Could 2020 senate be 2012 all over again?

[ProgressiveModerate]

In 2012, the GOP had a lot of easy targets in the senate purely based on the map but ran a bunch of flawed canidates in many races, such as IN, MO, ND, FL, that maybe they could've otherwise won in. So far, in the 2020 senate election, Republicans are screwing up on a map that at face value allows them to easily retain control. In CO, a blue state that does not like Trump, Cory Gardner isn't even bothering trying to win at this point. In AZ, Ds scored a strong recruit, and McSally seems to be polling really, really bad. In ME, everyday, Susan Collins shoots herself in the foot, when she probably could've handily won if she had gone down a more independent route because of RCV. In MT, D got another great recruit, and Daines seems to be asleep at the wheel. They might literally nominate Kobach for KS-Sen, which would be a disaster. The GOP had pickup opportunities in MN and NH, but have not been taking those races seriously. Not saying the GOP will lose senate control; I still think they are favored, but it seems like this senate cycle has been pretty downhill for them thus far overall. Could this be a repeat of 2012, in the sense that Ds win most remotely competative races, amny in part to poor GOP canidates, and end up with a lot of Ds in Trump states?

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

This is the same Senate map of 2008, that got Ds a 9 seat Senate majority. If Dems want to break filibuster,  they neer at least 53 seats and IA, GA, MT and KS will get them there. With longshots in AK, KY and SC

[YE]

If current polling is to be taken literally, yes but keep in mind we are more polarized now than eight years ago and I’m expecting polls to become more in line with recent #trends around September.

[Orser67]

I think the most likely model is probably 2008, where Democrats made several pickups in states Obama won (except in AK). The primary thing that stands out about 2012 was the large number of Democratic incumbents who ran ahead of Obama.

With that said, I'm not ruling out the possibility of Senate Democrats winning some Trump states, especially in MT and KS.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are leading or tied in MT and KS and Bollier and Bullock can win. TX, SC and GA are also possible due to fact Biden's lead is so large over Trump and can win those states at Prez level.

[Epaminondas]

2020 is not shaping up to be a repeat of anything.
2016 may have been reminiscent of 2000, and 2010 of 1994, but what was 2008 a repeat of? or 2012? or 2018?

The primary thing that stands out about 2012 was the large number of Democratic incumbents who ran ahead of Obama.

It was prominently Democratic candidate in Deep GOP territory who ran far ahead (Heitkamp, Manchin, McCaskill, Tester, Donnelly + Klobuchar in MI)

In Obama won territory, Dems ran about 2 points ahead of the presidential ticket, and Heinrich in NM even ran behind.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Given that Democrats are playing much more offense than defense this year, whereas it was the opposite in 2012, I think 2008 might be a better comparison if polling doesn’t get any better for Republicans.

[politicallefty]

Given that Democrats are playing much more offense than defense this year, whereas it was the opposite in 2012, I think 2008 might be a better comparison if polling doesn’t get any better for Republicans.

That was my thought as well. If 2020 was a repeat of 2012, it would be Trump winning reelection and somehow Republicans holding steady or gaining seats in the Senate. It's still early of course, but things do look more on track for something closer to 2008 (i.e. the Presidency changes parties along with a significant loss of seats for the incumbent party).

[Orser67]

2020 is not shaping up to be a repeat of anything.
2016 may have been reminiscent of 2000, and 2010 of 1994, but what was 2008 a repeat of? or 2012? or 2018?

The primary thing that stands out about 2012 was the large number of Democratic incumbents who ran ahead of Obama.

It was prominently Democratic candidate in Deep GOP territory who ran far ahead (Heitkamp, Manchin, McCaskill, Tester, Donnelly + Klobuchar in MI)

In Obama won territory, Dems ran about 2 points ahead of the presidential ticket, and Heinrich in NM even ran behind.

Yeah, that's a fair point in terms of margins. What I was really getting at was that incumbent Senate Democrats won numerous seats in Romney territory, and also generally dominated in battleground states in terms of actually winning races.

I might have missed a couple seats, but from some quick counting, Senate Dems won every state Obama won by at least ten points, 7 of the 8 states Obama won by less than ten points (and that had Senate races), 1 of the 2 states Romney won by less than ten points, and four of the ten states that Romney won by at least ten points. I think it'll be a long time before one party once again does so well in states that lean so strongly towards the other party at the presidential level.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

There is talk now that Ds may try to not get a 50 seat Senate, but a Supermajority Senate to push thru radical change and push thru PR and DC statehood and change the number of judges to 11, not just 9. This was what Feinstein said, that Ds will get back at the Rs for mustering thru a radical R CRT. We cant rely on the Thomas CRT to put thru the reforms that is needed like ending Citizens United and immigration reform. Dems must have their CRT too. So Biden may get 2 additional judges aside from Ginsberg to get a liberal SCOTUS.

TX, SC, IA, GA, MT, KS, AL, AK and now MS can move D. Hyde is only 7 pts ahead over Espy, when MS is becoming front and center of Confederate flag