IA-Civiqs/: tie
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  IA-Civiqs/: tie
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Author Topic: IA-Civiqs/: tie  (Read 1932 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« on: June 09, 2020, 07:30:00 AM »

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_IA_banner_book_2020_06_ony3r9.pdf

Civiqs/Daily Kos
865 registered voters
June 6-8
MoE 3.7%

Trump 46%
Biden 46%
Someone else 7%
Unsure 1%

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: June 09, 2020, 07:33:44 AM »

Honestly, seems about right.

IA and GA are tied tossups right now IMO, maybe with IA being a slight Trump lean. But only a *TILT*
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JRP1994
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« Reply #2 on: June 09, 2020, 07:52:24 AM »

Decent sign for Wisconsin
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Georgia Democrat in 2023
mollybecky
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« Reply #3 on: June 09, 2020, 07:57:56 AM »

Like Texas, looks enticing for now but not likely in November.  Democrats need to put some effort here--to help at the downstream ballots (notably Theresa Greenfield).
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: June 09, 2020, 08:06:16 AM »

Like Texas, looks enticing for now but not likely in November.  Democrats need to put some effort here--to help at the downstream ballots (notably Theresa Greenfield).

Why is it "not likely in November"? What points to that?
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Brittain33
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« Reply #5 on: June 09, 2020, 08:10:23 AM »

Like Texas, looks enticing for now but not likely in November.  Democrats need to put some effort here--to help at the downstream ballots (notably Theresa Greenfield).

Why is it "not likely in November"? What points to that?

This seems like a uniquely bad time for Trump between economy, COVID, and active protests. I think things will still be very bad in November, but Iím not sure heíll seem as under siege as he is now.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #6 on: June 09, 2020, 08:17:33 AM »

Lean R---->Tilt R
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: June 09, 2020, 08:33:19 AM »

IA has 3 D Congressional districts,  it's not Safe R anylonger and look out Grassley, JD Scholten is vying for your seat in 2022, he is no Patty Judge of 2016, if he is elected in 2020 in IA 4

If JD Scholten and Greenfield win and Dems win IA in 2020, it will force Grassley into retirement, rather than run against Scholten
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Buzz
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« Reply #8 on: June 09, 2020, 09:24:59 AM »

This is probably best case scenario for Biden and the floor for Trump.  Still easily a Lean R state and closer to likely R than Tossup
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redjohn
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« Reply #9 on: June 09, 2020, 09:39:15 AM »

A tie in IA would be consistent with a 7-8 point national lead for Biden. IA still obviously leans R this year (DMR poll had Trump up by 10 a couple months ago), but Trump winning IA by less than 5 points is a major red flag for his campaign. If he ends up winning IA by less than 5, he loses the election.
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Georgia Democrat in 2023
mollybecky
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« Reply #10 on: June 09, 2020, 09:40:25 AM »

Like Texas, looks enticing for now but not likely in November.  Democrats need to put some effort here--to help at the downstream ballots (notably Theresa Greenfield).

Why is it "not likely in November"? What points to that?

I could give you plenty of reasons, the most likely being that both states have significant Republican leanings.    And we're in early June, not November.  The numbers so far are encouraging, but a lot needs to be done--mostly hard work and a unified effort.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #11 on: June 09, 2020, 09:48:46 AM »

Like Texas, looks enticing for now but not likely in November.  Democrats need to put some effort here--to help at the downstream ballots (notably Theresa Greenfield).

Why is it "not likely in November"? What points to that?

After Iowa's past three cycle of burning Democrats with favorable early polling, it's definitely fair to be skeptical of it playing this cat and mouse game with us again.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #12 on: June 09, 2020, 10:02:57 AM »

Like Texas, looks enticing for now but not likely in November.  Democrats need to put some effort here--to help at the downstream ballots (notably Theresa Greenfield).

Why is it "not likely in November"? What points to that?

After Iowa's past three cycle of burning Democrats with favorable early polling, it's definitely fair to be skeptical of it playing this cat and mouse game with us again.
Well, this is not just Iowa. This is consistent with pretty much everything we've seen over the last few days, outside of Zogby.
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SN2903
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« Reply #13 on: June 09, 2020, 10:30:49 AM »

Daily Kos . LOL
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #14 on: June 09, 2020, 02:19:57 PM »

These IA polls are beyond awful for Trump and point to a 400+ EV win for Biden, but itís pretty telling that Democrats canít lead in this "volatile swing state" in an environment like this.
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Donald Trump Is A Worthless Tub Of Lard
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #15 on: June 09, 2020, 02:23:58 PM »

If Biden is truly at 36% and 42% in safe R states like OK and TN than likely R states like IA are definitely tossups at this point. Probably won't stay that way though.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #16 on: June 09, 2020, 02:46:13 PM »

Bad news for trump continues for yet another day.
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Sbane
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« Reply #17 on: June 09, 2020, 04:43:43 PM »

Doubt Biden gets much more than about 46-47 here but that's still good news for Biden in WI and MN.
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SN2903
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« Reply #18 on: June 09, 2020, 04:50:27 PM »

Doubt Biden gets much more than about 46-47 here but that's still good news for Biden in WI and MN.
Trump wins Iowa by 8 to 13.
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Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« Reply #19 on: June 09, 2020, 04:55:51 PM »

Doubt Biden gets much more than about 46-47 here but that's still good news for Biden in WI and MN.
Trump wins Iowa by 8 to 13.
Trump is tied here with identical party ID to 2016 and the poll being conducted entirely after the jobs numbers came out lol
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Sbane
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« Reply #20 on: June 09, 2020, 05:04:15 PM »

Doubt Biden gets much more than about 46-47 here but that's still good news for Biden in WI and MN.
Trump wins Iowa by 8 to 13.

Is that according to a poll conducted of your gut flora?
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #21 on: June 09, 2020, 05:14:34 PM »


Looks like you finally got that post-June 5th poll you were waiting for. Congrats!
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #22 on: June 09, 2020, 06:05:31 PM »


Yet the polling company itself is one of the more consistently bearish ones for Biden. So what does that tell you?
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #23 on: June 09, 2020, 06:08:14 PM »

New Poll: Iowa President by Civiqs on 2020-06-08

Summary: D: 46%, R: 46%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Hammy
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« Reply #24 on: June 09, 2020, 07:59:08 PM »

Normally I'd say this is meaningless given the number of undecideds, but given this is supposedly Safe R Iowa this is definitely not good news for Trump.
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