Croatia Elections & Politics Megathread

[Astatine]

The ultimate gridlock according to 2x1K seat projection:

Restart Coalition: 62 seats
HDZ: 51 seats (+1 diaspora safe)
Skoro's Homeland Coalition: 17 seats
MOST: 6 seats
Green-Left: 2 seats
Pametno: 1 seat
HNS-LD: 1 seat
Minorities/diaspora: 10 seats (incl. 3 SDSS likely)

The only option possible is actually a Grand Coalition of SDP and HDZ. Everything else is either mathematically impossible or politically.

Let's see what works out with 76 seats necessary for majority

Restart + HDZ = 114 seats
HDZ + Skoro + MOST = 75 seats (might get 76 if HDZ holds their second diaspora seat)
Restart + MOST + Green + Pametno + HNS + SDSS = 75 seats
Restart + Green + Pametno + HNS + SDSS = 69 seats
HDZ + MOST + Pametno + HNS + SDSS = 63 seats

A right-wing coalition/cooperation would not even have a majority and considering MOST's reluctance to work with HDZ, unlikely.
The center-left coalition could actually get supporters among diaspora/minority MPs, not sure how they stand ideologically. Including MOST would be difficult but could get them closer to 76.

I really would not be too surprised by now to witness a Grand Coalition or a snap election.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1279794470809145345

Polls close in 1 hour and a half.

[mgop]

I think SDP will have enough seats with Most and minorities.

[Mike88]

Exit Poll:

Clear victory of HDZ

61 HDZ
44 Restart
16 DPMS
  8 MOST
  8 MOZ

[Walmart_shopper]

Exit Poll:

Clear victory of HDZ

61 HDZ
44 Restart
16 DPMS
  8 MOST
  8 MOZ

Restart massively underperformed their polling, if true. Hard to see anything other than HDZ-Skoro if this holds up. Yikes.

[Astatine]

Wow, just like in 2016, SDP support was heavily overestimated in polling.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well this looks sub-optimal

[Mike88]

Wow, just like in 2016, SDP support was heavily overestimated in polling.

The Green-Left coalition, MOZ, was actually the surprise winning 8 seats and most likely will pull ahead of MOST. There could have been voters that at the last minute changed from Restart to MOZ.

Also, the exit poll doesn't project the overseas seats and minorities seats.

[Astatine]

Wow, just like in 2016, SDP support was heavily overestimated in polling.

The Green-Left coalition, MOZ, was actually the surprise winning 8 seats and most likely will pull ahead of MOST. There could have been voters that at the last minute changed from Restart to MOZ.

Also, the exit poll doesn't project the overseas seats and minorities seats.

Of the three diaspora seats at least two will likely go to HDZ. HDZ got 2 diaspora seats in 2016 and 3 in 2015.

Of the minority seats, it's almost certain that the Serbian SDSS will get 3 seats. Might be interesting to see what happens to them, especially if HDZ is closer to the overall majority than exit polls predict. They supported the HDZ minority government the last years and depending on the other minority seats and whether HNS might save one seat (or whether the Pametno coalition is willing to cooperate with HDZ?), participation of Skoro could be avoided.

[mgop]

new exit poll

hdz 62
sdp 43
skoro 14
most 9
mozemo 8

[Mike88]

Does anyone know a result page?

[Keep Calm and ...]

The page of the Croatian State Electoral Commission:

https://www.izbori.hr/site/

[Mike88]

https://slobodnadalmacija.hr/vijesti/hrvatska/prvi-rezultati-dip-a-hdz-u-cak-71-mandat-restartu-45-skori-16-u-sabor-ulaze-i-hns-te-reformisti-1030609

At 9 pm, the SEC began publishing the unofficial results of the parliamentary elections, and the data on the izbori.hr website is updated every 15 minutes.

After 22 percent of processed polling stations, the schedule of seats in Parliament is as follows:

HDZ 71
Restart 45
DPMS 16
MOZ 4 terms
MOST 4 terms
Smart and Focus 1
Reformists 1
HNS 1

[bigic]

According to the Ipsos exit poll, in the first constituency (central and western Zagreb) the left-green coalition Podemos Možemo narrowly won over HDZ and SDP coalitions.

https://twitter.com/FranKuseta/status/1279831319539744770

[Mike88]

According to the Ipsos exit poll, in the first constituency (central and western Zagreb) the left-green coalition Podemos Možemo narrowly won over HDZ and SDP coalitions.

https://twitter.com/FranKuseta/status/1279831319539744770

In that district, with almost 31% of the votes in, the results are these:

30.2% HDZ
23.8% Restart
18.0% MOZ
  9.0% DPMS
  8.1% MOST

Maybe the remaining of the returns are from more urban areas.

[Astatine]

Current seat count with 64 % of the votes counted:

HDZ: 66
Restart Coalition: 43
Skoro's Homeland Coalition: 15
MOST: 8
Green-Left: 6
Pametno: 2
HNS-LD: 1
Minorities/diaspora: 11

Assumption on some Minorities/diaspora seats:
SDSS: 3
HDZ: 2

If this were to be the final result, HDZ could try to govern without Skoro:

HDZ + HNS + SDSS = 72 seats

It should not be impossible to get some minority MPs to support this government, and I don't know much about the Pametno Coalition, but its ideological background (centrist, liberal) could allow them to support a HDZ minority government. That all would be quite unstable, but I feel to be more likely than an inclusion of Homeland into government. Skoro wouldn't want to cooperate with Plenkovic, but considering his electoral success as proof of the support of the center-right instead of right-wing course, I don't see it likely to replace the leader of a party who just scored the best result for the party in 20 years (66 seats were achieved by Sanader, as far as I know including diaspora).

