyone into oblivion.)

The filibuster will be removed if reinstated in the lame duck. It survived by convention upholding it during periods of genuine political power (as opposed to lame duck sessions).

The only way Biden gets filibustered into oblivion is if Republicans retain the Senate.

[Non Swing Voter]

Republicans will refuse to fill any seats Biden can fill, and they'll likely reinstate the fillibuster in the lame duck if it looks like they'll lose the Senate, so Biden can't fill a cabinet either (they just fillibuster everyone into oblivion.)

They're not that stupid.  They're seasoned cheaters.  They cheat at the margins.  That kind of cheating would spurn a serious backlash and demographics are already moving against them.  Hopefully they just accept their status as a minority party and provide checks where they can.

[The Mamdani Virus]

2, Ginsberg and Breyer both retire, Ginsberg would retire during Biden's first term, and I think Breyer would stick around until Democrats looked like they would lose the Senate majority (like Kennedy did when it looked like the Senate could flip in 2018).

Also at this point, it looks likelier than not that Democrats win the Senate, but if they don't Biden's administration will probably find some way to flip Murkowksi and/or Collins (if she's still in the Senate), to support the nominee. Given that currently a D+1 Senate change at the very least looks likely (+CO, AZ -AL), flipping these two Senators would allow Biden to get his nominees through even with Republican control. Murkowski and Collins indicated that they supported votes on Garland and Republicans probably won't leave a seat for four years, part of the reason for the refusal to hold a vote on Garland was that it would ideologically shift the court, replacing Ginsberg and Breyer with Democrats, would not. Also I could also see Romney at least calling for a floor vote in the event of another Garland scenario, even if he would oppose the nominee. But even in a Republican Senate, Biden would get these nominees confirmed.

[Ferguson97]

2, Ginsburg and Breyer.

[South Dakota Democrat]

2, Ginsberg and Breyer both retire, Ginsberg would retire during Biden's first term, and I think Breyer would stick around until Democrats looked like they would lose the Senate majority (like Kennedy did when it looked like the Senate could flip in 2018).

Also at this point, it looks likelier than not that Democrats win the Senate, but if they don't Biden's administration will probably find some way to flip Murkowksi and/or Collins (if she's still in the Senate), to support the nominee. Given that currently a D+1 Senate change at the very least looks likely (+CO, AZ -AL), flipping these two Senators would allow Biden to get his nominees through even with Republican control. Murkowski and Collins indicated that they supported votes on Garland and Republicans probably won't leave a seat for four years, part of the reason for the refusal to hold a vote on Garland was that it would ideologically shift the court, replacing Ginsberg and Breyer with Democrats, would not. Also I could also see Romney at least calling for a floor vote in the event of another Garland scenario, even if he would oppose the nominee. But even in a Republican Senate, Biden would get these nominees confirmed.

Even if they flip Collins and Murkowski, if Rs are in the majority, McConnell would just simply refuse to hold hearings/a vote.

[You Don’t Mess With The Zohran]

I think just one, not sure Breyer retires quickly enough to get someone in before the 2022 midterms. Hopefully RBG and Breyer retire Day 1 on the administration as that's the only chance we can get to stop the right-wing onslaught.

Alas it's hard to see any of the Republicans retiring any time soon - at least not until the late 2020's, by which time it's going to be hard to get someone through.

[cwh2018]

At least one as Ginsburg will have to retire no matter what due to age, and Breyer will almost certainly retire if the Democrats have the senate.  Breyer turns 82 in August so he will need to retire during the 4 year period.  He could retire after 2024 election but then he needs the democrats to win and have the senate after being in control of the White House for 4 years.  None of the GOP appointees will retire unless due to grave health problems or death.  Thomas is the oldest conservative and he is only about to turn 72.  The 5 conservatives can rule for the next 8 years. It could be the most consequential period for the court since 62-69.  It is why the GOP rammed through Kavanaugh-they have the 5 they want on the court.

[Former President tack50]

0 because the GOP senate does not let him fill any vacancies

[Abolish ICE]

At least one, but possibly two.  I think Breyer will retire.  I suspect Ginsberg will too, but I actually get the sense that she wants to be a lifer and might not leave until she...well...dies, although that may've changed in light of the Trump situation.

[Chickpeas]

Two. Ginsburg in 2021 and Breyer in 2022. Both with judges aged between 45 - 55 ready to serve for the next 30+ years.     

[Donerail]

Ginsburg and Breyer ought to be locks to retire, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they stayed on until they die — neither retired in 2014, when they were 81 and 75, respectively, so I don’t think they’re necessarily making this decision with a purely strategic lens.

Alas it's hard to see any of the Republicans retiring any time soon - at least not until the late 2020's, by which time it's going to be hard to get someone through.

Thomas isn't that old, but he does kinda look like sh*t in his recent public appearances. Probably would retire in a second Trump term, might give Biden another opening regardless.

[MarkD]

Two, and why is this thread posted in the Congressional Elections board?