Pennsylvania 2020 primary #s, compared to 2018

[wbrocks67]

So, the vote is still ongoing in PA, so some of these #s are tentative - but it is looking pretty bad for Republicans.

As of Monday night 6/8:

PA-01 (Fitzpatrick): 2018 primary had D+2 composite. 2018 general had R+2 final. 2020 primary so far has D+10 composite.

PA-04 (Dean):  2018 primary had D+34 composite. 2018 general had D+27 final. 2020 primary so far has D+32 composite.

PA-05 (Scanlon):  2018 primary had D+28 composite. 2018 general had D+30 final. 2020 primary so far has D+46 composite.

PA-06 (Houlahan): 2018 primary had D+4 composite. 2018 general had D+18 final. 2020 primary so far has D+20 composite.

PA-07 (Wild): 2018 primary had D+18 composite. 2018 general had D+10 final. 2020 primary so far has D+16 composite.

PA-08 (Cartwright): 2018 primary had D+8 composite. 2018 general had D+9 final. 2020 primary so far has D+14 composite.

PA-10 (Perry): 2018 primary had R+20 composite. 2018 general had R+2 final. 2020 primary has = composite.

PA-16 (Kelly): 2018 primary had = composite. 2018 general had R+4 final. 2020 primary so far has R+10 composite.

PA-17 (Lamb): 2018 primary had D+16 composite. 2018 general had D+12 final. 2020 primary so far has D+30 composite.


Erie, Dauphin, Montgomery, Delaware, Philadelphia, and Allegheny's extension was until Tues 6/12 so probably a good chunk of votes left in all of those, which means PA-04, PA-05, PA-10, PA-16 are most effected, but still votes being added in almost all of the counties listed here.

[wbrocks67]

The most striking initially is PA-01, where Fitzpatrick likely has a big fight on his hands. PA-05 includes a good chunk of Delco, which is skewing more and more Dem. Houlahan/PA-06 is in Chester, and she’s blowing it out of the water.

PA-08’s 2018 primary total was shockingly close to the general result, so if the D+14 primary result is any indication…

PA-10 might be the biggest. The 2018 primary was 60% R, 40% D. This year it was tied, with votes still out - Dems may even overtake Rs.

PA-17 - Lamb got 100k+ votes alone compared to 58k for Parnell. That one ain’t even gonna be close.

[Lognog]

The most striking initially is PA-01, where Fitzpatrick likely has a big fight on his hands. PA-05 includes a good chunk of Delco, which is skewing more and more Dem. Houlahan/PA-06 is in Chester, and she’s blowing it out of the water.

PA-08’s 2018 primary total was shockingly close to the general result, so if the D+14 primary result is any indication…

PA-10 might be the biggest. The 2018 primary was 60% R, 40% D. This year it was tied, with votes still out - Dems may even overtake Rs.

PA-17 - Lamb got 100k+ votes alone compared to 58k for Parnell. That one ain’t even gonna be close.

PA 05 literally is Delco, but still it is the gift that keeps on giving for dems

[Orser67]

One more data point that supports my general confidence that Biden will win PA in 2020.

The most striking initially is PA-01, where Fitzpatrick likely has a big fight on his hands. PA-05 includes a good chunk of Delco, which is skewing more and more Dem. Houlahan/PA-06 is in Chester, and she’s blowing it out of the water.

PA-08’s 2018 primary total was shockingly close to the general result, so if the D+14 primary result is any indication…

PA-10 might be the biggest. The 2018 primary was 60% R, 40% D. This year it was tied, with votes still out - Dems may even overtake Rs.

PA-17 - Lamb got 100k+ votes alone compared to 58k for Parnell. That one ain’t even gonna be close.

PA 05 literally is Delco, but still it is the gift that keeps on giving for dems

Yeah, it's nice how the SEPA districts pretty much match up to counties.

PA-1: Bucks and a small part of Montco
PA-2+3: Philadelphia
PA-4: Montco and a small part of Berks County
PA-5: Delco and small parts of Montco and South Philly
PA-6: Chesco and Southern Berks (including Reading)

[Epaminondas]

Fantastic news, but what's up with outlier PA-16? It's 10 points more GOP than 2018 primary.
Did the in-person vote skew heavily rural?

Promising numbers for Biden here, he looks to be carrying 1 & 10 with his statewide win.

[Lognog]

One more data point that supports my general confidence that Biden will win PA in 2020.

The most striking initially is PA-01, where Fitzpatrick likely has a big fight on his hands. PA-05 includes a good chunk of Delco, which is skewing more and more Dem. Houlahan/PA-06 is in Chester, and she’s blowing it out of the water.

PA-08’s 2018 primary total was shockingly close to the general result, so if the D+14 primary result is any indication…

PA-10 might be the biggest. The 2018 primary was 60% R, 40% D. This year it was tied, with votes still out - Dems may even overtake Rs.

PA-17 - Lamb got 100k+ votes alone compared to 58k for Parnell. That one ain’t even gonna be close.

PA 05 literally is Delco, but still it is the gift that keeps on giving for dems

Yeah, it's nice how the SEPA districts pretty much match up to counties.

PA-1: Bucks and a small part of Montco
PA-2+3: Philadelphia
PA-4: Montco and a small part of Berks County
PA-5: Delco and small parts of Montco and South Philly
PA-6: Chesco and Southern Berks (including Reading)

one million times better than what we had before

[wbrocks67]

Fantastic news, but what's up with outlier PA-16? It's 10 points more GOP than 2018 primary.
Did the in-person vote skew heavily rural?

Promising numbers for Biden here, he looks to be carrying 1 & 10 with his statewide win.

Unclear how much is out in Erie - it was one of the counties that had an extension or mail in ballots until 6/9. The count hasn't really increased much, so interested to see how the final result is. But yeah, as it stands now, it's one of the few that looks better for Rs.

[wbrocks67]

PA-01
2018 primary: D+2 (D: 49,003 / R: 46,855)
2020 primary: D+10 (D: 89,601 / R: 73,843)

PA-04
2018 primary: D+34 (D: 58,919 / R: 29,032)
2020 primary: D+36 (D: 119,418 / R: 55,955)

PA-05
2018 primary: D+28 (D: 60,691 / R: 34,252)
2020 primary: D+32 (D: 95,406 / R: 49,261)

PA-06
2018 primary: D+4 (D: 35,636 / R: 32,375)
2020 primary: D+26 (D: 87,596 / R: 51,079)

PA-07
2018 primary: D+18 (D: 45,622 / R: 32,164)
2020 primary: D+15 (D: 75,628 / R: 55,918)

PA-08
2018 primary: D+8 (D: 36,189 / R: 31,405)
2020 primary: D+14 (D: 74,684 / R: 56,740)

PA-10
2018 primary: R+20 (D: 38,471 / R: 57,504)
2020 primary: D+0 (D: 78,024 / R: 78,152)

PA-16
2018 primary: D+0 (D: 39,152 / R: 39,412)
2020 primary: R+5 (D: 59,075 / R: 65,614)

PA-17
2018 primary: D+16 (D: 52,590 / R: 38,513)
2020 primary: D+30 (D: 111,145 / R: 59,677)

Biggest explosions compared to 2018 were PA-01 (Bucks), PA-06 (Chester), PA-10 (Dauphin), and PA-17 (Allegheny)

Based on these numbers, Dems should probably be even Tilt D in PA-01 (despite Fitzpatrick's 2018 staying power), and in PA-10 (good candidate in DePasquale, and major shift from 2018)