1948: Eleanor Roosevelt the Democratic nominee
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  1948: Eleanor Roosevelt the Democratic nominee
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President Johnson
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« on: June 09, 2020, 01:52:55 PM »

I think this is an interesting thought: What if Democrats nominated Eleanor Roosevelt for president in 1948? Say Harry Truman declines to run for a full term due to low polling numbers. Would Eleanor have a chance to be elected almost 70 years before Hillary ran? Any other events remain unchanged.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #1 on: June 09, 2020, 02:31:32 PM »

Eleanor Roosevelt was very popular, but I can't see her winning the Democratic nomination in an era of party bosses.

I imagine open sexism would hand Dewey a comfortable victory.
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Continential
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« Reply #2 on: June 09, 2020, 03:01:59 PM »

Eleanor Roosevelt was very popular, but I can't see her winning the Democratic nomination in an era of party bosses.

I imagine open sexism would hand Dewey a comfortable victory.
Eleanor was loved by Americans, but the South would revolt in bigger numbers.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #3 on: June 09, 2020, 03:21:14 PM »
« Edited: June 09, 2020, 03:24:37 PM by Alben Barkley »

Eleanor Roosevelt was very popular, but I can't see her winning the Democratic nomination in an era of party bosses.

I imagine open sexism would hand Dewey a comfortable victory.
Eleanor was loved by Americans, but the South would revolt in bigger numbers.

Would it matter though, since Truman won without them? Also, the West may be more open to a woman candidate so she could still win those states, and she may have been more likely to win New York. Likely to be fewer defections to Wallace, and without those Truman would have won it as it was.

Possible winning map for her, even losing CA, IA, OH, and VA:


I don't think GA or most of the other Southern states that didn't defect were ready to flip yet, and the Roosevets' personal connection to GA (Warm Springs) might have helped a bit too. Even if Eleanor lost like 10 points compared to Truman in some of these states, to Thurmond or Dewey, she still would have won them.

She could not, however, survive losing Illinois in addition to CA and OH, even while winning NY.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #4 on: June 20, 2020, 05:22:04 PM »

If we are talking about women in politics in that era, it might be worth remembering that Margaret Chase Smith was mentioned as a possible vice presidential candidate for Eisenhower in 1952. I wonder how a Vice President Chase Smith vs Senator Kennedy 1960 might have played out (although I believe that sexism >>> anti-Catholicism)
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #5 on: June 21, 2020, 12:30:36 AM »

If we are talking about women in politics in that era, it might be worth remembering that Margaret Chase Smith was mentioned as a possible vice presidential candidate for Eisenhower in 1952. I wonder how a Vice President Chase Smith vs Senator Kennedy 1960 might have played out (although I believe that sexism >>> anti-Catholicism)

Margaret Chase Smith made nuttier comments than Goldwater about using nukes — she called for a preemptive strike directly against the USSR at one point. That would have hurt her even more than her sex I think. Although that comment may have come after Kennedy was elected. Certainly would have been a bloodbath if she won the nomination in 1964, as she actually tried to do. I think in that situation, LBJ wins every state but MS and AL, and even they probably vote for unpledged electors again or Wallace or something. (They would have no reason to vote for Smith as she was a moderate on Civil Rights.) She would have been wiped out.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #6 on: June 21, 2020, 10:15:22 AM »

If we are talking about women in politics in that era, it might be worth remembering that Margaret Chase Smith was mentioned as a possible vice presidential candidate for Eisenhower in 1952. I wonder how a Vice President Chase Smith vs Senator Kennedy 1960 might have played out (although I believe that sexism >>> anti-Catholicism)

Margaret Chase Smith made nuttier comments than Goldwater about using nukes — she called for a preemptive strike directly against the USSR at one point. That would have hurt her even more than her sex I think. Although that comment may have come after Kennedy was elected. Certainly would have been a bloodbath if she won the nomination in 1964, as she actually tried to do. I think in that situation, LBJ wins every state but MS and AL, and even they probably vote for unpledged electors again or Wallace or something. (They would have no reason to vote for Smith as she was a moderate on Civil Rights.) She would have been wiped out.


Wow. I did not know about the nukes comments. I have searched for them and it seems that she said that during Kennedy's tenure.
Anyway, in 1964 I believe that every Republican would have been wiped out, even Rockefeller simply would have lost in a less embarrassing way. And also, yeah, with a pro-civil rights Republican, George Wallace would likely have done what he did in 1968 and most Goldwater votes in the South would have shifted to Wallace instead.
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