TN - SSRS/Vanderbilt University: Trump + 9
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  TN - SSRS/Vanderbilt University: Trump + 9		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: TN - SSRS/Vanderbilt University: Trump + 9  (Read 2101 times)
Devout Centrist
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« Reply #25 on: June 09, 2020, 01:25:27 PM »
Word to the wise: Take any Vandy poll and double the margin
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100% pro-life no matter what
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« Reply #26 on: June 09, 2020, 02:07:05 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on June 09, 2020, 11:28:07 AM
Important:



So let's assume undecideds break for Trump. Still only Trump +16 (58-42), a 10% decrease from his win in 2016 (Trump +26)

True, but it was also just Trump +9 then.

Tennessee was alongside the Dakotas for the largest polling miss in 2016.  The final RCP average was only Trump +10 or +11 (I think RCP even had it just Likely R), when the result was Trump +26.

Not many polls had Lee winning by 21 or Blackburn by 11 in 2018, either.
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Holmes
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« Reply #27 on: June 09, 2020, 02:09:41 PM »
Quote from: Pro-Life Single Issue Voter on June 09, 2020, 02:07:05 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on June 09, 2020, 11:28:07 AM
Important:



So let's assume undecideds break for Trump. Still only Trump +16 (58-42), a 10% decrease from his win in 2016 (Trump +26)

True, but it was also just Trump +9 then.

Tennessee was alongside the Dakotas for the largest polling miss in 2016.  The final RCP average was only Trump +10 or +11 (I think RCP even had it just Likely R), when the result was Trump +26.

Not many polls had Lee winning by 21 or Blackburn by 11 in 2018, either.

That's basically what Miles is saying. Tennessee polls recently have underestimated Republicans but got the Democratic support correct.
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Red Willow
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« Reply #28 on: June 09, 2020, 02:10:40 PM »
Quote from: Pro-Life Single Issue Voter on June 09, 2020, 02:07:05 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on June 09, 2020, 11:28:07 AM
Important:



So let's assume undecideds break for Trump. Still only Trump +16 (58-42), a 10% decrease from his win in 2016 (Trump +26)

True, but it was also just Trump +9 then.

Tennessee was alongside the Dakotas for the largest polling miss in 2016.  The final RCP average was only Trump +10 or +11 (I think RCP even had it just Likely R), when the result was Trump +26.

Not many polls had Lee winning by 21 or Blackburn by 11 in 2018, either.

The margin isn't the issue here. Yes, the 2016 polls had lower margins for Trump but Hillary's numbers were right, all between 31-36%. No doubt Trump will win by much more than 9 points but if Biden is truly around 42% that's significant.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #29 on: June 09, 2020, 02:57:54 PM »

I can't believe I'm agreeing with SN, but yeah this poll is too old... all of the protests happened AFTER this poll was taken.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #30 on: June 09, 2020, 04:00:49 PM »
Trump up 9 in Tennessee? That bodes ill for him nationwide.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #31 on: June 09, 2020, 06:07:19 PM »
Trump will definitely do better here, but it really does seem like he peaked in numerous states back in 2016 and may not replicate it.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #32 on: June 09, 2020, 06:10:27 PM »
New Poll: Tennessee President by SSRS on 2020-05-22

Summary: D: 42%, R: 51%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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