[Astatine]

SDP leader Bernadic announced that tomorrow, his leadership and his role in the surprisingly bad result will be evaluated.

New numbers don't show much movement, HDZ on 68 seats in total as diaspora seat count gives them all 3 diaspora seats.

[Mike88]

Turnout was very low, 46.2%. Did the exit poll showed the age of voters? By the results, I assume that more elder voters turned out to vote rather than younger. However, I don't know if Croatia has a more elder conservative voter base and a younger leftwing voter base, or if it is the other way around like in my country.

[Astatine]

Turnout was very low, 46.2%. Did the exit poll showed the age of voters? By the results, I assume that more elder voters turned out to vote rather than younger. However, I don't know if Croatia has a more elder conservative voter base and a younger leftwing voter base, or if it is the other way around like in my country.

It is more of a guess, but as Estrella pointed out in beginning of the thread very well, HDZ is basically the party that build up Croatia. Considering this fact and their various corruption scandals largely turning off younger voters, it appears likely that HDZ has an older voter base than SDP.

On the other way around, younger voters tend to vote more pro-European and less establishment in several Eastern European countries, so I would guess that both the Mozemo Alliance and the Pametno Coalition as "newcomers" have higher support among youngsters. This would also result in HNS (as a definition of an establishment party) being rather supported by olders.

I am really not sure about Skoro tho. Could see his supporters being rather middle-aged (old enough to remember the War and having anti-Serb sentiments), but it could also be a disproportionate numbers of youngsters (anti-establishment) or elders (having more right-wing views and appalled by HDZ's centrist course).

[jaymichaud]

Final Results:
HDZ: 66
Restart Coalition: 41
Skoro's Homeland Coalition: 16
MOST: 8
Green-Left: 7
Pametno: 3
HNS-LD: 1
NS-R: 1
Minorities/diaspora: 8

[Astatine]

Final Results:
HDZ: 66
Restart Coalition: 41
Skoro's Homeland Coalition: 16
MOST: 8
Green-Left: 7
Pametno: 3
HNS-LD: 1
NS-R: 1
Minorities/diaspora: 8

Out of the minority seats, 3 go to the Serbian SDSS.

Bernadic announced his immediate resignation as SDP leader.

The following parties supported/were part of the outgoing government:

HDZ (66) + HNS (1) = 67 (ruling Coalition)
SDSS (3) + minority MPs - Hungarian, Italian, Czech/Slovak, Balkan nations, other European nations (5) = 8 (supporters)

Total: 75 seats

This constellation is just 1 seat short of a majority.

I really see a continuation of such a government as more likely than a coalition with DPMS. It would just need Pametno (3) or a defector from another party (possibly MOST, some traitor from Restart such as HNS in 2016, or a DPMS backbencher who is not offensive towards Serbs to avoid clashes with SDSS).
Like said: A coalition with DPMS would mean the replacement of Plenkovic. After this result (HDZ's best result in 20 years), I sincerely doubt this will happen.

[bigic]

Radimir Čačić, leader of NS-R (People's Party - Reformists) and its newly elected MP, has announced that he will support the HDZ government, giving it a narrow majority of 76.
https://www.jutarnji.hr/vijesti/hrvatska/ne-zelim-u-vladu-a-stromar-mi-je-neprihvatljiv-kao-covjek-mozemo-raspast-ce-se-odmah-15006794

[CumbrianLefty]

So what is the likeliest reason for the polls being so out?

[Astatine]

Radimir Čačić, leader of NS-R (People's Party - Reformists) and its newly elected MP, has announced that he will support the HDZ government, giving it a narrow majority of 76.
https://www.jutarnji.hr/vijesti/hrvatska/ne-zelim-u-vladu-a-stromar-mi-je-neprihvatljiv-kao-covjek-mozemo-raspast-ce-se-odmah-15006794

Yup, it is official, the new government will be a HDZ minority government, supported by HNS, Reformists, SDSS and the 5 other ethnic minorities. No inclusion of Skoro.

[Astatine]

So what is the likeliest reason for the polls being so out?

This article sums it up quite well:

- few polls were actually released, but most polls were supposedly not wrong about the state of the race when they were conducted
- center-left voters didn't show up, turnout estimates were much higher
- a "shy Tory factor" working if favor of HDZ (HDZ internals had them winning by much larger margins)

Additionally, I would include the following reasons:

- With corona cases going up again, I could say several people wanting to have a strong government (and then supporting the incumbent) quickly to be formed instead of months of gridlock (rally around the flag).
- Once it was clear Mozemo and Pametno as political newcomers gained momentum with them having few seats in polls, Restart was stuck in the middle role between the left and the center. Several Restart affiliates might have expected a Restart victory anyways, therefore, they chose to support the minor parties assuming that Restart needs working partners in Parliament.
- Skoro underperformed in relation to most expectations, HDZ gained some seats Skoro was expected to get, so some conservative/nationalist protest voters reluctantly supported HDZ instead of giving Restart the position of largest party.
- MOST swing to the right as conservative, anti-corruption party might have hurt Skoro, especially considering that they had some infrastructure before Skoro was lacking. The division on the right might have cost Skoro seats, as the D'Hondt seat allocation tends to benefit larger parties. Actually, HDZ just gained 1 percentage point but gained 5 seats.