How would the losers of the 2014 Senate elections be doing now?

[Left Wing]

Of the candidates who lost by less than ten in 2014, how would their re-election chances be looking now and who would be their opponents?
These candidates are:
Ed Gillespie
Kay Hagan
Mark Udall
Mark Begich
Scott Brown
Michelle Nunn
Bruce Braley

[Roll Roons]

Gillespie would be as DOA as Gardner.
Bob Buffington, Hagan and Nunn would all be slight favorites, but not safe. All three races would be rated Lean D.
Udall would be safe.
Begich would be in a pure tossup. The state is just so unpredictable.
Brown's race would be in a tossup, maybe tilt D.

The challengers would be:
VA: McAuliffe
NC: Holding or Walker
CO: Idk. Not that it would matter much.
AK: Hard to say. Probably a random state legislator
NH: Annie Kuster?
GA: Doug Collins
IA: See Alaska.

[😥]

Ed Gillespie: opponent - Terry McAuliffe, Safe D (flip)
Kay Hagan: opponent - Mark Walker, Lean/Likely D
Mark Udall: opponent - some random state legislator, Safe D
Mark Begich: opponent- some random state legislator, Tossup/Tilt D
Scott Brown: opponent - John Lynch, Likely D (flip)
Michelle Nunn: opponent - Doug Collins, Pure Tossup
Bruce Braley: opponent - Pat Grassley, Tossup/Tilt D

[NewYorkExpress]

Ed Gillespie: Opponent: Jennifer Carroll Foy: Likely D (flip)

Kay Hagan: Dies in 2019, as IRL. Roy Cooper appoints Anthony Foxx, his opponent is Pat McCrory. Lean D.

Mark Udall: Opponent is Mike Coffman. Likely D

Mark Begich: Opponent is Sarah Palin. Tossup/Tilt R (flip)

Scott Brown: Opponent is Chris Pappas. Lean D (flip)

Michelle Nunn: Opponent is Casey Cagle: Tossup/Tilt R (flip)

Bruce Braley: Opponent is Steve King. Likely D

[Left Wing]

Ed Gillespie: Opponent: Jennifer Carroll Foy: Likely D (flip)

Kay Hagan: Dies in 2019, as IRL.

The butterfly effect might cause her not to be hiking that day.

[Orwell]

Ed Gillespie: Opponent: Jennifer Carroll Foy: Likely D (flip)

Kay Hagan: Dies in 2019, as IRL.

The butterfly effect might cause her not to be hiking that day.

Wait Kay Hagan died?

[NewYorkExpress]

Ed Gillespie: Opponent: Jennifer Carroll Foy: Likely D (flip)

Kay Hagan: Dies in 2019, as IRL.

The butterfly effect might cause her not to be hiking that day.

Wait Kay Hagan died?

Yeah, she died last October.

As I was taking a leave of absence then...was there a thread on it?

[S019]

Ed Gillespie: Safe D (FLIP) (if he runs his campaign anything like he's 2017 Gov campaign (i.e. the dogwhistling, etc. he's done for, also given Trump is at the top of the ticket, no Republican is winning VA)), opponent: Jennifer Caroll-Foy
Kay Hagan: Lean D (doesn't die as I doubt she's hiking, if she's in the Senate), opponent: Mark Walker
Mark Udall: Safe D (This one was never voting Republican in 2020), opponent: Ken Buck
Mark Begich: Tilt D (very competitive, but the oil market crash should hurt Republicans enough to lift him), opponent: no idea, random state legislator
Scott Brown: Likely D (FLIP) (hitching himself to Trump wouldn't end well in elastic New Hampshire, and given the current national environment, he'd be in lots of trouble), opponent: Chris Pappas
Michelle Nunn: Tossup (comes down to how well she does in metro-Atlanta, even if she won in 2014, by doing well downstate, much of that support would collapse in 2020, and she'd have to do well in metro-Atlanta), opponent: Brad Raffensperger
Bruce Braley: Lean R (FLIP) (he was a bad campaigner in 2014, and would be a bad one in 2020, Greenfield has actually ran a somewhat inspiring campaign, while Braley's campaign was widely criticized. Also Iowa would still probably vote for Trump, which should be enough to doom him, given polarization), opponent: Adam Gregg

[President Biden Democrat]

This is interesting. Below are there opponents and my ratings if this was to happen.

VA: Gillespie (I) vs. McAuliffe (Likely D - flip)
- Former Democratic Governor of Virginia McAuliffe runs and wins the primary and later the general election easily.

NC: Cunningham (I) vs. Meadows (Tilt D)
- Hagan dies still and Cooper picks Cunningham as senator. The race is very close, similar to our TL and Cunningham is able to win in a fought out and contested race

CO: Hickenlooper vs. Buck (Likely D)
- Udall retires in 2020 and Hickenlooper still runs in this time and wins by a likely margin.

AK: Begich (I) vs. Giessel (Lean R - flip)
- Begich runs for re-election in Alaska. The primary is contested between former Alaska Governor Parnell and other candidates including tea party favorite Joe Miller. Parnell wins the primary and goes onto win the general election against Begich.

NH: Brown (I) vs. Ostern (Lean D - flip)
- Scott Brown, who was the senator of Massachusetts from 2010 to 2012, decides run again for a second term as senator from New Hampshire. Ostern, the Democratic nominee for Governor in 2016, runs for Senate in 2020 and goes onto win the primary and the senate election against Brown.

GA: Nunn (I) vs. Collins. (Lean R - flip)
- Nunn runs for re-election in Georgia. Doug Collins, runs for Senate and goes onto beat Nunn in a close election.

