Croatia Elections & Politics Megathread

[CumbrianLefty]

So what is the likeliest reason for the polls being so out?

This article sums it up quite well:

- few polls were actually released, but most polls were supposedly not wrong about the state of the race when they were conducted
- center-left voters didn't show up, turnout estimates were much higher
- a "shy Tory factor" working if favor of HDZ (HDZ internals had them winning by much larger margins)

Given the ludicrously low actual turnout, Occam's Razor suggests this as the main reason.

("shy Tories" are generally a myth)

[Astatine]

The new government was sworn in yesterday. 16 ministers are members of HDZ, additionally there is one SDSS minister and one independent.

[Astatine]

Bump to turn this into a Croatia megathread

Croats will head to the polls this year once again, as local elections are due to take place around May/June. So this will be the first litmus test for Plenković's second government, which appears to have a good standing in opinion polling, while the support for SDP crashed even more. The Homeland Coalition is struggling right now, while Most has been stable and the Green-Left alliance benefits from SDP's further collapse.

Bumped this for sad reasons tho, as the famous and controversial, but also beloved Mayor of Zagreb Milan Bandić passed away yesterday after suffering a heart attack. Bandić governed the city for almost 18 years in total (2000-2002 and 2005-2021). Out of his 18 years in office, we was absent for four months because he was in custody for corruption allegations, but changed his deputy mayor in the meantime. On the other hand, he also paved the way for many infrastructure projects within the capital of Croatia. Upon his death, he was the longest serving incumbent Mayor of a capital.
He was also famous for having married his wife again after divorcing from her and feuding with his former party SDP, only to found his own party (BM365 - Bandić Milan 365), which granted support to the center-right governments following the 2015 and 2016 elections.

The race for the Mayor of Zagreb is now completely open. Bandić could've probably won again, he won by landslide margins in 2005, 2009 and 2013 but won by only 6 points in 2017, when he beat the center-left liberal coalition candidate Anka Mrak-Taritaš (back then, she was member of HNS-LD, but then founded her own party "GLAS" which is polling at 0.1 %).
RIP.

[PSOL]

What has caused the RF to leave the Green-Left coalition?

[Astatine]

What has caused the RF to leave the Green-Left coalition?

If I remember correctly, the main reason were some disagreements about the coalitions' strategy in the Zagreb local elections. I think RF had already nominated an own mayoral candidate, while the other parties wanted to run under the banner of a joint candidate and a joint list (Zagreb is one of the cities where the elections for city council and mayor are separate). So instead of talking to RF about the further procedure, they just excluded them from further talks, effectively leading to RF leaving the coalition. Not exactly sure about that though.

[Astatine]

Local elections will take place on 16 May, possible runoffs will be held 2 weeks later. All elected offices on municipal and regional level are up for election, so this election will be the first litmus test for HDZ after their surprising victory in the last parliamentary elections.

Zagreb might be the most decisive election. The long-term mayor of Croatia's capital, Milan Bandić, passed away in February, which made the race widely open. Bandić was a true populist and generally left-leaning, and his successor - interim mayor Jelena Pavičić Vukičević - tries to benefit off his legacy.
Other prominent candidates include "Homeland Alliance" leader and former presidential candidate Miroslav Škoro, former Justice Minister Vesna Škare-Ožbolt and "GLAS" leader Anka Mrak-Taritaš (she almost bet Bandić in 2017). It doesn't seem likely either of them is gonna get elected, although they might perform disproportionally well. The SDP and HDZ candidates, Joško Klisović and Davor Filipović respectively, aren't probably gonna be elected either.
The clear favorite is Tomislav Tomašević, who was elected to Parliament in 2020 over the Podemos Možemo list. Zagreb, as usual for most European capitals, leans heavily to the left, and as he is broadly known and popular, he is the clear frontrunner. Current polls have him by double digits, but Croatian polls should always be taken with a grain of salt.

I don't know enough about the state of the race in other larger towns (population of 40,000+), but the mayor office are held by following parties right now:

- Split: HDZ
- Rijeka: SDP
- Osijek: Ind.
- Zadar: HDZ
- Slavonski Brod: Ind.
- Velika Gorica: HDZ
- Karlovac: HDZ
- Pula: IDS
- Sisak: SDP
- Šibenik: HDZ
- Varaždin: Ind.
- Dubrovnik: HDZ
- Bjelovar: HSLS

[bigic]

Bandić was a true populist and generally left-leaning

Bandić definitely is a populist, but even though he might be left-leaning, since he split from SDP, he has been aligned with the Croatian right. For example, his party has supported HDZ governments, he supported Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, the HDZ candidate, in the Croatian presidential election, and at one point far-right "Independents for Croatia" were a part of the pro-Bandić governing coalition in the city.

