Aggregate Electoral Map of the Last 25 Elections

[OSR stands with Israel]

Democrats 283
Republicans 255

How shading works:

If Voted for party 13 times or less : 30%
If voted for party 14-15 times: 40%
If Votes for party 16-17 times: 50%
If Voted for party 18-19 times: 60%
If Votes for party 20-21 times: 70%
If Votes for party more than 22-24 times: 80%
If voted for party everytime: 90%


For AK, HI , DC i will just use the corresponding % to see what shading to use


How each state voted in past 25 elections:

Alabama: 12 GOP, 10 Dem, 3 Third Party
Alaska: 14 GOP , 1 Dem
Arizona : 19 GOP 6 Dem
Arkansas: 15 Dem , 9 GOP, 1 Third Party
California: 13 Dem , 12 GOP
Colorado: 17 GOP , 8 Dem
Connecticut: 13 Dem, 12 GOP
Deleware: 12 Dem, 12 GOP
DC: Voted Dem every time
Florida: 13 GOP , 12 Dem
Georgia: 14 Dem , 10 GOP , 1 Third Party
Hawaii: 13 Dem, 2 GOP
Idaho: 19 GOP , 6 Dem
Illionis: 14 Dem, 11 GOP
Indiana: 21 GOP, 4 Dem
Iowa: 15 GOP , 10 Dem
Kansas: 22 GOP, 3 Dem
Kentucky: 14 GOP , 11 Dem
Lousiana: 12 Dem, 11 GOP
Maine: 16 GOP, 9 Dem
Maryland: 16 Dem 9 GOP
Massachusetts: 19 Dem 6 GOP
Michigan: 13 GOP 12 Dem
Minnesota: 19 Dem 6 GOP
Mississippi: 12 GOP 10 Dem 3 Third Party
Missouri: 14 GOP 11 Dem
Montana : 18 GOP 7 Dem
Nebraska: 22 GOP 3 Dem
Nevada: 13 GOP 12 Dem
New Hampshire: 18 GOP 7 Dem
New Jersey: 14 Dem 11 GOP
New Mexico: 13 Dem 12 GOP
New York: 17 Dem 8 GOP
North Carolina: 13 Dem 12 GOP
North Dakota: 22 GOP 3 Dem
Ohio: 15 GOP 10 Dem
Oklahoma: 18 GOP 7 Dem
Oregon: 13 Dem 12 GOP
Pennsylvania: 13 Dem 12 GOP
Rhode Island: 19 Dem 6 GOP
South Carolina: 13 GOP 11 Dem 1 3rd Party
South Dakota: 22 GOP 3 Dem
Tennessee: 15 GOP 10 Dem
Texas: 14 GOP 11 Dem
Utah: 19 GOP 6 Dem
Vermont: 17 GOP 8 Dem
Virginia: 14 GOP 11 Dem
Washington: 15 Dem 10 GOP
West Virginia: 14 Dem 11 GOP
Wisconsin: 13 Dem 11 GOP 1 Third Party
Wyoming: 20 GOP 5 Dem

[OSR stands with Israel]

John King: The Election had many close states but none was closer than California which many people had thought had gone narrowly in the Republican column due to what we are calling an extremely strong middle counting bias from around 32% in to around 72% in which favors Republicans  but unfortunately for the Republicans the Democrats were able to counter that as California has an equally strong late counting bias in favor of the Democrats which means elections are determined here by the first third of the vote in which narrowly favored the Democrats and thus gave them the state and the election

[harpercanuck]

I think for me the craziest part is seeing New england states like NH VT rhode island etc be conservative republican states. Gotta love those hockey loving patriots up there!

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think for me the craziest part is seeing New england states like NH VT rhode island etc be conservative republican states. Gotta love those hockey loving patriots up there!

For me it is  that a 100 year aggregate map ends up looking a little like 1960, the closest election almost right in the mid point of the range of election cycles.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think for me the craziest part is seeing New england states like NH VT rhode island etc be conservative republican states. Gotta love those hockey loving patriots up there!

For me it is  that a 100 year aggregate map ends up looking a little like 1960, the closest election almost right in the mid point of the range of election cycles.

Seems more like what a close result in 1992 could have  looked like if you flip NJ and WI Republican and MI and MO Democratic .


In 1960 it was still basically impossible for a Republican to win AL, MS , SC especially while they are losing OR and WA


Very difficult to see them also winning TX while they are losing CA

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think for me the craziest part is seeing New england states like NH VT rhode island etc be conservative republican states. Gotta love those hockey loving patriots up there!

For me it is  that a 100 year aggregate map ends up looking a little like 1960, the closest election almost right in the mid point of the range of election cycles.

Seems more like what a close result in 1992 could have  looked like if you flip NJ and WI Republican and MI and MO Democratic .


In 1960 it was still basically impossible for a Republican to win AL, MS , SC especially while they are losing OR and WA


Very difficult to see them also winning TX while they are losing CA

I have a Northeast bias. It's right on the tin.

[vileplume]

This is the average margin between the Democratic candidate and the Republican candidate in each state for the presidential elections over the same period (1920-2016):

District of Columbia - D by 72.97%
South Carolina - D by 19.53%
Georgia - D by 17.79%
Hawaii - D by 16.02%
Mississippi - D by 15.75%
Louisiana - D by 13.35%
Rhode Island - D by 12.64%
Arkansas - D by 11.61%
Massachusetts - D by 9.86%
Texas - D by 9.42%
Alabama - D by 6.52%
Maryland - D by 6.45%
New York - D by 5.25%
North Carolina - D by 4.98%
Florida - D by 4.27%
Minnesota - D by 2.53%
Virginia - D by 1.95%
Washington - D by 1.37%
California - D by 1.10%
Delaware - D by 0.61%
New Mexico - D by 0.46%
Connecticut - D by 0.30%
Illinois - D by 0.10%
Tennessee - D by 0.07%
Oregon - D by 0.04%
Missouri - R by 0.04%
West Virginia - R by 0.17%
Wisconsin - R by 1.39%
National - R by 1.62%
Nevada - R by 2.63%
New Jersey - R by 2.84%
Pennsylvania - R by 3.09%
Kentucky - R by 3.72%
Michigan - R by 4.34%
Ohio - R by 5.42%
Iowa - R by 5.57%
Arizona - R by 5.65%
Montana - R by 6.27%
Colorado - R by 7.35%
Maine - R by 7.81%
Vermont - R by 8.23%
New Hampshire - R by 8.25%
Oklahoma - R by 9.58%
Indiana - R by 10.38%
South Dakota - R by 13.79%
North Dakota - R by 15.79%
Alaska - R by 16.00%
Utah - R by 17.08%
Idaho - R by 19.35%
Kansas - R by 19.54%
Wyoming - R by 19.56%
Nebraska - R by 20.55%


This gives a Democratic lead in the Electoral College of 340-198.

Interestingly, if you just exclude 2016 it flips to a Republican lead of 272-266 (Oregon, Illinois, Connecticut and California are Republican whilst Missouri and West Virginia are Democratic).

Excluding 2012 as well gives 280-258 Republican (New Mexico and Delaware Republican) whilst excluding 2008 increases this to 292-246 Republican (Washington Republican).

[Mr. Smith]

The map of those averages relative to the nation

So basically, California is the tipping point!

But everyone's favorite, Wisconsin, is the closest.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The fact that South Carolina really adopted secret ballots only in 1950 stands out A LOT.