IA: Braley (I) vs. Ernst (Tilt D)
- In 2014, Braley wins by a margin less than 1 percent, a tilt margin. Ernst, the Republican nominee who won by a likely margin in our TL, runs again in 2020. She wins the primary against various Republican candidates including notorious racist Steve King and other candidates as well. Braley goes onto beat Ernst by a margin less than 1 percent again in 2020.

[MATTROSE94]

This is interesting. Below are there opponents and my ratings if this was to happen.

VA: Gillespie (I) vs. McAuliffe (Likely D - flip)
- Former Democratic Governor of Virginia McAuliffe runs and wins the primary and later the general election easily.

NC: Cunningham (I) vs. Meadows (Tilt D)
- Hagan dies still and Cooper picks Cunningham as senator. The race is very close, similar to our TL and Cunningham is able to win in a fought out and contested race

CO: Hickenlooper vs. Buck (Likely D)
- Udall retires in 2020 and Hickenlooper still runs in this time and wins by a likely margin.

AK: Begich (I) vs. Giessel (Lean R - flip)
- Begich runs for re-election in Alaska. The primary is contested between former Alaska Governor Parnell and other candidates including tea party favorite Joe Miller. Parnell wins the primary and goes onto win the general election against Begich.

NH: Brown (I) vs. Ostern (Lean D - flip)
- Scott Brown, who was the senator of Massachusetts from 2010 to 2012, decides run again for a second term as senator from New Hampshire. Ostern, the Democratic nominee for Governor in 2016, runs for Senate in 2020 and goes onto win the primary and the senate election against Brown.

GA: Nunn (I) vs. Collins. (Lean R - flip)
- Nunn runs for re-election in Georgia. Doug Collins, runs for Senate and goes onto beat Nunn in a close election.

IA: Braley (I) vs. Ernst (Tilt D)
- In 2014, Braley wins by a margin less than 1 percent, a tilt margin. Ernst, the Republican nominee who won by a likely margin in our TL, runs again in 2020. She wins the primary against various Republican candidates including notorious racist Steve King and other candidates as well. Braley goes onto beat Ernst by a margin less than 1 percent again in 2020.

Seems about right, though I have Michelle Nunn winning re-election by a slim margin, Mark Begich losing to Sarah Palin, and Bruce Braley losing to Joni Ernst.

[President Biden Democrat]

This is interesting. Below are there opponents and my ratings if this was to happen.

VA: Gillespie (I) vs. McAuliffe (Likely D - flip)
- Former Democratic Governor of Virginia McAuliffe runs and wins the primary and later the general election easily.

NC: Cunningham (I) vs. Meadows (Tilt D)
- Hagan dies still and Cooper picks Cunningham as senator. The race is very close, similar to our TL and Cunningham is able to win in a fought out and contested race

CO: Hickenlooper vs. Buck (Likely D)
- Udall retires in 2020 and Hickenlooper still runs in this time and wins by a likely margin.

AK: Begich (I) vs. Giessel (Lean R - flip)
- Begich runs for re-election in Alaska. The primary is contested between former Alaska Governor Parnell and other candidates including tea party favorite Joe Miller. Parnell wins the primary and goes onto win the general election against Begich.

NH: Brown (I) vs. Ostern (Lean D - flip)
- Scott Brown, who was the senator of Massachusetts from 2010 to 2012, decides run again for a second term as senator from New Hampshire. Ostern, the Democratic nominee for Governor in 2016, runs for Senate in 2020 and goes onto win the primary and the senate election against Brown.

GA: Nunn (I) vs. Collins. (Lean R - flip)
- Nunn runs for re-election in Georgia. Doug Collins, runs for Senate and goes onto beat Nunn in a close election.

IA: Braley (I) vs. Ernst (Tilt D)
- In 2014, Braley wins by a margin less than 1 percent, a tilt margin. Ernst, the Republican nominee who won by a likely margin in our TL, runs again in 2020. She wins the primary against various Republican candidates including notorious racist Steve King and other candidates as well. Braley goes onto beat Ernst by a margin less than 1 percent again in 2020.

Seems about right, though I have Michelle Nunn winning re-election by a slim margin, Mark Begich losing to Sarah Palin, and Bruce Braley losing to Joni Ernst.

Eh. I don't think Nunn would win re-election, but it definitely would be very close, as the GA Senate Election will be in our TL in 2020.

I don't think Palin would run but if she did, I don't know what would happen. Overall, I think almost any Republican candidate would win but you never know!

[Dr. MB]

Mark Begich: I'm gonna say he hangs on cause Alaska is a weird state
Mark Udall: Obvious win
Michelle Nunn: Wins. Might go to a runoff though
Bruce Braley: Probably goes down but it's closer than irl
Scott Brown: Wins because New Hampshire is also a weird state and we saw what happened with Sununu+the state legislature
Kay Hagan: Wins by about the same margin as Roy Cooper did
Ed Gillespie: Loses, not too close but he outperforms the top of the ticket

Adding in a couple more I guess

Shenna Bellows (Maine): If she somehow won in 2014 she'd hang on this year too
Natalie Tennant (West Virginia): Loses, probably by double digits
Greg Orman (Kansas): Probably acts as the most annoyingly "bipartisan" senator ever if elected. If he caucused with the Republicans in 2014 the Dems might field a challenger and vice versa. Probably ends up with a plurality R win.
Mike McFadden (Minnesota): Loses
Amanda Curtis (Montana): Loses but it's pretty narrow
Allan Weh (New Mexico): Loses but also closer than expected
Jim Oberweis (Illinois): Loses and it ain't close