[Keep Calm and ...]

Exit polls for the 4 biggest cities of Croatia

https://twitter.com/DNEVNIKhr/status/1393974574254116866

[Keep Calm and ...]

Results
https://www.izbori.hr/lokalni2021/rezultati/1/

[Astatine]

All but two of Croatia's largest cities and towns will have a runoff in 2 weeks. Some somewhat educated guesses about the state of the runoffs:

- Zagreb: We Can! vs. Homeland
Safe We Can!

- Split: Center vs. HDZ (inc.)
Tossup

- Rijeka: SDP (inc.) vs. Ind.
Likely SDP

- Osijek: HDZ (inc.) vs. MOST
Likely HDZ

- Zadar: HDZ (inc.) vs. SDP
Tossup

- Slavonski Brod: Ind. (inc.) vs. HDZ
Lean Ind.

- Velika Gorica: HDZ √ (inc.)
reelected

- Karlovac: HDZ (inc.) vs. SDP
Likely HDZ

- Pula: IDS (inc.) vs. Ind.
Lean IDS

- Sisak: SDP (inc.) vs. HDZ
Lean SDP

- Šibenik: HDZ (inc.) vs. SDP
Safe HDZ

- Varaždin: Ind. (inc.) vs. SDP
Tossup

- Dubrovnik: HDZ (inc.) vs. DDS
Likely HDZ

- Bjelovar: HSLS √ (inc.)
reelected

[bigic]

Nova TV has published second round Ipsos polls for Zagreb, Split, Rijeka and Osijek, including limited vote transfer data.
https://dnevnik.hr/vijesti/lokalni-izbori-2021/ekskluzivno-istrazivanje-dnevnika-nove-tv-lokalni-izbori-2021-drugi-krug---652182.html

[bigic]

New Zagreb poll from Promocija Plus for RTL. Tomašević expectedly has a huge advantage over Škoro. Including crosstabs (by age, gender, education, ideology, first round choice, etc.)
https://www.rtl.hr/vijesti-hr/novosti/hrvatska/izbori-2021/4039706/ekskluzivno-zadnja-anketa-prije-konacne-bitke-za-zagreb-tomasevic-ima-ogromnu-prednost-pred-skorom/

[Astatine]

Updated ratings, we'll see how it goes today:

- Zagreb: We Can! vs. Homeland
Safe We Can! (flip from BM 365)

- Split: Center vs. HDZ (inc.)
Lean Center (flip)

- Rijeka: SDP (inc.) vs. Ind.
Likely SDP

- Osijek: HDZ (inc.) vs. Homeland/MOST
Likely HDZ

- Zadar: HDZ (inc.) vs. SDP
Lean HDZ

- Slavonski Brod: Ind. (inc.) vs. HDZ
Lean Ind.

- Karlovac: HDZ (inc.) vs. SDP
Likely HDZ

- Pula: IDS (inc.) vs. Ind.
Lean IDS

- Sisak: SDP (inc.) vs. HDZ
Lean SDP

- Šibenik: HDZ (inc.) vs. SDP
Safe HDZ

- Varaždin: Ind. (inc.) vs. SDP
Lean Ind.

- Dubrovnik: HDZ (inc.) vs. DDS
Likely HDZ

[Keep Calm and ...]

https://twitter.com/DNEVNIKhr/status/1399047999888711682
https://twitter.com/novahr/status/1399048131854180359

[Astatine]

Results of the mayoral runoffs:

- Zagreb (flip from BM 365):
We Can! 65 %
Homeland 35 %

- Split (flip from HDZ):
Center 57 %
HDZ 43 %

- Rijeka:
SDP 54 %
Ind. 46 %

- Osijek:
HDZ 63 %
Homeland/MOST 37 %

- Zadar:
HDZ 54 %
SDP 46 %

- Slavonski Brod:
Ind. 52 %
HDZ 48 %

- Karlovac:
HDZ 55 %
SDP 45 %

- Pula (flip from IDS):
Ind. 56 %
IDS 44 %

- Sisak:
SDP 53 %
HDZ 47 %

- Šibenik:
HDZ 64 %
SDP 36 %

- Varaždin (flip from Ind.):
SDP 51 %
Ind. 49 %

- Dubrovnik:
HDZ 60 %
DDS 40 %

Detailed results: https://www.izbori.hr/lokalni2021/rezultati/2/

Damn, my prediction was relatively accurate, guessed 10/12 cities right just based on first round numbers, the one poll and my guts. Not too bad considering my lack of knowledge about Croatian local politics.

[bigic]

The result of the local elections could have an impact on the stability of Plenković government. Radimir Čačić, the incumbent president of Varaždin County who lost to the HDZ candidate, has threatened that his party NS-R (which is a key vote) would stop supporting the government if Ivan Čehok's local party is part of the governing majority in Varaždin County.
https://evarazdin.hr/politika/cacic-na-rtl-u-plenkovic-se-neka-do-sutra-ocituje-hoce-li-suradivati-s-cehokom-391466/

[Estrella]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1449328658607448064

Možemo is most likely going to crash and burn like Škoro, but it's still nice to see.

[Estrella]

Turns out that the above is happening because SDP decided to do a Labour Party: Divisive crisis evident among Croatia’s Social Democrats

The caucus split in half - 14 MPs remained in the official SDP and 18 left to form an independent social democratic caucus. Apparently it's got something to do with some people undermining SDP candidates in the local elections, but it's all about as clear as mud.

[Astatine]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1449328658607448064

Možemo is most likely going to crash and burn like Škoro, but it's still nice to see.

♫ I think I've seen this film before... ♫

[Estrella]

DPMŠ | Domovinski pokret Miroslava Škore | Miroslav Škoro Homeland Movement
Leader: (drum roll) Miroslav Škoro | 2019 presidential first round result: 24.5% (#3)

The new kids on the block, a party founded by folk/folk rock/whatever singer and presidential candidate Miroslav Škoro. His campaign was a huge success and after only narrowly failing to get into the second round, he founded his own personality cult party. Ideologically, they're he is vaguely conservative, nationalist and Euroskeptic. I couldn't be bothered to all of his platform, but it mostly looks like meaningless fluff. Prediction: he'll score an okay result vote-wise but get screwed over by the electoral system, get into coalition with whoever is more convenient/offering more pork, quickly get bored with politics and quit.

So I just stumbled upon more... things to know about Škoro. What a shame Astatine isn't here anymore, because it really looks he's giving Alenka a run for her money

I would also add Miroslav Škoro. Yes, he was a politician, but he was a grifter for decades beforehand. He is our famous tambourine musician (Ne Dirajte Mi Ravnicu is his big hit), but he is such an opportunistic little weasel he deserves mentioning. He gained his initial fame in Yugoslavia, went to Canada during the war, fled Canada afterwards and returned (officially, he missed his homeland, unofficially, he has charges of embezzlement and tax evasion there).

He spent years emptying the cauffers of Croatia Records (our biggest music label) and founded the far-right Domovinski Pokret (Homeland Movement). He ran for President (got abysmally low number of votes), PM (also, abysmal rate), and finally, Mayor of Zagreb (again, abysmal rate, but he got to second round of voting before having his ass handed to him, I'l lelaborate below). r/croatia has had a field day dissecting him when old footage from the early 2000s of his interview resurfaced when he called nationalist polificans "floskule" (old term for sharlatans and grifters), ironically as he is now one.

He also publicly humiliated himself when he had a political debate with his opponent, now-Mayor Tomislav Tomašević (member of relatively new, grassroots political party called Možemo! [We Can!]). He came across as uncouth, unprepared and utterly clueless about the job he wanted to take, whilr Tomašević was well-prepared for all the topics at hand.

He had his foot up his ass twice in that interview; once when he accused Tomašević for being a Yugo-nostalgic (perojative for people who are nostalgic for communist Yugoslavia), which was hilarious as; 1.) Tomašević is 41 and was 10 years old when Yugoslavia collapsed and; 2.) Just before thr interview, a local newspaper issue from 1986 resurfaced where it named Škoro as the main act for a Communist rally condemning Kosovo rebellion against SFR Serbia.

But, his biggest blunder in that interview was the topic of trash burning; Zagreb has no dedicated trash burning facility and one of Tomašević's key policies is to build one. Škoro tried to refute this by insisting that there was already a trash burning place on Mirogoj. Well, Mirogoj has a biological waste burning facility, but, it's not a trash burning facility but rather, as every Zagreb native knows (and Škoro doesn't, he is not a Zagreb native), it's a goddamn crematorium! Lads, I watched the debate stoned and I apsolutely laughed my ass off the ing couch.

He also tried to use his party platform to get brownie points with Croatian nationalists by fuelling anti-Serb rhetoric and promote laws that would discriminate them (this also caused ridicule as his wife is Serbian). He eventually got ousted from his own party for alleged theft and embezzlement (he has a winery and sold 4,000 bottles of his wine to his own party....not only did he sold the bottles at retail price instead of wholesale, he also delivered only 1,200 bottles), and allegations of abuse of power (it's an open secret that he was banging his personal secretary, a mid 20s economical graduate who had unrestricted access to party's funds and Škoro boughr her expensive clothing and jewellry). Thankfully, he is out of the public spotlight as of recently.